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The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 13 May 2020, 17:47:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')It's not a binary choice. And it's not even a choice about which energy to embrace.


Then why are you leaning on NIMBY FUD?


I'm not. I'm leaning on ecological reality. There are no techno-fixes. We are in Overshoot. Ever read Catton?

"Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change" A Review
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 13 May 2020, 18:00:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')It's not a binary choice. And it's not even a choice about which energy to embrace.


Then why are you leaning on NIMBY FUD?


I'm not. I'm leaning on ecological reality.


Asg is worried or he would not be going after doomers like he does. What is goofier is most doomers here are on the lite side. So, I am finding the nutters are the techno optimist like OS and Asg who mission is to attack doomers that threaten their fragile wellbeing.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 13 May 2020, 18:15:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')his chart reflects why I focus on modern renewables like wind, solar PV, and geothermal. Declines in investment and the Law of Diminishing returns are at play, which is reflected in the slowing of the growth rates in wind and solar from previous years.
Actually investments increased in 2019. And it's not about dollars invested, It's about capacity installed. Investments only increased 1% in 2019 but annual increase in wind and solar increased 13%. This is because wind and solar costs decreased.


This is true to a large degree. However, investment dollars, reduced subsidies, and diminishing returns are always a factor. Those massive growth rates were just not sustainable. Efficiency gains are also being reached, as I noted before. But my point was that modern renewables like wind, solar, and geothermal are the growth leaders--which is why I focus on them. And you drive home my point; no matter how cheap they get, how fast they grow, or how much capacity is installed, they can't capture but a minuscule amount of market share. The new demand for energy nearly outstrips all gains. When, if ever, will that change? We have a growing population that is largely moving to urban areas where the demand for energy will double by 2050, along with food. Meat demand is expected to rise 76% by 2050. My argument has always been that meeting these demands is just not possible. We face a bottleneck.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t will use lithium-ion battery storage. Euan Mearns says that “Renewable energy storage is an impossible dream and will remain so until there is a major technology breakthrough.”
Switching over to 100% wind, solar, and storage in the short to medium term is impractical. However the US does have a shortage of storage capacity relative to the rest of the world. This is not even talking about renewable needs for storage, just the grid in general. So I think storage needs to increase. Personally I am not a big fan of lithium-ion for grid storage. I think pumped hydro, CES, flow batteries, etc are all better options.


Did you read the post by Euan Mearns I posted above that says unless a new technology is developed, grid storage is an impossible dream?
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed 13 May 2020, 18:27:11, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 13 May 2020, 18:20:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', 'A')sg is worried or he would not be going after doomers like he does. What is goofier is most doomers here are on the lite side. So, I am finding the nutters are the techno optimist like OS and Asg who mission is to attack doomers that threaten their fragile wellbeing.


Then I guess the definition of a "doomer" is someone who recognizes and acknowledges limits.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 13 May 2020, 18:29:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')ere’s an example of the misleading headlines I see so often.

“In a First, Renewable Energy Is Poised to Eclipse Coal in U.S.”
Yes, but not because renewable growth will overtake it, but that coal will be taken off-line in lieu of cheaper NG and renewables.
That's how it always works when a sea change is approaching: you first notice it in edge cases. Ex: renewables overtake coal in April, a time of seasonal low coal demand. Then renewables start overtaking coal in additional months. Finally, renewables pass coal and stay ahead.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hen electricity demand returns, so will much of coal’s participation.
The EIA doesn't agree. They feel the rebound in coal will be small relative to it's decline this year. Coal production down 170 million short tons this year, production up 28 million short tons in 2021. Coal's decline is projected to continue long term as well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he electricity generation mix continues to experience a rapid rate of change, with renewables the fastest-growing source of electricity generation through 2050 because of continuing declines in the capital costs for solar and wind that are supported by federal tax credits and higher state-level renewables targets. With slow load growth and increasing electricity production from renewables, U.S. coal-fired and nuclear electricity generation declines; most of the decline occurs by the mid-2020s.
Annual Energy Outlook 2020

