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Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020's

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 15:24:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 't')his is nothing more than a tempest in a teapot.


What it is...is nothing more than Chris Martenson trying to run a business on doom-mongering. You know, Peak Prosperity and all that.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 19:22:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Ghawar has been depleting since it was first brought on stream.


Why waste our time with an irrelevant statement that could be said about every oil field in the world?

The key point here is that the first independent review of production of Ghawar was recently released as part of the ARAMCO bond prospectus, and it shows that production at Ghawar has declined over 20% over the last several years.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 20:09:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he key point here is that the first independent review of production of Ghawar was recently released as part of the ARAMCO bond prospectus, and it shows that production at Ghawar has declined over 20% over the last several years.


NO the key point is decreased production at Ghawar whether it is natural or due to managed production levels has been more than made up for by increases elsewhere. Spinning a picture of doom because there is less production at Ghawar doesn't work anymore.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 21:12:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')ecreased production at Ghawar .... has been .... made up for by increases elsewhere.


True enough. Even though Ghawar production is down, total oil production from KSA still hasn't peaked.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 18:56:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')ecreased production at Ghawar .... has been .... made up for by increases elsewhere.


True enough. Even though Ghawar production is down, total oil production from KSA still hasn't peaked.

Cheers!

To be fair, we don't know why production is down, but it might well have to do with relative costs vs. a major geological trend change.

KSA has been playing the swing producer to some extent, re trying to keep oil prices in a moderate range -- and this has made the news re putting strains on their national budget, etc.

Perhaps (and this is just speculation based on economics, not oil production know-how), they found it cheaper to let Ghawar decline naturally in the short run and ramp up other prospects. As I understand it (and again, I could be wrong as I'm not in the industry), sometimes to exploit more resources in such giants, SERIOUS infrastructure spending is required up-front, to realize the increased production for X years. The KSA might prefer to do such spending if and when oil prices get steep enough to more easily justify it.

(Or of course, it could be completely different.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 20:07:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')To be fair, we don't know why production is down, but it might well have to do with relative costs vs. a major geological trend change......Perhaps (and this is just speculation based on economics, not oil production know-how), they found it cheaper to let Ghawar decline naturally in the short run and ramp up other prospects.


KSA has been extremely tight with information on their oil production. Thats why the data releases in the ARAMCO bond prospectus are so important----they provide the first independent assessment of the current status of Ghawar and other Saudi oilfields.

The revelation that Ghawar oil production is down over 20% from its peak has attracted a lot of attention. Since I am a scientist I tend to put a lot of weight on the actual data, and the data shows production has recently dropped. I find it interesting how many people don't accept that data at face value.

As far as your suggestion that Aramco might have shifted oil production elsewhere because it is cheaper for Aramco to produce oil elsewhere, I personally doubt thats the reason because Ghawar is KSA's main field and its well known that oil production at Ghawar can be done very very cheaply. In fact, for decades oil at Ghawar has been among the least expensive to produce in the entire world.

The Saudis know the geology and reservoir characteristics at Ghawar extremely well, the access is excellent and the infrastructure is already in place to do more drilling, to store the oil, and to transport it to market. Theres no evidence the Saudis have stopped or slowed the drilling they do there all the time to keep production up....but production is falling nonetheless.

Almost certainly it would be more expensive for Aramco to explore for oil in new areas, work up the data and find new fields, drill test wells in remote new areas and then develop new infrastructure to produce any oil found there, and even more new infrastructure to store the oil and more infrastructure to transport new oil to market. NOPE....IMHO its unlikely they shifted their attention away from Ghawar in order to produce oil more cheaply.... There might be a strategic or political reason for it, but it probably doesn't save them any money.

