PeakOil is You
The death of Globalism
Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15
by onlooker » Thu 09 Apr 2020, 20:34:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', 'I')t appears we have entered a new era but what this will be is still uncertain. It is uncertain because it hit so fast. The central banks are going full MMT out of necessity. The risks to liquidity are just to great to allow the markets to sort this one out. Vladimir Lenin said “In Some Decades, Nothing Happens; In Some Weeks, Decades Happen”. I really think this is a defining period with the end of globalism’s assent. Economics defines politics so this will surely alter the way people cooperate and compete. I don’t think the markets will be allowed to crash like they used to but what will change is a decline in real wealth so the markets will be little more than a façade of appearance of wealth when the reality is much less will be there. Global value chains driven by the raw greed for yields can never be matched in regards to production. Value chains will adapt be being smaller and shorter. On the other hand, a world of less could be a world that can scale better actually offering more wealth in well-being. People are going to have to try to do more locally if they want more. Localism is the best system for the public and private good. Globalism will remain but this virus checked its advance. Let’s hope that the level this all settles to offers opportunity for more rational human activity found in localism.
Very well said Green. And welcome to the nuthouse haha. Seriously, we are entering in a myriad of ways a different era for human societies in a holistic sense ie. in all facets. This is the era of contraction. Forced contraction via limits to growth. And if we are smart voluntary contraction or degrowth. So, yes localization is part of that scaling back. We must also implement workable strategies to control and curb our population. Our collectine human impact on the Biosphere and demand on resources simply cannot be sustained much longer.
So, economic throughput MUST decline as well as population growth. No longer can we separate economics from the environment. They must be inextricably linked as a unit in our current and future policies. We must embrace and navigate contraction for the sake of posterity
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 15
by REAL Green » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 06:46:13
This is definitely a new economic era. China and Europe are doing the same but they do not represent the same global reach as the dollar represents so this is a massive move towards a completely managed global market. Will the Fed be able to backtrack? Their tapper of last year was a lame attempt to normalize. I really think normality is gone. It was gone before but now the stake is in the heart of free markets.
I am curious to see how far the FED goes with the traditional beneficiaries who are first in line for the money so profit handsomely. Will there also be new restrictions for arbitrage and riskless profiting? I don't think it matter "paying dollars on the penny" for this new economic system. In a sense it is universal basic income at the top.
The key point that needs to be seen through this fog of consequences is actual economic activity. You can construct fiat safety nets and ceilings but you can't make fiat activity. What results is deflation, inflation, and combined in stagflation. Eventually the distortions will wash down the toilet of hyperinflation in the end if taken too far. Activity is organic like grass.
The issue now is moral hazard and the corruption factor. Free markets when allowed to operate properly allow real price discovery that is the best way to produce a unit of economic activity. Until the corruption factor that leads to private profit at the publics expense which leads to where we are at in late stage capitalism today. Now in this new arrangement we will have a system primed to mal-invest because of economic safety nets at the top. Bureaucrats can’t mean test like real free market price discovery? We need only look to the 20th century and the Soviet system to see this. You can’t save everyone on a sinking ship and you can’t make the grass grow.
Is this late stage capitalism’s retirement party? How long can it last? Will nations cooperate at this level? Will there also be a new global currency regime to replace the excessive influence of the dollar? Now that the dollar has been taken to this new level, I doubt other nations will want to be as reliant on it. Yet, there are no real alternatives. To get to a global currency there would need to be common agreement. Will we end up with regional currencies and a greatly reduced globalism? Has all the gold buying been a secret admission a new global currency system is ahead? Lots of question and exciting dangerous times because a global Minsky Moment could be ahead.
I am curious to see how far the FED goes with the traditional beneficiaries who are first in line for the money so profit handsomely. Will there also be new restrictions for arbitrage and riskless profiting? I don't think it matter "paying dollars on the penny" for this new economic system. In a sense it is universal basic income at the top.
The key point that needs to be seen through this fog of consequences is actual economic activity. You can construct fiat safety nets and ceilings but you can't make fiat activity. What results is deflation, inflation, and combined in stagflation. Eventually the distortions will wash down the toilet of hyperinflation in the end if taken too far. Activity is organic like grass.
The issue now is moral hazard and the corruption factor. Free markets when allowed to operate properly allow real price discovery that is the best way to produce a unit of economic activity. Until the corruption factor that leads to private profit at the publics expense which leads to where we are at in late stage capitalism today. Now in this new arrangement we will have a system primed to mal-invest because of economic safety nets at the top. Bureaucrats can’t mean test like real free market price discovery? We need only look to the 20th century and the Soviet system to see this. You can’t save everyone on a sinking ship and you can’t make the grass grow.
