[mmasters]

"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

[Plantagenet]

The part about global oil demand continuing to increase seems right to me.

There are hundreds of millions of people in China, India, Africa, etc. who are striving to achieve a western style lifestyle, including car ownership. That will continue to put an upward pressure on global oil demand for the foreseeable future.


Rush hour traffic in New Delhi, India

Cheers!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '&')quot;The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '&')quot;The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Rush hour traffic in New Delhi, India
Cheers!

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '&')quot;The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')What I don't understand is how people can see the amount of cars and trucks burning gas and diesel every day and ponder that EVERY GALLON of such fuel burned produces roughly 20 lbs. of CO2, and then claim that humans can't possibly affect the climate, ergo AGW is a hoax. Oh, and think about the sheer magnitude of growth of such cars over the past 6 or so decades, and what that does to the numbers.

[Tanada]

For those sick to death of politics lets try getting back to the focus of this website, shall we?

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil could come in 2028 due to pandemic

James Osborne 11/2/2020
3 minutes

WASHINGTON — The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic is suppressing oil demand to such a degree that some energy analysts are questioning whether it will accelerate society's transition from the fossil fuel.
a crane in the dark © Elizabeth Conley, Houston Chronicle / Staff Photographer

Analysis released Monday by Rystad Energy, an independent research firm in Norway, predicts that oil demand will now peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2028, two years earlier than they predicted before the virus struck.

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"The slow recovery will permanently affect global oil demand levels," said Artyom Tchen, senior oil markets analyst at Rystad. "The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short-term and in the long-term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioral changes that will also affect oil use."

RELATED: On Gulf Coast, is carbon storage the next big thing?

Right now, global oil demand is averaging about 89.3 million barrels per day, a 10 percent decline from last year. And Rystad is predicting that it won't rebound to those levels until 2023, as government lockdowns intensify with rising infection rates ahead of winter in the northern hemisphere.

And there could be longer term shifts in energy use, Rystad says, as businesses rely more on teleconferencing platforms for meetings and tourists avoid airplanes for their vacations.

At the same time, industry and governments in Europe and Asia are not backing off their clean energy goals, despite the economic fallout.

Electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 14 percent of total global car sales by 2025, reaching 80 percent by mid-century, Rystad said.

"The pandemic will greatly alter the peak oil demand reckoning moment, both in terms of timing and volumes," Tchen wrote. "This will help oil substitution gain speed and inevitably take global consumption to lower levels quicker, hand in hand with the energy transition."

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'F')or those sick to death of politics lets try getting back to the focus of this website, shall we?

[ralfy]

"Real peak oil" started back in 1979.

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... k-oil.html

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '&')quot;Real peak oil" started back in 1979.

https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... k-oil.html

[dashster]

What did the people like Colin Campbell who predicted a worldwide peak before 2020 miss? How much of the reserves that they didn't see were American shale and how much was regular crude in other parts of the world?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', 'W')hat did the people like Colin Campbell who predicted a worldwide peak before 2020 miss?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Right now there is oil stranded in various places due to government problems— just like there was in Russia and Iraq before the invasion. Oilish stuff is waiting to be mined in various places— at a price. LTO may or may not ever be profitable, I can't guess. The US could discontinue efficiency standards, or reimpose even stricter at a whim, who knows?

That's what it boils down to, who knows? I'm pretty sure nobody. And all the "they've been predicting it for 100 years" arguments are just as useless. They are using the exact same set of data as the linearization except to justify their prediction that because there has never been a peak, there never will or not soon. Again, pretty useless.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dashster', 'W')hat did the people like Colin Campbell who predicted a worldwide peak before 2020 miss?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')They got pretty close tho—all things being equal...

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'p')roof of how poorly folks understood this concept in the first place.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'p')roof of how poorly folks understood this concept in the first place.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
There are ways of solving this problem,