Given the fact that oilcos have a well known tendency to produce their best prospects first, in order to maximize their profits, my suspicion is production at Ghawar is dropping because some areas of the field just aren't producing much oil anymore---the water cut is getting higher and higher, to the point that its now up to 98% in at least one of the sub-fields.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 20:51:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince I am a scientist I tend to put a lot of weight on the actual data, and the data shows production has recently dropped. I find it interesting how many people don't accept that data at face value.


once again, it matters why the production levels are lower not the fact they are.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s far as your suggestion that Aramco might have shifted oil production elsewhere because it is cheaper for Aramco to produce oil elsewhere, I personally doubt thats the reason because Ghawar is KSA's main field and its well known that oil production at Ghawar can be done very very cheaply. In fact, for decades oil at Ghawar has been among the least expensive to produce in the entire world.


once again read the prospectus or at least the excerpts I have supplied from it. Aramco points out that they manage their fields to optimize recovery factors and take advantage of oil grade demand changes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Company actively manages its prolific reserves base in accordance with the Kingdom’s laws and regulations to maximise long-term value while optimising ultimate recovery from its fields. Because of the size and number of its fields and MSC, the Company is able to maintain its desired level of overall production by tapping into new reservoirs when required to improve long term value through portfolio capacity optimisation. This approach, which differs from the typical industry practice of maximising production rates per field, is more capital efficient given the nature of the resources available and leads to more stable production and higher ultimate oil recoveries.
Furthermore, the Company’s MSC and integrated logistics network allow it to vary crude oil production, which combined with their compatibility with global refining systems, provides the Company with a unique ability to respond to changes in demand for the Company’s crude oil grades.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lmost certainly it would be more expensive for Aramco to explore for oil in new areas, work up the data and find new fields, drill test wells in remote new areas and then develop new infrastructure to produce any oil found there, and even more new infrastructure to store the oil and more infrastructure to transport new oil to market. NOPE....IMHO its unlikely they shifted their attention away from Ghawar in order to produce oil more cheaply.... There might be a strategic or political reason for it, but it probably doesn't save them any money.


All of their fields are now integrated into the Smart Field system whereby all drilling, completions, production, separation, transport etc. (essentially all activities) are captured in real time and integrated into their full field models. They have published on this. Now that all of the integration of surface facilities has been completed (the megaprojects) the cost to drill and complete at Ghawar will be essentially the same as at Shaybah, Khurais or any of the other fields. The depths are similar, number of laterals required similar. The only time when costs will be different is when they are drilling a new sidetrack versus a new well. Given at these newer fields the drilling of new wells to reach MSC levels was complete by 2010 all that remains is drilling new sidetracks to make up for lost production. Why they would move their activities elsewhere is the demand for super light oil (eg: Shaybah) may be higher because of lost production from other countries of the same grade (Libya) or there may be greater Asian demand at a certain time for heavier oil such as produced at Saffaniyah.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')iven the fact that oilcos have a well known tendency to produce their best prospects first, in order to maximize their profits, my suspicion is production at Ghawar is dropping because some areas of the field just aren't producing much oil anymore---the water cut is getting higher and higher, to the point that its now up to 98% in at least one of the sub-fields.

As Aramco says they are not behaving like Western companies but rather because of their large reserves and flexibility they are actively managing their fields.

And as to the comment about 98% water cut. The area with 98% water cut was where they were running the CO2 disposal and enhanced recovery evaluation program. It was specifically selected in a part of Ghawar that had been completely swept and depleted years ago in order to see if they could still recover additional oil. The part of the reservoir that has the bulk of the 48 billion bbls remaining is almost certainly produced at the same water cut it has been for a number of years (40%) mainly because they manage it with horizontal wells and low drawdown. But given actual lifting costs in Saudi Arabia are only about $4.50/bbl they could easily afford to produce wells to very high water cut for a long time. There are many fields in the world that have been producing at greater than 90% water cut (some from the very start). You just need to be able to deal with the additional water through separation and either reinjection or treatment and reuse.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 21:47:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')....as to the comment about 98% water cut. The area with 98% water cut was where they were running the CO2 disposal and enhanced recovery evaluation program....in a part of Ghawar that had been completely swept and depleted years ago in order to see if they could still recover additional oil.