Is this late stage capitalism’s retirement party? How long can it last? Will nations cooperate at this level? Will there also be a new global currency regime to replace the excessive influence of the dollar? Now that the dollar has been taken to this new level, I doubt other nations will want to be as reliant on it. Yet, there are no real alternatives. To get to a global currency there would need to be common agreement. Will we end up with regional currencies and a greatly reduced globalism? Has all the gold buying been a secret admission a new global currency system is ahead? Lots of question and exciting dangerous times because a global Minsky Moment could be ahead.
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Re: Opening up the economy
by REAL Green » Thu 23 Apr 2020, 06:44:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '[')
We actually do need an example like Georgia to solidify a bit to what degree lock down is even effective. The numbers will tell.
We actually do need an example like Georgia to solidify a bit to what degree lock down is even effective. The numbers will tell.
I am in agreement with you in theory. In reality, I am not sure there is any way to measure how well a population engaged in lock-down. If people are cut off from restaurants they may go to the store more often or hang out with friends elsewhere.
There is a growing amount of evidence that urban teens and young adults are meeting in large groups. Shooting have caused the police to break up enormous parties...But it really doesn't matter now anyway- we are opening up no matter what. Debate is happening in public for appearance sake, but behind the scenes Governors are panicking over the unemployment and tax revenue stats...Everything Govs are putting out about following guidelines and making decisions from those rules is for show- they know there is no turning back. Just watch- not a single one will reverse course- not one. Watch. We are opening up [i]because there is no other option anymore. The economic nightmare ahead, if they fail, is like nothing the US has seen in maybe 90 years. The numbers are that bad.
Globalism 1 is over. This great turning is more than this pandemic. It has been a tension of the last decade with an undulating plateau of growth and decline. We see new tech and wealth generated by that productivity to only be reduced elsewhere by problems and failure. We have hit the abstract ceiling of growth. There are still forces of growth and they will continue to support civilization. Inevitably forces of triaged degrowth will be entertained by politicians who know that tough decisions are a career ending problem but they have no choice.
The pandemic was the pin that popped the globalism 1 bubble. This pandemic is not that severe compared to what it could be. The issue is civilizations inability to accept nature’s way of managing species with Darwinian survival of the fittest. In this society no one can die or there is anger and blame. This took many decades to overcome the Darwin reality with science and medical efforts so it will take time to get over it. In globalism 2 there will be less wealth to deal with medical efforts to save all. Medicare for all is just rationed care. It likely is a good policy if it could be implemented right but in today’s world of moral hazard a good policy gets ruined pretty quick by people seeking advantage over shared sacrifice.
The problem with the response to this pandemic is similar to the response to climate change and that is denial of consequences. We built up a system of globalism 1 that was not resilient to travel and a way of life that is urban/suburban and mobile. The interconnectedness of complicated networks in a complex system makes solutions as bad as the underlying problem. In climate change the attitude is green growth when the only thing that works is degrowth with less affluence. So, what we get is the Paris accord that is a complete joke. China and India continue to grow with the idea that eventually sustainable development will allow green activity. The science of the problem is good but the science of the solutions a trap.
The pandemic response is a similar failure in this regard that you can shut down an economy and avoid death when shutting down the economy invites death too. The balance has been tipped with towards the medical scientist at the expense of those who are at the edge of the system barely surviving now. The affluent educated liberal class can sustain sacrifice. Deplorables at the bottom can’t. You take away their livelihood to save nursing home residents who have a year or two to live in a macro sene is inviting failure. You take away people lives to save the weak and those living bad behavior of obesity and smoking all because of this medical mentality of nobody should die. It does not add up.
This is nobody’s fault in a sense even if the virus escaped a lab. It is a consequence of the lack of resilience and poor wisdom of globalism 1. The poor wisdom is perusing knowledge and affluence at any cost and thinking everyone can be saved. In globalism 2 we will see the acceptance of decline because it will be systematic and widespread. The triage of degrowth will happen becuase there is no other option. It may be disguised with fake solution just like climate change. This opening up of the economy is a triage policy disguised with guidelines that will in many cases be ineffective. It is inevitable especially in places with low death rates the policy will be adapted by a public questioning the sacrifices and seeing a generalized failure of guidelines to be implemented with results.
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Re: Opening up the economy
by Newfie » Thu 23 Apr 2020, 07:48:10
Green,
Earth AND humanity desperately need to adapt a Degrowth policy. Degrowth, at least in the beginning, will entail a certain degree of hardship if for nothing else than we need to learn new ways. I think it’s fair to make an analogy to an addict in the early stages of withdrawal. Eventually, if successful, we will get to the point where we can long for the cigarette without lighting up. We are not there yet.
Earth AND humanity desperately need to adapt a Degrowth policy. Degrowth, at least in the beginning, will entail a certain degree of hardship if for nothing else than we need to learn new ways. I think it’s fair to make an analogy to an addict in the early stages of withdrawal. Eventually, if successful, we will get to the point where we can long for the cigarette without lighting up. We are not there yet.
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Re: The death of Globalism
by Tanada » Thu 23 Apr 2020, 10:27:07
Perhaps Covid will really achieve this wonderful goal for all of us?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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