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')fficiency gains are also being reached, as I noted before.
You claimed it was so, however I rebuttaled this point with several sources.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')his is true to a large degree. However, investment dollars, reduced subsidies, and diminishing returns are always a factor. Those massive growth rates were just not sustainable. Efficiency gains are also being reached, as I noted before. But my point was that modern renewables like wind, solar, and geothermal are the growth leaders--which is why I focus on them. And you drive home my point; no matter how cheap they get, how fast they grow, or how much capacity is installed, they can't capture but a minuscule amount of market share.What an odd opinion to have in lieu of simple projections that show wind and solar gaining market share year after year until they are half of the market by 2050:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Global growth trend
However, BloombergNEF has forecast that by 2050 two-thirds of the world will be run on zero-carbon energy, with wind and solar supplying 48% of global electricity by that time. Specifically, solar is expected to rise from its current 2% of world electricity generation to 22% in 2050, while wind is anticipated to climb from today’s 5% to 26%. Wind and solar energy now cheapest forms of power in two-thirds of the world

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'D')id you read the post by Euan Mearns I posted above that says unless a new technology is developed, grid storage is an impossible dream?You mean for 100% renewables? I did not propose such a scenario. In fact I specifically said I was not proposing such a scenario. Other that such a strange binary scenario, grid storage has been a proven technology for decades.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 13 May 2020, 19:18:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')ere’s an example of the misleading headlines I see so often.

“In a First, Renewable Energy Is Poised to Eclipse Coal in U.S.”
Yes, but not because renewable growth will overtake it, but that coal will be taken off-line in lieu of cheaper NG and renewables.
That's how it always works when a sea change is approaching: you first notice it in edge cases. Ex: renewables overtake coal in April, a time of seasonal low coal demand. Then renewables start overtaking coal in additional months. Finally, renewables pass coal and stay ahead.

The headline gives the casual reader the impression that renewables are overtaking coal. That is misleading. Coal is temporarily getting out of the way. And it wasn't a "sea change" it was demand destruction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')fficiency gains are also being reached, as I noted before.
You claimed it was so, however I rebuttaled this point with several sources.

Not with regard to turbines blades and PV cells. Both are near max. That was what I claimed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')And you drive home my point; no matter how cheap they get, how fast they grow, or how much capacity is installed, they can't capture but a minuscule amount of market share.What an odd opinion to have in lieu of simple projections that show wind and solar gaining market share year after year until they are half of the market by 2050:
Not at all. In 2004, I heard the same type of projections, yet new energy demand outstripped those projections and continues to do so to this day. 16 years of empirical evidence can't be denied. You do realize that to go from 2% today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you?

My projection is that wind, solar, and geothermal combined will show just a small gain in new captured market share in the REN21 2020 Report in June for 2019. Currently, just 2% for 2018.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 13 May 2020, 19:37:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he headline gives the casual reader the impression that renewables are overtaking coal. That is misleading. Coal is temporarily getting out of the way. And it wasn't a "sea change" it was demand destruction.
It was a sea change in the big picture. Recently we have had demand destruction. However coal has been on a long term decline for over a decade now while renewables have been on a long term rise. This has been a long time coming. Even if coal makes a brief resurgence to take back the crown in 2021 or 2022, it will be temporarily as long term factors are favoring renewables over coal.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot with regard to turbines blades and PV cells. Both are near max. That was what I claimed.
I rebuttaled that point too. in the big picture, focusing on this one metric is meaningless. There are a plethora of advances already on the board that will increase the performance and lower the costs of Solar PV and Wind.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot at all. In 2004, I heard the same type of projections, yet new energy demand outstripped those projections and continues to do so to this day. 16 years of empirical evidence can't be denied. You do realize that to go from 2% today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you?
Those are rates for electricity only, which we are well on track to meet. Total energy has renewables at a lower percentage. Instead of 50% it is more like 31%. Even lower if you are only talking wind and solar.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 May 2020, 19:52:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', 'A')sg is worried or he would not be going after doomers like he does. What is goofier is most doomers here are on the lite side. So, I am finding the nutters are the techno optimist like OS and Asg who mission is to attack doomers that threaten their fragile wellbeing.


Then I guess the definition of a "doomer" is someone who recognizes and acknowledges limits.


Now that you say it like that I think that is how I understood it.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 13 May 2020, 20:31:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he headline gives the casual reader the impression that renewables are overtaking coal. That is misleading. Coal is temporarily getting out of the way. And it wasn't a "sea change" it was demand destruction.
It was a sea change in the big picture.
It's still a misleading headline. It's like the headline that reads, "100% power from renewables by 2030" when they mean just electricity or just 25%. People read the headlines, not the details.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')hose are rates for electricity only, which we are well on track to meet. Total energy has renewables at a lower percentage. Instead of 50% it is more like 31%. Even lower if you are only talking wind and solar.


