[Tanada]

Nuclear War isn't really fitting in this discussion so I moved those posts over to the correct thread. Please continue that discussion in the appropriate place, not here.
nuclear-war-dieoffs

[C8]

Globalism isn't dying- its growing.

More and more western nations are being filled with really old people who can't make their own things and would rather order from China than go across the street to the store.

Western nations are also becoming more filled with immigrants who are under-performing in schools and won't be able to learn high tech manufacturing.

Left wing regulations on pollution, discrimination, safety, etc. are forcing businesses to close down and move to nations with fewer rules.

Lawsuits are easy to launch in your own nation, but world trade agreements make them difficult to win against businesses in other nations. This is leading to offshoring.

Europe and America are becoming countries with tons of old white people, under educated immigrants, excessive rules, and endless lawsuits. Corona will not stop the fundamentals here.

And the cherry on the top: China is buying political power inside of nations by gaining control over their corporations. Foreign contributions are being laundered through local big businesses. Ford, BMW and Audi will deliver the bags for the lawmakers' votes.

The rest of the world? They want China more than ever.

[evilgenius]

I think much more than the death of globalism, people are going to be angry at their governments when the pandemic is over. That anger may actually rise up to the level where folks question embedded order within society. I don't know if I trust any random generation to deal with those sorts of issues. God forbid, the conspiracy theorists rule the day.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')That anger may actually rise up to the level where folks question embedded order within society.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')That anger may actually rise up to the level where folks question embedded order within society.

[Newfie]

Our society has a looong way to go downhill.

Just as a point of reference, a past incident.

Shortly after Gettysburg there were conscription riots in NYC. They destroyed the conscription office, looted an armory and generally ran amok looting and drinking. The Mayor asked for outside help and got troops hot from the Gettysburg battle, in no mood to fool around.

Order was restored shortly, between 300 and 1,000 rioters dead. They weren’t keeping much in the mood to keep records.

Things can get much uglier and still survive.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Yor ... raft_riots

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')That anger may actually rise up to the level where folks question embedded order within society.

[REAL Green]

For the record I would have voted for Tulsi. She was treated like an ugly step sister and this shows how deep in decline the DNC is. Biden has to be the worst candidate EVER! I am not going to vote this year for the first time in my life becuase the choices are just so bad. All of them BTW on both sides but what disgust me the most is the liberals who have become deranged with emotions and now will destroy the country if it means removing Trump. I can't stand the identity politics and the hijacking of the media with corporate shills the force behind the news. The corruption and criminality of the remove Trump forces in the deep state is the worst this country has ever produced. The modern liberal voters are just sheeples for these powerful forces driving them with emotions. Liberals are now regressive not progressive. I never liked science denying conservatives but that is how regressive liberals label me now if I criticize them. I am independent not a lap dog.

[evilgenius]

I think we are living in an Orwellian cycle, begun with an inclination to gain revenge for Nixon. The likes of Karl Rove had that as motivation. We can do the special prosecutor too, became a mantra. The special prosecutor was supposed to be something that was invented only for Watergate. Then each new administration was plagued by it.

For years you couldn't be an actor without everybody saying that you deserved all of the nutcases who came up to you. Then princess Diana died. But we had already crossed a line. Clinton got stung for doing what Kennedy probably did every week in the Oval Office. Gingrich was about the Republicans being pissed that they had been out of power. That whole 'contract with America' thing was another mass manipulation of the people brought about by appealing to individual causes.

We were never going back. And all of the good people who might want to run the Unites States realized it. No good person wants to give up their privacy in order to run the country. People like Trump are lining up to. When a good person does something they aren't proud of, they get embarrassed. Their very reaction gives them away as being deeper than some. People like Trump don't get embarrassed, indicating some sort of elemental self-understanding that recognizes others, they deflect. We will ignore, as well, when we won't forgive. Being PC makes a person recognize everything they do officially, but we don't live life officially. And neither do the talented people who would run the country best. We've just got the person we deserve. The same can be said of the other choices, both for Trump's office and for the legislature.

[evilgenius]

And even that may have been a continuance of sorts, derived out of our American self-impression that we really were something. After all, the Europeans had been beaten down so severely by WWII that Americans could get away with it. Without America, there would have been no winning that war. Roosevelt couldn't have been elected today. Somebody like Trump would have put his son in law in Eisenhower's place. He would have said he liked Churchill, before he said he didn't. Before he said he did. Normandy would have been met by an atomic bomb or two because it wouldn't have happened until 1950.