Those parts of Ghawar with a 98% water cut aren't producing much oil today. Isn't that obvious? :lol: :-D :idea: 8)

If you accept that point then now consider the effect of rising water cuts in the rest of Ghawar.

As the water cut progressively increases in other areas, oil production from those wells will tend to decrease through time. And we know the water cut is progressively increasing in other areas of Ghawar. In various presentations Aramco has said that "the water cut was about 32% in 2003, and ranged from about 27% to 38% from 1993 to 2003.[15] By 2006, North Uthmaniyah's water cut was about 46%.[16][17]"

I haven't seen any updates on the current water cuts at Ghawar, other then the 98% reported in one area, but mostly likely they are going higher and higher in many areas of Ghawar. This will tend to reduce oil production rates.

Lets do some math and see how that works....if x number of wells had 30% water cuts in 2003 and they have 60% water cut today, then if we hold everything else constant the amount of oil produced would drop by half just due to the increasing water cut.

And voila! the oil production rate at Ghawar is indeed falling. The new data show that oil production rates have fallen so much that they are more than 20% lower then they were a few years ago.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 22:26:49

I$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'f') you accept that point then now consider the effect of rising water cuts in the rest of Ghawar.

As the water cut progressively increases in other areas, oil production from those wells will tend to decrease through time. And we know the water cut is progressively increasing in other areas of Ghawar. In various presentations Aramco has said that "the water cut was about 32% in 2003, and ranged from about 27% to 38% from 1993 to 2003.[15] By 2006, North Uthmaniyah's water cut was about 46%.[16][17]"


Aramco has stated as late as 2010 (presentation by Saleri I believe) that they had gotten water cut managed to about 40% across the fields. The early higher water cuts were a result of water coning along fractures which they intersected with early wells. Use of newer seismic along with the advent of MRC wells allowed them to avoid the fractured zones and hence avoid water coning. The water influx now is just a product of the flood front, which they are managing. And as I said before wells can be produced at very high water cuts...you just need to produce higher total fluid volumes which is not a problem in wells with such high permeability (higher drawdown) and be able to deal with the additional water. This was discussed at length in the Saudi Arabia thread over a decade ago.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ets do some math and see how that works....if x number of wells had 30% water cuts in 2003 and they have 60% water cut today, then if we hold everything else constant the amount of oil produced would drop by half just due to the increasing water cut.


apparently, neither math nor oil and gas production are in your wheel house. Oil production can be kept at the same level by producing more total fluid and dealing with the additional water. That is especially possible at Ghawar due to high well productivity index. The wells have always been produced at less than maximum drawdown and especially so with the long reach horizontals. That leaves lots of room to fiddle with total fluid production levels.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 12:08:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Aramco has stated as late as 2010 (presentation by Saleri I believe) that they had gotten water cut managed to about 40% across the fields.


1. Obviously they have a problem with rising water cuts. In spite of your child-like faith in the capability of the Aramco engineers, its not possible to "manage" the rising water-oil interface and stop it from rising as more and more water is injected into the field.

2. 2010 is now nine years ago. There's been a lot of production and a lot more water injection since then, and the oil-water interface has risen still higher.

3. Its not unreasonable to suspect that water cuts in pre-existing wells are higher now then they were nine years ago.

4. Rising water cut percentages in production wells are a possible reason why production has fallen over 20% from the peak at Ghawar.

5. Please refer to my post above to the see math explaining how this works.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 14:23:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). Obviously they have a problem with rising water cuts. In spite of your child-like faith in the capability of the Aramco engineers, its not possible to "manage" the rising water-oil interface and stop it from rising as more and more water is injected into the field.


