[theluckycountry]

Gold goes up in response to monetary inflation, that's why it went up so much over the 1970's
Oil price collapsed because demand collapsed. It doesn't take that much of a fall in demand to reduce prices. Look at covid.

[TheWalrus]

Not sure how to use Reply on this board.
To AdamB - not quite sure what your post was about and so I have no response.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheWalrus', 'N')ot sure how to use Reply on this board.
To AdamB - not quite sure what your post was about and so I have no response.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'G')old goes up in response to monetary inflation, that's why it went up so much over the 1970's
Oil price collapsed because demand collapsed. It doesn't take that much of a fall in demand to reduce prices. Look at covid.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheWalrus', 'N')ot sure how to use Reply on this board.
To AdamB - not quite sure what your post was about and so I have no response.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheWalrus', 'N')ot sure how to use Reply on this board.
To AdamB - not quite sure what your post was about and so I have no response.

[theluckycountry]

3 posts! Wow, you really must want to get a point across

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '3') posts! Wow, you really must want to get a point across

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')

[theluckycountry]

No Response



No Response

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')not quite sure what your post was about and so I have no response.

[theluckycountry]

Back to a Carless Future
The Honest Sorcerer
Sep 09, 2024

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]Common wisdom holds that if oil is ever to become really scarce, fuel prices would reach astronomical levels and long lines would form in front of gas stations. Reaching peak net energy from oil, however, could turn this logic on its head: we might be running out of cars sooner than oil itself — and not because of the roaring success of electrification.

Long time readers need not to be introduced to the idea of our net energy predicament. After centuries of plundering the planet for resources, the extraction of raw materials and fossil fuels from easy to reach deposits slowly came to an end. As new (unconventional) wells and mines — aimed at replacing lost production from rich sources — keep demanding more and more energy, however, less and less will remain for other uses in the economy. As a result we will inevitably hit an inflection point — acting as an invisible ceiling to our global energy and resource production — beyond which growth turns into contraction.

With peak oil being finally admitted as true after decades of denial, and having a solid understanding of the role it plays in our economy, we can safely assert a thing or two. First, it really does not matter if we plan to replace oil and gas with nuclear or “renewables”. After decades of hand waving all of these “alternatives” remained hopelessly reliant on fossil fuels in every single step of their lifecycle. Mining, transportation, pouring concrete, building infrastructure — among many other things — are still heavily dependent on the availability of cheap and abundant diesel fuel, making all the heavy lifting and extraction of resources possible (1). Consequently, less oil will mean less solar panels, less wind turbines, less batteries, less uranium fuel rods, less niobium (needed to build fusion reactors), less thorium, and ultimately: less hopium.

This geology-induced (and rapidly growing) energy scarcity can be expected to provide an additional boost to the already ongoing economic contraction experienced throughout the most well-to-do regions of the world. Returning to the main topic of this article, the question poses itself: how will the car industry — an especially resource and energy intensive branch of the global manufacturing ecosystem — respond to this net energy crunch then? Ask any mainstream economist, and you would get the same instant reply. ‘The current (“cyclical”, “transitory”, “geopolitical” — make your pick) economic downturn will force auto makers to “temporarily” reduce investments (practically halting new car development projects), and to produce less vehicles in response to lower market demand.’ Sure, but what will these “experts’ say when the realization, that the fossil fuel bonanza is over, hits? Now, this is where things take a rather interesting turn.

Motor vehicles are not the same as twenty or thirty years ago. I’m not talking about those bells and whistles like sharing car keys with your smartphone or those ubiquitous backseat baby radars. I’m talking about more and more cheap plastic and low-end metal components under the hood… Not to mention the proliferation of those electronic control units, sensors and various emission and fuel consumption control devices — the failure of which could lead to an expensive visit to the nearest mechanic. Who, by the way, would be forced to replace entire mechanical units, as he could no longer ‘repair’ anything in the traditional sense of the word (i.e. to restore something damaged, faulty, or worn to a good condition).

Cramming ever smaller cc turbocharged (and overstretched) engines into ever heavier cars did not quite help to improve the situation either… So while it was not unusual to see vehicles running multiple hundreds of thousands of miles with just regular maintenance and cheap repairs, today’s cars will unlikely to see their two hundred thousandth mile. Not only will their components fail one after the other, but replacing those without a sophisticated supply chain of spare parts could also become nigh on impossible.

You see, car manufacturers — and in many cases their tier one suppliers, too — are nothing but assembly plants at the very end of a six continent supply chain involving tens of thousands of smaller suppliers. A shortage at a highly specialized component supplier (or set of suppliers) can choke the industry for weeks, months if not years: just think about the recent chip misery. With higher complexity comes even more choke-points and potential failure modes, making today’s vehicles a nightmare to maintain in the long run.

High complexity also means high cost, making new models unaffordable to most people. Is it any wonder then that the average age of vehicles on the road just keeps growing? Viewed from a net energy perspective, it’s not terribly hard to figure out what’s going on. Rising net energy scarcity puts a squeeze on energy intensive jobs, leading to lay-offs and plant closures. This is especially true in the automotive industry with German auto brands leading the charge, due to higher logistics, energy and labor costs. Well, energy is the economy, as the saying goes. No cheap and abundant energy, no economy (2)...

