[Newfie]

No doubt we will have to reconsider what the “finer” things are. M

I agree storage is the killer.

Quite some time ago now Scientific American had a piece that suggested posts of renewables in the SW, with big HVDC lines connected to deep pressurized gas lines in the NE, I think. The idea was to use the surge capacity to pressurize the gas mines. Then when power was needed to let the pressurized gas burn through turbines to create base load power.

But here’s the other part to this. How much lower do we truly need? Look out at night and see the waste glowing at you. Personally we get by with 600 watts of solar and wind turbine, but we are living (6 months) in the tropical trade winds. So that’s kinda like cheating. Chicago can’t pull this off.

I agree we are very unlikely to do anything intelligent. Which will just make the shock worse when it comes.

The real answer will be how the bottle neck survivors fare. And none of us will live to know that.

So what do we do in the meantime? I’m stumped.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')Monte,

Interesting. You have a link for that graphic?

I wonder how he came to define the minimum required EROI.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', ' ')How much lower do we truly need?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') agree storage is the killer.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'A')ccording to the second link

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')hat's not what's been happening in this country. Total energy demand has been more or less flat for over the last decade. Coal plants have been retired.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')e also don't have the grid capacity to move renewable power if we had it. I have 155 large wind turbines 5 miles south of me. They often are not turning. I asked them why, and they said the line capacity does not exist to move the power generated. Just part of the boondoggle hype to sell wind turbines without the infrastructure to support them.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')nergy demand has fallen due to outsourcing of much of our industrial production to other countries. Energy demand is flat due to the GFC and declining GDP. Retired coal plants have been replaced largely with NG.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')he old creaking grid infrastructure is not just a problem for wind, but for all power sources and consumers. The grid is in serious need of an upgrade anyway as transmission problems impact far more than just renewables.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd therein lies our conundrum. Our system only works in one direction-growth. Conservation is a deathknell. It reduces economic activity. Efficiency gains leads to greater use-Jevons' Paradox. And there is no waste in our system that isn't paid for before it is wasted--it's part of the economy.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')e are talking about overall USA energy demand. It has fallen for the reasons stated. That's hardly debatable.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')ncorrect. If energy demand fell because of outsourcing our industrial production, we would see a decline in industrial output. We did not. We saw an increase.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')e saw an increase in less energy-intensive industrial production. Much of the energy-intensive production had been outsourced before the GFC. My point is that conservation and efficiency gains are not solutions to an overshoot condition. In fact, they perpetuate it.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sweeney', 'I')n the long term we all simply have to use much less energy, maybe even get used to having intermittent power supplies.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')low energy intensive industries that got outsourced the most:

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot before the GFC. From the late 80's to the early 2000's many energy-intensive industries were off-shored to other countries, like steel.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'W')hy are you now talking about the 80s when my original comment was talking about the last decade:

[kublikhan]

Anecdotal micro-economic citations? I quoted GDP figures which capture the entire economy. I guess you missed that. Let me repost it for you then:

Fact 1: From 2010-2019 US GDP grew 22%.
Fact 2: From 2010-2019 US industrial production rose 17%.
Fact 3: From 2010-2019 US electricity sales declined by 0.1%.
Fact 4: In Q3 2008 US GDP was $14.83 trillion. In Q3 2019 it was $21.5 trillion.

Do you see why your idea makes no sense? GDP and industrial production grew during this time period. And they have far surpassed their pre-financial crisis peak. These facts conflict with your theory that the financial crisis caused those two to fall and have not yet recovered. Therefore we have to look at other reasons for the flat US electricity demand during this time period.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')conomic growth picked up a little in the U.S. in 2017. But electricity use fell, according to data released Tuesday by the Energy Information Administration. It's now been basically flat for more than a decade. Measured on a per-capita basis, electricity use is in clear decline, and is already back to the levels of the mid-1990s. Electricity use rose and rose and rose and then ... it didn't anymore.

The 2017 numbers make clear that higher gross domestic product no longer necessarily requires more electricity. There's not a whole lot new to say about what's causing it: mainly increased energy efficiency (driven to a remarkable extent by the rise of LED light bulbs).

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'G')DP and industrial production grew during this time period. And they have far surpassed their pre-financial crisis peak. These facts conflict with your theory that the financial crisis caused those two to fall and have not yet recovered.

[kublikhan]

Of course energy consumption would be higher if we had 3.5% GDP growth. Yet even 2.2% growth adds up to 22% over the period of a decade. 22% growth in GDP, 0% growth in energy consumption. It is a good thing for per capita energy consumption to fall while GDP is growing. It means we are using our energy inputs more efficiently to achieve higher economic outputs. This is exactly the conclusion the EIA came to. They note some of the efficiency improvements have come from market forces. IE: lower electricity usage = lower costs to do business. Others come from government mandates: Air conditioners need higher SEER ratings, cars need higher MPG ratings, lights switch to LED, etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]EIA: Total electricity sales fell in 2015 for 5th time in past 8 years
Total electricity sales in 2015 fell 1.1% from the previous year, marking the fifth time in the past eight years that electricity sales have fallen. The flattening of total electricity sales reflects declining sales in the industrial sector and little or no growth in sales to the residential and commercial building sectors, despite growth in the number of households and growth in commercial building space. Some improvements in energy efficiency have been market driven, reflecting the interest of consumers and businesses in reducing their electricity consumption and expenditures. Other improvements, mainly related to electricity use in homes and commercial buildings, have been driven by federal and state policies. Examples of policies at the federal level include energy efficiency standards for appliances and lighting equipment.

Residential
Standards such as the lighting standards to phase out incandescent bulbs during the 2012–14 time period decreased residential demand for electricity.

Commercial
Standards to improve efficiency for major end uses such as lighting and space conditioning equipment have helped to moderate growing commercial building energy demand. Total electricity sales in 2015 fell 1.1% from the previous year, marking the fifth time in the past eight years that electricity sales have fallen. The flattening of total electricity sales reflects declining sales in the industrial sector and little or no growth in sales to the residential and commercial building sectors, despite growth in the number of households and growth in commercial building space.

Industrial
Electricity sales have declined at an annual rate of 0.9% from their peak in 2007 to 2015. Electricity-intensive industries have grown at about the same pace as the rest of the industrial sector, and efficiency improvements in these industries have contributed to declining electricity sales to industry.