[Shaved Monkey]

The aftermath of this depression will be interesting as Countries still have locked borders and governments that have money starts throwing it at infrastructure to try and create jobs.
Everyone will be looking inward to try and rebuild their economies, re-establish manufacturing, local tourism,there will be a push to maintain pre-existing export markets but demand will be lower due to unemployed former customers.
China will be out of this earliest and ready to throw some money and influence around especially infrastructure in developing countries and through its Belt and Road projects.

[REAL Green]

Bad news for Boeing and Airbus but more so Airbus. They are both too big to fail but Boeing has its military side which will see less decline. Boeing was in tatters anyway from the Maxout fiasco. What is next in the airline industry? Definitely too many planes but also it is surly an economic environment of consumers who fly and play differently. We are probably seeing peak tourism which is another bad for Europe. This is more than social distancing it is about lower affluence. Less business travel too as businesses learn remote work and meetings make sense. Travel and Tourism are significantly discretionary so in hard times like what is ahead these industries will be hammered lower. In regards to emissions, this could be a bright spot from a degrowth perspective. Smart degrowth policy would embrace this change but I doubt it will be proactively embraced but instead forced on society by decline. Peak globalism means peak travel and tourism. I feel we are there.

“Brace For A Monday Massacre: Buffett Liquidates All Airline Holdings As Berkshire Sees Another Leg Lower”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brace ... re-remains

“Assuring that Monday will be a bloodbath for Trannies (that would be the transportation stocks you perverts), Buffett justified his decision as follows: "The world has changed for the airlines. And I don’t know how it’s changed and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way,” he said. “I don’t know if Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of the extended period." But "I think there are certain industries, and unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt by a forced shutdown by events that are far beyond our control." "When we bought [airlines], we were getting an attractive amount for our money when investing across the airlines,” he said. “It turned out I was wrong about that business because of something that was not in any way the fault of four excellent CEOs. Believe me. No joy of being a CEO of an airline." "“I don’t know that 3-4 years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year .... you’ve got too many planes." Realizing that he won't be alive by the time a turnaround eventually happens, he clarified that he made the decision and that he lost money on his investments. “That was my mistake.” “The airline business -- and I may be wrong and I hope I’m wrong -- but I think it’s changed in a very major way,” Buffett said. “The future is much less clear to me.”

[C8]

Congress will bail out the airlines in the name of national security (I really wish there was a special sarcasm font for those last two words)

[gollum]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'C')ongress will bail out the airlines in the name of national security (I really wish there was a special sarcasm font for those last two words)

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gollum', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'C')ongress will bail out the airlines in the name of national security (I really wish there was a special sarcasm font for those last two words)

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') bet Buffet had actionable intelligence the Government is not going to bail airlines out in a way an investor like Buffet would profit from so he bailed out

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') bet Buffet had actionable intelligence the Government is not going to bail airlines out in a way an investor like Buffet would profit from so he bailed out

[Newfie]

Dumping airlines is a no brainer.
Same with cruise ships, maybe more so.

Some things are just obvious.

It’s a small market but I think there will be a glut of catamarans on the market to cheap. There are various charter companies who sell an investor a yacht and agree to put in charter for some years. The owner gets a few weeks on the boat and in the meantime the charter fees pay the mortgage, dockage and maintenance.

Now those owners have a mortgage, dock fees, maintenance fees, insurance, and no off setting charter income for who knows how long. If the islands can get their stuff together to allow unfettered flights before the next season it won’t be too bad. But if they can’t, then a lot of owners will need to get out.

There will be a lot of pressure to resume flights, but then there is a lot of pressure to stop the virus. Interesting times.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gollum', 'T')hey might try but unless they're willing to actually take ownership and massively subsidize them they'll never be able to even come close to breaking even. It would have to be dammed near free to fly before a lot of people will get on an airliner again. Maybe, just maybe, they could refocus primarily on moving cargo and carry passengers as a sideline and survive.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'D')umping airlines is a no brainer.
Same with cruise ships, maybe more so.

Some things are just obvious.

It’s a small market but I think there will be a glut of catamarans on the market to cheap. There are various charter companies who sell an investor a yacht and agree to put in charter for some years. The owner gets a few weeks on the boat and in the meantime the charter fees pay the mortgage, dockage and maintenance.

Now those owners have a mortgage, dock fees, maintenance fees, insurance, and no off setting charter income for who knows how long. If the islands can get their stuff together to allow unfettered flights before the next season it won’t be too bad. But if they can’t, then a lot of owners will need to get out.

There will be a lot of pressure to resume flights, but then there is a lot of pressure to stop the virus. Interesting times.