Of course it is. This is a huge field. The water injection is peripheral and encroaches naturally from the edges of the field leaving high oil saturation in the middle (unless a fracture is intersected where water will cone into the wellbore). There is 48 billion barrels of oil left in that zone of high oil saturation. You are living in a world of "oh the Saudis are lying about their reserves, Ghawar is failing....etc, etc." that was endemic on this site a decade ago and you were tossing the same idea out on another thread just a few months ago. This has proven to be completely wrong. Do you actually realize how big 48 billion bbls of oil is? That makes it still number 1 or 2 in terms of oil field sizes in the world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). 2010 is now nine years ago. There's been a lot of production and a lot more water injection since then, and the oil-water interface has risen still higher.


and the wells are drilled away from the oil water interface. The total oil column height was 1300 feet and the gross reservoir height was 250 feet meaning that the higher parts of Ghawar at it's current depletion almost certainly do not have a bottom water contact. As the water front proceeds wells are produced until there is too much water and then they are either shut-in or converted to injectors. That is the way any field is produced. But there is a huge amount of Proven reserves left here. About the same size as the US total oil reserves at end of 2017.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'). Rising water cut percentages in production wells are a possible reason why production has fallen over 20% from the peak at Ghawar.


Just as them deciding not to drill as many new laterals in existing MRC wellbores as they had been or to manage production down to a certain level that allows them to increase production elsewhere would result in lower production.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '5'). Please refer to my post above to the see math explaining how this works.


what part did you not get about managing higher water cut by producing more total fluid and hence maintaining oil production? That is how the math works, or at least it does for those of us who actually worked in the industry.

The bottom line here is with 48 Gbbls of proven reserves left Ghawar is easily capable of being produced at a much higher rate than 3.5 MMbbl/d. In 2013 a paper was published that dealt with the statistics of global depletion and decline rates. What that paper demonstrated was that the mean depletion rate post peak across all the fields reviewed (350 Giant fields) was ~10% per annum and that includes many fields that do not have the attractive reservoir and fluid mobility characteristics that Ghawar has.

Hook, M et al, 2013. Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 372. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0448

Based on that level of annual depletion if the Saudis were producing flat out their daily production would be ~13 Mmbbl/d. The level they are producing at now is ~3%/annum leaving enormous room to increase production if it made sense to do so in terms of their two stated goals...maximize overall recovery factor across the country and take advantage of changing global demand for certain crude types. The fact that they make a big deal about managing their fields to an average of around 2% depletion /annum suggests method to their "madness".
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 19:25:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou are living in a world of "oh the Saudis are lying about their reserves...


Now you are lying. I've never said that and I don't think that and I didn't post those words.

In fact, back here in the real world, I've made a point of basing my comments on the data contained in the latest Saudi bond Prospectus.

If you want to dream up dumb ideas and then argue with yourself about your own dumb ideas, you are welcome to do so but please don't use a phony quote to try to claim your dumb ideas have anything to do with me.

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 21:05:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow you are lying. I've never said that and I don't think that and I didn't post those words.


lets see July of 2018 your quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he sale has already been postposed several times. The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves, apparently because they don't want the world to know how close to depletion Ghawar and their other legacy oil fields are in.

This is consistent with news reports that KSA is telling Trump its impossible for them to raise their production to bring down oil prices


and maybe a day later you said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd whats more, forget about the IPO they've been preparing too. They're not going to do that either. They don't want anybody else to see the books or check those claims about oil reserves, don't you know, because their claims might be specious and they might get sued for lying about their oil reserves.

Saudi lying about their oil reserves? Why, perish the thought! 


and when called out on this nonsense you responded:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he WSJ article cites ARAMCO insiders as saying they fear making disclosures during the IPO process. Considering that the principal data that ARAMCO has that is relevant to the IPO is all oil related, I don't see how you can rule out the idea that ARAMCO does't want to make full disclosures about their oil data as part of the IPO based on their oil reserves. 


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you want to dream up dumb ideas and then argue with yourself about your own dumb ideas, you are welcome to do so but please don't use a phony quote to try to claim your dumb ideas have anything to do with me.

