PeakOil is You
The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables
Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables
by MonteQuest » Sun 10 May 2020, 11:54:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')We are so far from hitting limits to efficiency gains it's not even funny.
It depends upon where you are looking. Efficiency gains of solar PV panels and wind turbines are nearly at max as I posted earlier. I'm pretty convinced that the EROEI of renewables is too low to support the complex industrial society necessary to produce and maintain them--without the continued support of fossil fuels. And when you add in the required storage, the EROEI plummets. Obviously, there are transmission gains to be had via HVDC, but that will require trillions in investment. Same for powerlines to move energy to facilitate the advent of everyone plugging in their EV. People will wring everything they can out of every system there is going forward, but it will not replace the energy density of oil and other fossil fuels. Same with conservation efforts. They will just perpetuate unsustainable growth.
75% of world energy will come from fossil fuels through 2040 (IEA). We must remember that 65% of the increase in developing country energy demand will come from the Asia Pacific region. 2/3rds of all new oil demand will be for jet fuel and diesel in this region. IEA forecasts that the pace of electricity demand growth will exceed that of total energy demand growth. IEA is forecasting a 62% increase in global power generation between 2017 and 2040, the vast majority of which will come from developing countries. The fastest growth will occur in Africa, where power generation is expected to jump 140%. The Middle East (96%), Asia Pacific (84%), and Central and South America (68%) also will experience tremendous growth. This is where renewables and efficiency gains need to be deployed and the US needs to invest and help facilitate investment. Why? Because that is where the people will be born that will demand the energy. Without investment, these folks will reach for fossil fuels. And with oil now so low people are paying someone to take it off their hands...We face a bottleneck that we will not pass through.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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MonteQuest - Expert
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables
by kublikhan » Sun 10 May 2020, 12:31:12
If fossil fuels will be used in the future, then that makes my point that much stronger. Efficiency gains must be wrung out of fossil fuels as well. Nor do I agree with your point that wind and solar have hit the end all be all of efficiency. We are nowhere near hitting the limits of what we can do with these technologies.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Future of Solar Cells
To outpace current solar cells, a new design would need to be able to capture more light, transform light energy to electricity more efficiently, and/or be less expensive to build than current designs. Energy producers and consumers are more likely to adopt solar power if the energy it produces is equally or less expensive than other, often non-renewable, forms of electricity, so any improvement to current solar cell designs must bring down overall costs to become widely used.
The first option, adding hardware that allows the solar cells to capture more light, does not actually require that we abandon current solar cell designs. Electronics can be installed with the solar cell that let the cell track the sun as it moves through the daytime sky. If the solar cell is always pointing at the sun, it will be hit by many more photons than if it was only pointing towards the sun around midday. Currently, designing electronics that can track the position of the sun accurately and consistently for several decades at a reasonable cost is an ongoing challenge, but innovation on this front continues. An alternative to making the solar cell itself move is to use mirrors to focus light on a smaller, and therefore cheaper solar cell.
Another route to improving the performance of solar cells is to target their efficiency so they are better at converting energy in sunlight to electricity. Solar cells with more than one layer of light-capturing material can capture more photons than solar cells with only a single layer. Recently, lab-tested solar cells with four layers can capture 46% of the incoming light energy that hit them. These cells are still mostly too expensive and difficult to make for commercial use, but ongoing research may one day make implementing these super-efficient cells possible.
The alternative to improving the efficiency of solar cells is simply decreasing their cost. Even though processing silicon has become cheaper over the past few decades, it still contributes significantly to the cost of solar cell installation. By using thinner solar cells, material costs decrease. These “thin-film solar cells” use a layer of material to harvest light energy that is only 2 to 8 micrometers thick, only about 1% of what is used to make a traditional solar cell. Much like cells with multiple layers, thin-film solar cells are a bit tricky to manufacture, which limits their application, but research is ongoing.
In the immediate future, silicon solar cells are likely to continue to decrease in cost and be installed in large numbers.
Years from now, we are likely to see alternatives to silicon appearing on our solar farms and rooftops, helping to provide clean and renewable sources of energy. These improvements have and will continue to be made possible by increasing bulk manufacturing of solar cells and new technologies that make the cells cheaper and more efficient.
The Future of Solar is Bright$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Future of Solar Cells
To outpace current solar cells, a new design would need to be able to capture more light, transform light energy to electricity more efficiently, and/or be less expensive to build than current designs. Energy producers and consumers are more likely to adopt solar power if the energy it produces is equally or less expensive than other, often non-renewable, forms of electricity, so any improvement to current solar cell designs must bring down overall costs to become widely used.