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]Back to a Carless Future
The Honest Sorcerer
Sep 09, 2024

[theluckycountry]

Unfortunately for us the Peakoil movement, so to speak, was usurped very early by a lot of wannabe journalists who went about promoting their own concept of what the world would be like when we passed the peak. Among them were some flakey scientist types like educator Richard Heinberg. He lent a certain credibility to the doomsday predictions but it was all based on his 1/4 acre backyard suburban farm and the fact he rarely drove but instead globe trotted to conferences on jet liners.

He was an example of the ivory town dwellers. A man with position in the education establishment that actually knew very little about the real world. I too was sucked in by clowns, for 6 years and more. I sold my V8's and began preparing for the end of civilization. Now there was nothing wrong with that. It was fun and there were no downsides unless you want to count the expensive restaurant dinners I denied myself. I actually learnt some good real world skills and saved a lot of money, money I put to work in solid investments. While my friends were going all-in with bank shares and CDO's I was purchasing Gold and Silver at very cheap prices (by today's standards)

Needless to say, many of them lost their shirts in the GFC and found their personal debts growing ever larger. Indeed today many of them still have huge debts, and that's going to be a problem for them as they head towards retirement. My straightened lifestyle had the bonus effect of allowing me to retire before 60 while they are all still working and will be for at least another 5 years and more. Mice on a wheel, running round and around still trying to figure a way out from under all the debt that won't strip them of their retirement accounts. Of course if the stock markets collapse again like in 2008 it won't matter, there will be no retirement accounts to speak of.

The doomsday message was good, it forced many of us to give up the bigger is better bullshit lifestyle for a more prudent lifestyle. No one should have debt after their home is paid off, that was how it was 50 years ago. You pay it off and you're free, but not today. You can be a millionaire and live carefree or you can be a millionaire and be worried and in debt and all comes down to expectations and peer pressure. Now that the effects of Peakoil are really working their way through the Western economies you really want to be debt free and invested in real things, things that oil bought in the past. The 21st century is shaping up to be a shitshow and not at all like they promised in the year 2000. I was so hopeful back then, a utopian dream future with passenger flights into space and robots cleaning my house. Ahhh but for the good old dreams.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he first common fear about robot vacuum camera privacy is outsiders gaining unauthorised access to the device's video feed or recordings. In a story that went viral in 2022, pictures of a female sitting on a toilet, captured by a robotic vacuum cleaner, circulated around the Internet.24 Oct 2023

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'U')nfortunately for us the Peakoil movement, so to speak, was usurped very early by a lot of wannabe journalists who went about promoting their own concept of what the world would be like when we passed the peak. Among them were some flakey scientist types like educator Richard Heinberg.

[theluckycountry]

Well I got tired of looking across the forum for an appropriate place for this.

Pipedream or stroke of luck? Pakistan finds hope at bottom of the sea
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eptember 9, 2024
Synopsis
Pakistan has discovered a significant deposit of petroleum and natural gas in its territorial waters, offering hope amidst its economic crisis. The reserves could potentially reduce the country's energy import bill, but substantial investment and time are required for exploration and extraction. Pakistan's economy continues to struggle with debt, inflation, and political instability.

[theluckycountry]

It's a Global auction, for food, for gasoline, for sugar and coffee and rubber and good motorcycles even. Who can afford to pay as the reserves of this stuff diminishes? Coco' We have all heard of that shortage, Cadbury has found an alternative and has it in most of their chocolate now, it tastes like garbage so I only buy Nestle. That changed here only 2 years ago but the change came in mid-2009 when they replaced cocoa butter with palm oil. (according to lairipedia.) For 12 years poorer nations had to put up with that but recently us here too. Coffee shortages are not nice either. We simply can't grow enough or cheaply ship enough to supply the world like we used to so someone has to miss out.

This is Peakoil in action, not little agrarian communities with people cycling around with baskets full of vegetables like we were persuaded to believe in 20 years ago. No, Huge filthy crime ridden cities where less food an energy comes in year by year. I remember a woman on a forum 15 years ago, she went and joined a community and lived in a Yurt. She had to pay to get in and there was work to do, growing vegetables and perhaps repairing bicycles lol. Anyway it was run by Nazis she said, a guy who was a real dictator and his clique of enforcers. She was past middle age and looking to relax a bit but every morning it was up and Adam and off to till the soil. Needless to say she left, and probably lost her establishment fee lol. There will be no idyllic little communities, they just don't happen, and if one did arise I imagine 1000 migrants would flood in and upset the apple cart.

Peak oil really seems to be shaping up as a potential nightmare in many countries and rapid depopulation seems the only real answer. The Thanos solution.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')This is Peakoil in action, not little agrarian communities with people cycling around with baskets full of vegetables like we were persuaded to believe in 20 years ago.