My comment up thread did not attribute a particular quote to you.... I simply said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is 48 billion barrels of oil left in that zone of high oil saturation. You are living in a world of "oh the Saudis are lying about their reserves, Ghawar is failing....etc, etc." that was endemic on this site a decade ago and you were tossing the same idea out on another thread just a few months ago.

But now we have the actual quotes to confirm my claim. :roll:
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 21:22:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')uly of 2018 your quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he sale has already been postposed several times. [b]The reason its looking like the whole things is going to be cancelled is that Saudi is unwilling to disclose information about the condition of their oil assets and oil reserves


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! Thats very funny.

I can't believe you don't understand the concept of time. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 8) :-D :P :P :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

In July of 2018 the Saudi's hadn't released information on their oil assets and reserves. They'd kept this kind of info under wraps for decades.

Now its 2019, the year after 2018, and after decades of secrecy they finally released information on their oil assets and reserves as part of their bond prospectus. Are you really so ignorant that you don't even understand that? In 2018 the Saudis hadn't released the data and now in 2019 they have.

Do you get it now?

Do I have to explain the concept of time and how the calendar works to you now? Are you really that thick?

SHEEESH! :-D :-D :-D :-D :) :) :) :) :P :P :P :P :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 23:15:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') can't believe you don't understand the concept of time. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 8) :-D :P :P :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

In July of 2018 the Saudi's hadn't released information on their oil assets and reserves. They'd kept this kind of info under wraps for decades.


Nice try with revisionist history. This is what I said above:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou are living in a world of "oh the Saudis are lying about their reserves, Ghawar is failing....etc, etc." that was endemic on this site a decade ago and you were tossing the same idea out on another thread just a few months ago. 


So you are telling us mid-2018 isn't a few months ago?...less than a year, few months pretty much the same.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow its 2019, the year after 2018, and after decades of secrecy they finally released information on their oil assets and reserves as part of their bond prospectus. Are you really so ignorant that you don't even understand that? In 2018 the Saudis hadn't released the data and now in 2019 they have.


Yes but I wasn't the one who bought into the conspiracy theory you were supporting. I was pointing out the whole time that they weren't lying (which I've been saying for over a decade here). The reserves had already been audited back then and reported in the news (as I pointed out in that thread) and you still claimed they were making it all up. If you had any brains or could read you would have realized this back then.

First you tell us that you never said any of that....but apparently, there is proof you did. Then you tell us that essentially you were right because they hadn't released the data, which could be the dumbest thing I've heard here yet.
And now you are back at it again. Taking information from the prospectus (which clearly you never read) out of context to support your view that Ghawar is somehow dying and Saudi Arabia is in trouble (based on your ludicrous understanding of reservoir engineering principles), even though they still have more reserves in just Ghawar than many countries in the world (it's actually the same now as all of Libya as an example).

So keep up with trying to rewrite history. If you think folks here can't see through it then I'm afraid you are sadly mistaken.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 14:50:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou are living in a world of "oh the Saudis are lying about their reserves...."


We've already discussed this dumb idea of yours.

For the second time, I've never claimed the Saudis are lying about their reserves.

For the second time, the post you cited from 2018 doesn't claim the Saudis are lying. I said the Saudi hadn't released the data...which in 2018 they hadn't.

For the second time please note that it wasn't until 2019 that the Saudis released data on their oil holdings as part of their bond prospectus.

There is a concept in science known as GIGO....that means garbage in garbage out. GIGO refers to the fact that if you start with a bad theory or bad data, then the results of the experiment aren't going to be what you hope for. GIGO will introduce fatal flaws. Well....you are suffering from a bad case of GIGO. You are starting from a false premise, so your results don't make any sense. You are taking my post from a year ago, lying about what it says, and then going on to claim that your lie says something about my views now. Sorry....all you've done is engage in a particularly dumb episode of lying.

Do you get it now?

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 15:12:50

The post you cited from 2018 doesn't claim the Saudis are lying. I said the Saudi hadn't released the data...which in 2018 they hadn't.