The first option, adding hardware that allows the solar cells to capture more light, does not actually require that we abandon current solar cell designs. Electronics can be installed with the solar cell that let the cell track the sun as it moves through the daytime sky. If the solar cell is always pointing at the sun, it will be hit by many more photons than if it was only pointing towards the sun around midday. Currently, designing electronics that can track the position of the sun accurately and consistently for several decades at a reasonable cost is an ongoing challenge, but innovation on this front continues. An alternative to making the solar cell itself move is to use mirrors to focus light on a smaller, and therefore cheaper solar cell.
Another route to improving the performance of solar cells is to target their efficiency so they are better at converting energy in sunlight to electricity. Solar cells with more than one layer of light-capturing material can capture more photons than solar cells with only a single layer. Recently, lab-tested solar cells with four layers can capture 46% of the incoming light energy that hit them. These cells are still mostly too expensive and difficult to make for commercial use, but ongoing research may one day make implementing these super-efficient cells possible.
The alternative to improving the efficiency of solar cells is simply decreasing their cost. Even though processing silicon has become cheaper over the past few decades, it still contributes significantly to the cost of solar cell installation. By using thinner solar cells, material costs decrease. These “thin-film solar cells” use a layer of material to harvest light energy that is only 2 to 8 micrometers thick, only about 1% of what is used to make a traditional solar cell. Much like cells with multiple layers, thin-film solar cells are a bit tricky to manufacture, which limits their application, but research is ongoing.
In the immediate future, silicon solar cells are likely to continue to decrease in cost and be installed in large numbers.
Years from now, we are likely to see alternatives to silicon appearing on our solar farms and rooftops, helping to provide clean and renewable sources of energy. These improvements have and will continue to be made possible by increasing bulk manufacturing of solar cells and new technologies that make the cells cheaper and more efficient.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he cost of solar continues to plummet, as this year’s price per watt of solar energy averaged around $3. Yet while the efficiency of current run-of-the-mill solar panels still hovers around 16-18 percent, traditional silicon solar panels have only reached half of their theoretical efficiency potential. And new materials science breakthroughs are now on track to double this theoretical constraint, promising cheap, efficient, and abundant solar energy.
Disruptive players are rapidly iterating on solar cell products to enhance their aesthetic appeal. Several of these technologies focus on integrating solar panels more seamlessly into our everyday lives. Imagine if every window and every glass surface could capture solar energy, for instance. New advancements in transparent solar panels will bring this future to fruition. Only five years ago, transparent solar panels (or solar cells embedded in transparent surfaces) could not harness nearly enough energy to justify cost and commercialization. In 2013, their efficiency stood between a mere 1 and 3 percent. What’s more, the opacity of these clear surfaces was still far too high, allowing little light penetration. Today, however, solar cells and solar capture materials are finally becoming sufficiently versatile for integration in glass and other aesthetic surfaces.
Ubiquitous Energy has developed a transparent solar cell called ClearView Power, achieving 9.8 percent solar panel efficiency. A color-neutral coating for glass, ClearView Power can absorb and convert non-visible light (ultraviolet and infrared) into electricity. It can theoretically be applied to any window of an existing building. Perhaps most notable, however, is the company’s claim that its panels are as clear as glass itself, obstructing no visible light.
To put this in perspective, Ubiquitous has nearly doubled the efficiency of glass solar panels just one year after researchers at Michigan State University announced a similar panel with mere 5 percent efficiency in 2018. Within the next decade, commercialized solar-capturing glass could begin to populate every skyscraper, school, and residential rooftop, generating abundant and newly democratized energy. And now, opaque solar panels are also on track to becoming similarly unobtrusive (not to mention aesthetic).
Numerous startups have begun tackling solar tiles and solar roofing technologies, aiming to integrate them seamlessly into the construction of homes and mid-scale structures.
Materials and Efficiency
Historically, inefficient electrical production has stood as the greatest barrier to large-scale solar adoption. Yet the efficiency of photovoltaic cells has improved exponentially since their invention. Today, most active solar panels average 18 percent efficiency, meaning they capture 18 percent of the energy to which they are exposed. But new advances have dramatically increased that number. Several companies such as Solar City, Panasonic, and SunPower have achieved solar panels with between 22-23 percent efficiency, a staggering 25-27 percent efficiency increase from standard panels. Or take SolSunTech, an NYC-based startup that has achieved 33 percent solar panel efficiency in just a few years.