Ok. You do realize that to go from 7.9% today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you? How are we on track to meet those projections at .1% to .3%/year market capture? You seem to be in denial of the facts at hand. Even if you consider ALL renewables, 26.2% to 50% is still a fantasy while demand doubles.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 13 May 2020, 20:39:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'D')id you read the post by Euan Mearns I posted above that says unless a new technology is developed, grid storage is an impossible dream?
You mean for 100% renewables?


No, for storing surplus supply for use at a time of scarcity--at all. Impossible dream without new technology.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 13 May 2020, 21:15:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')k. You do realize that to go from 7.9% today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you? How are we on track to meet those projections at .1% to .3%/year market capture? You seem to be in denial of the facts at hand.
Actually you are conflating market share growth rate of all energy with with market share growth rate of electricity. Renewables have been gaining market share in the electricity market at a faster rate than .1%. In 2015 wind & solar took 4.9% of the electricity market. In 2018 they took 7.9%. That's a 1% annual growth rate, 10 times faster than your .1% growth figure suggests. Further, their costs are continuing to decline. Already they have become the cheapest new source of electricity in 2/3rds of the world. By 2030, this will be the case for the entire world. Not to mention coal & oil are getting hammered left and right in the electricity markets.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot long ago, coal was the cheapest form of energy. Now, solar and wind plants are half the cost of new coal plants. Cheap renewable energy and low-priced batteries are anticipated to lead to wind and solar producing 50 percent of the world’s electricity generation by 2050.

Renewable energy sources are beginning to take over the power sector with low-carbon alternatives producing environmental benefits at a low cost. Advances in technology are driving the price of renewable energy sources down. The dangers of climate change are setting in motion the move to renewable energy. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) published a report, which announced that the cost of renewable energy is falling at such a rapid rate that it will be a dependably cheaper energy source than traditional fuels in only a few years’ time.

The IRENA report found that solar and onshore wind are the cheapest energy sources. It states that in 2017 wind turbine prices had an average cost of $0.06 per kWh, and at times dropped to $0.04 per kWh. At the same time, the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) had fallen to $0.10 per kWh. In comparison, electricity produced by fossil fuels typically ran from $0.05 to $0.17 per kWh. This same report predicts that within the next few years, solar and wind will be able to furnish electricity for as little as $0.03 per kWh.

Renewable energy has already gotten to the point where new renewable generation is a good investment compared to new fossil fuel generation. Next, new-build onshore wind and solar will be cheaper than it costs to operate existing coal plants. The United States has already reached the point where renewable energy is crossing over from coal plants. Renewable energy generation can already replace 74 percent of U.S. coal generation with an immediate cost savings to electricity consumers, and this is expected to reach 86 percent by 2025.
What is the Cheapest Form of Energy?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')o, for storing surplus supply for use at a time of scarcity--at all. Impossible dream without new technology.
And as I said, I am not in favor of such an approach. Instead I favor using storage to store up a few hours of electricity during high supply and low demand(such as at night when the wind blows hard but energy demand is low), then releasing energy from storage during peak demand hours. For long term times of scarcity, I favor using fossil fuels or nuclear.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 13 May 2020, 22:32:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'A')lready they have become the cheapest new source of electricity in 2/3rds of the world. By 2030, this will be the case for the entire world. Not to mention coal & oil are getting hammered left and right in the electricity markets.


I hope this renewable energy momentum keeps up but that is my emotions speaking not reality. The reality is headwinds of physics and the economy to top the list. With physics it is storage and increased grid complexity. Much of renewable energy’s growth has been at the easy end and now the hard part starts. With the economy it is dramatically dropping economic activity. Sure, this may come back but will it completely? I see a delayed set of consequences coming that are not going to be pretty. Surely renewables will get caught up in this time when government and business are in a state of destructive change economically. I am not as optimistic about renewables but I do feel they will continue becuase they are a good value in many situations. I just not going to buy into the hype about them sporting these big numbers people throw around. I am doing renewables and I follow renewable news daily. In my own personal situation, my solar has not proven to be the earth changing. The cost numbers were not as good as I liked in relation to the return. I enjoy gathering solar energy but my renewables have not lived up to what I thought they would do. The numbers can be toyed with in either direction but the reality is the world is beset with many problems and energy is only one on the list. If it were the only issue, I would be more sympathetic to the optimist.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 13 May 2020, 23:50:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Then I guess the definition of a "doomer" is someone who recognizes and acknowledges limits.


The definition of a doomer is basically a killjoy who has to shoot down any and all attempts to ameliorate the problem on the basis of "perfect is the enemy of good". The end result is the FUD rhetoric against renewables is indistinguishable from paid Koch brothers shills. So by default, doomers stand for one and only one thing at the marco level: PARALYSIS. Forgive me for feeling as though such attitudes are, um, counter-productive in the short to medium-term, even if I concede that we're doomed in the long-term. I feel we owe it to the world to at least go down swinging.

The other hallmark of a doomer is that his ego is intertwined with doom itself. It's not that doomers are sadists who want people to suffer, but in the end the doomer values being right or being seen as prescient over all else. So tragedy on the world stage is to be welcomed with open arms and subsequently bent/twisted to validate the doomer narrative. COVID is just the most recent example. Doomers descend like vultures to spin every negative news story to soothe their Cassandra syndrome. You see this with Orlov coming out of the woordwork again or Gail's blog post you linked to. They all want the world to huddle and shiver at their feet, look up and beg to be told "what it all means" and "what comes next". It's all a search for some semblance of fame or glory, even if it's just a few bobbleheaders on a forum like Short and his handful of ETP die-hards.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

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-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 14 May 2020, 07:44:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hen I guess the definition of a "doomer" is someone who recognizes and acknowledges limits.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'T')he definition of a doomer is basically a killjoy who has to shoot down any and all attempts to ameliorate the problem on the basis of "perfect is the enemy of good". The end result is the


Binary crap of a very worried individual. The world is going the wrong way for the narrow minded cornucopians. Risk management and sober thinking is needed but people like Asg want to avoid that talk because it means their whole comfy life system is at risk. If you are a 6-figure guy you have trouble ahead especially if that is invested in the wrong place. An EV is not going to save you so these techno people will find their extravagant tech failing them right and left.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'F')UD rhetoric against renewables is indistinguishable from paid Koch brothers shills.


Please spare me the drama. Nobody here is doing that. Koch brothers are in a whole other class from anyone here. There are no hardcore browns here. Most are wanting to figure out renewables in relation to a human transformation and finding the 100% transition full of holes. You are just emotionally name calling.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'S')o by default, doomers stand for one and only one thing at the marco level: PARALYSIS. Forgive me for feeling as though such attitudes are, um, counter-productive in the short to medium-term, even if I concede that we're doomed in the long-term. I feel we owe it to the world to at least go down swinging.


More binary emotional crap. The counter productive is the continued digging the whole deeper with fantasy transitions instead of calling into question growth itself. Cornucopians are blind to economics and the honest science of solutions. Sure, they are smart enough on the science of the problems but then they get dishonest with the solutions. Many times, like with Asg, it is because they are so invested in their comfy life, they can’t face the change ahead. Doomers (lite) are the ones going down swinging with proactive ideas of mitigating decline.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', 'T')he other hallmark of a doomer is that his ego is intertwined with doom itself. It's not that doomers are sadists who want people to suffer, but in the end the doomer values being right or being seen as prescient over all else. So tragedy on the world stage is to be welcomed with open arms and subsequently bent/twisted to validate the doomer narrative.

Sounds like projections to me of of your own human nature. I could easily reword the above for the extremist techno optimist like you. I try to be a moderate doom voice embracing techno optimism where it shows promise. Yet, I am not going to be like the typical political persona that embraces being Republican or Democrats not allowing much deviation from the party line. I am an independent with doom and techno optimism. Many doomers are this way. It is an honest search for the truth not a cover for emotional fears.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', ' ')COVID is just the most recent example. Doomers descend like vultures to spin every negative news story to soothe their Cassandra syndrome. You see this with Orlov coming out of the woordwork again or Gail's blog post you linked to. They all want the world to huddle and shiver at their feet, look up and beg to be told "what it all means" and "what comes next". It's all a search for some semblance of fame or glory, even if it's just a few bobbleheaders on a forum like Short and his handful of ETP die-hards.