Currently, these high-efficiency cells and panel solutions are prohibitively expensive because of the materials used to build them. However, they notably demonstrate that today’s commercial technology is nowhere near the upward limit of solar efficiency. As materials science breakthroughs drive down cost, commercial solar products will become increasingly demonetized and democratized, just as solar efficiency continues to skyrocket.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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kublikhan - Master Prognosticator
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Re: The Green New Deal and the Growth of Renewables
by kublikhan » Sun 10 May 2020, 12:33:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')resh off the first-ever American Wind Week, the Department of Energy (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) released a new report finding wind energy cost reductions of 50 percent are possible by 2030. That's on top of the 66 percent cost reduction since 2009. Envisioning the wind plant of the near-future—a "collection of intelligent and innovative machines operating in a highly coordinated way"—NREL expects advancements in wind turbine design, materials and controls to unlock major performance improvements and cost reductions.
Advanced turbines will produce significantly more electricity, allowing wind to provide the lowest-cost form of electricity in many states and regions, without any policy incentives. NREL's findings demonstrate how the federal wind Production Tax Credit (PTC) is successfully driving economies of scale and efficiency improvements, and address concerns that wind power deployment will drop as the PTC phases down.
The wind turbine of the future will be much larger, sit atop a taller tower, use next generation blades, and incorporate intelligent controls and remote monitors. Towers reaching 135 meters will access more consistent wind resources, while next-generation blades stretching more than 70 meters will help the wind turbine capture more of that resource as efficiently as possible. This will enable capacity factors more than 50 percent, all while the installed cost per kilowatt falls and plant life expectancy grows.
Wind Power Costs Could See Another 50% Reduction by 2030Advanced turbines will produce significantly more electricity, allowing wind to provide the lowest-cost form of electricity in many states and regions, without any policy incentives. NREL's findings demonstrate how the federal wind Production Tax Credit (PTC) is successfully driving economies of scale and efficiency improvements, and address concerns that wind power deployment will drop as the PTC phases down.
The wind turbine of the future will be much larger, sit atop a taller tower, use next generation blades, and incorporate intelligent controls and remote monitors. Towers reaching 135 meters will access more consistent wind resources, while next-generation blades stretching more than 70 meters will help the wind turbine capture more of that resource as efficiently as possible. This will enable capacity factors more than 50 percent, all while the installed cost per kilowatt falls and plant life expectancy grows.
Further, your statement of hydro being nearly maxed in the world is incorrect as well. While the room to grow hydro in the developed world is limited, there is still much room to grow hydro in the developing world:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Abstract
In this study, we assess global hydropower potential using runoff and stream flow data, along with turbine technology performance, cost assumptions, and consideration of protected areas. The results provide the first comprehensive quantification of global hydropower potential including gross, technical, economic, and exploitable estimates. Total global potential of gross, technical, economic, and exploitable hydropower are estimated to be approximately 128, 26, 21, and 16 petawatt hours per year, respectively. The economic and exploitable potential of hydropower are calculated at less than 9 cents per kW h. We find that hydropower has the potential to supply a significant portion of world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by region. Globally, exploitable hydropower potential is comparable to total electricity demand in 2005. Hydropower plays different roles in each country owing to regional variation in potential relative to electricity demand. In some countries such as the Congo, there is sufficient hydropower potential (>10 times) to meet all electricity demands, while in other countries such as United Kingdom, hydropower potential can only accommodate a small portion (<3%) of total demand.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world’s total technical feasible hydro potential is estimated at 14,370 TWh/year, of which about 8,082 TWh/year is currently considered economically feasible for development. About 700 GW (or about 2,600 TWh/year) is already in operation, with a further 108 GW under construction. Most of the remaining potential is in Africa, Asia and Latin America:
Technically feasible Economically feasible
potential: potential:
Africa 1750 TWh/year 1000 TWh/year
Asia 6800 TWh/year 3600 TWh/year
North + Central America 1660 TWh/year 1000 TWh/year
South America 2665 TWh/year 1600 TWh/year
At present hydropower supplies about 20 per cent of the world's electricity.
A number of countries, such as China India, Iran and Turkey, are undertaking large-scale hydro development programmes, and there are projects under construction in about 80 countries. A number of countries see hydropower as the key to their future economic development: Examples are Sudan, Rwanda, Mali, Benin, Ghana, Liberia, Guinea, Myanmar, Bhutan, Cambodia, Armenia,
Kyrgyzstan, Cuba, Costa Rica, and Guyana.
Potential exists in about 150 countries, and about 70 per cent of the economically feasible potential remains to be developed. This is mostly in developing countries.
The oil barrel is half-full.