AH, as opposed to techno optimist that say nothing is really wrong and it will all get back to normal? That is the other extreme you embrace. I think fear is a good thing at this point because in crisis there is real change. One has to wade through the crap on both sides to find nuggets of truth. I have read very little from you on constructive solutions. You mainly just attack people who talk about ideas that threaten your comfy 6 figure life. That is a dead give away for a shill
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 09:18:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')k. You do realize that to go from 7.9% today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you? How are we on track to meet those projections at .1% to .3%/year market capture? You seem to be in denial of the facts at hand.
Actually you are conflating market share growth rate of all energy with market share growth rate of electricity.


Ok, I didn't mean to sound like I was conflating here. In 2018, wind, solar, and geothermal increased their share of the overall energy pie .3% from 1.7% in 2017 to 2% in 2018. 2016 to 2017, just .1%. Same for 2015 to 2016. As to electricity, modern renewables grew from 5.9% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2018. All renewables grew 1.6%. That's a doubling time of 44 years. 88 years to meet a doubling of energy by 2050. The Law of Diminishing returns says that won't happen. Again, you do realize that to go from 7.9% in electrical power today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you? I expect most of the new demand for energy will be in the form of electricity, don't you? So, that demand may be more than double for electricity. And even if it is met, it's only 25% of energy demand. 75% is heating and transportation. However, by 2050, that 25% will rise.

You can post all manner of cheapness, growth rates, projections, etc. But as long as new demand for energy outstrips nearly all gains, we are in a Red Queen Syndrome. That was the case in 2004 when I heard the same claims and it's still true today. The growth rate of renewables is just too slow to make a significant difference. What do you see changing? I see demand going up even faster as developing countries try to urbanize.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 09:22:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'F')urther, their costs are continuing to decline. Already they have become the cheapest new source of electricity in 2/3rds of the world.


The average of cost for solar PV also declined 73.8% between 2010 and 2018, and wind costs fell 22%, yet little market share was gained. So falling costs are not the whole story.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 09:33:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', ' ')I am not as optimistic about renewables but I do feel they will continue becuase they are a good value in many situations. I just not going to buy into the hype about them sporting these big numbers people throw around.


I concur. I am in no way defending fossil fuels. I believe renewables do offer alternatives to FF's but not as a replacement. The EROEI is just too low, the energy produced too intermittent and too dependent upon FF's for their very existence--not to mention the abysmal growth in market share. Where are the wind and solar factories making wind turbines and solar panels? Where are all the electric arc furnaces that will be needed to make steel? Where are the electric truck fleets and excavators to mine the materials and transport them? Where's the electric infrastructure that will be needed?
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 09:52:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Then I guess the definition of a "doomer" is someone who recognizes and acknowledges limits.

I feel we owe it to the world to at least go down swinging.


So, you would be in the bilges of the Titanic bailing like crazy as the big ship went down? Mankind has been swinging his hubris since time began. When he got the energy subsidy of fossil fuels and discovered germ theory, he let loose. He killed off his predators, did end-runs around Nature's control mechanisms, established a monetary system based upon infinite growth in a finite world and declared there were no limits. Mother Nature bats last; not mankind. Btw, I don't fit your description of a doomer in any way. I have no ego to assuage. No agenda. I only have my observations of reality to share. A messenger of the facts as I see them. In fact, reality has shown itself to be worse than any pessimism I may have harbored over the years. :)
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 14 May 2020, 13:38:30

Edit & correction:

Earlier, I posted: “As to electricity, modern renewables grew from 5.9% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2018. All renewables grew 1.6%. “
That was in error. I used the wrong year’s data. It should have read.

As to electricity, modern renewables share grew from 7.9% in 2017 to 8.3% in 2018 or .4%. All renewables share declined .3% from 26.5% in 2017 to 26.2% in 2018. Compare the two charts.

Image

Image


I also posted: "Again, you do realize that to go from 7.9% in electrical power today to 50% in 2050 while energy demand doubles is pure fantasy, don't you?" It should have read 8.3% instead of 7.9%.

2019's data will be out in June. I don't anticipate a huge jump from that .4%/yr growth rate. Any bet takers?
Last edited by MonteQuest on Thu 14 May 2020, 14:20:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 May 2020, 14:19:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Where are the electric truck fleets and excavators to mine the materials and transport them? Where's the electric infrastructure that will be needed?


You have to walk before you run.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/techno ... ing-truck/

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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