Yeah right.....
your quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd whats more, forget about the IPO they've been preparing too. They're not going to do that either. They don't want anybody else to see the books or check those claims about oil reserves, don't you know, because their claims might be specious and they might get sued for lying about their oil reserves.

Saudi lying about their oil reserves? Why, perish the thought!


Not only that but you defended your view they weren't telling the truth when several other posters called you out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o I have to explain the concept of time to you as well? Do I have to explain that 2018 was last year, and this year is 2019? Do you understand that 2019 comes after 2018?


OK, making the same claim over and over again doesn't make it more correct. I said ....once again..."you were tossing the same idea out on another thread just a few months ago" which is correct. Notwithstanding the fact that I had pointed out to you back in mid-2018 that the reserve audit had already been completed and that it was reported the results were in line with those already indicated by Aramco. Back in 2017 the very fact Aramco had hired both GCA and D&M to conduct reserve audits (which both companies would be legally at risk by not reporting correctly) for the proposed IPO pretty much signaled Aramco had no worries about the reserve levels they had already made public.

But revisionist history seems to be your go-to response whenever you are caught out. Not sure why I would expect anything different this time around. :roll:
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 15:28:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd whats more, forget about the IPO they've been preparing too. They're not going to do that either.


?????

Again, don't you follow the news? Don't you know anything about this topic?

The Saudis didn't do an IPO, just as I predicted. Don't you even understand that? They switched to doing a bond sale instead.

And why? One reason may well be that the level of disclosure for a bond sale is lower then that required for an IPO.

Again, what I posted in 2018 has come to pass.

Lo and verily, I say unto you, thou generation of one viper, thou knowest not the truth when thou readist it. Thou are living in darkness, with dumb ideas in thou head. Verily this is true.

Amen.

I suggest you grow up and face the facts here. There is no IPO, in spite of your repeated claims the Saudis would issue an IPO and the claims of the Saudis over the last four years that they would issue an IPO.

T H E R E I S N O I P O. T H E S A U D I S S W I T C H E D T O A B O N D S A L E I N S T E A D.

Do you get it now?

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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 16:57:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Saudis didn't do an IPO, just as I predicted. Don't you even understand that? They switched to doing a bond sale instead.

And why? One reason may well be that the level of disclosure for a bond sale is lower then that required for an IPO.

Again, what I posted in 2018 has come to pass.


they didn't do a bond sale "instead"....they did the bond sale to help with the acquisition of SABIC. Aramco's CEO already said that they still have a plan for the IPO but it had to wait on the SABIC deal to be done and would need to include new cashflows. You predicted it was canceled...Do I need to find that quote too? It hasn't been canceled....postponed is not the same thing as I have pointed out many, many times.

By the way, why are you putting a whole bunch of ????? following a quote that was yours? Do you not even understand (or possibly not remember) what it is you wrote? :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd why? One reason may well be that the level of disclosure for a bond sale is lower then that required for an IPO.


wherever you got that from doesn't understand what went into the prospectus. What was disclosed including past years financials, reserves etc was precisely what is included in an IPO. There is nothing missing there. The only difference is for ongoing continuous disclosure which they will not have to do (as yet) because the bond was not issued on a US market. When they get around to an IPO they will be subject to continuous disclosure no matter where they decide to list.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') suggest you grow up and face the facts here. There is no IPO, in spite of your repeated claims the Saudis would issue an IPO and the claims of the Saudis over the last four years that they would issue an IPO.


what "facts" would those be? The ones you get from some pundit suggesting he knows what is going on? How about we look at what the CEO of Saudi Aramco said a week ago:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')l-Falih also told Bloomberg that investor demand for Saudi Aramco’s debut dollar bond has exceeded $30bn. The securities, which haven’t priced yet, will be the first of many debt offerings by the company. He added that the company will have a "permanent presence" in capital markets, and in a couple of years investors will be able to buy either company stock or bonds.
He also noted that he hopes Saudi Aramco will proceed with an initial public offering, which has been delayed, in 2021.


Pretty clear from that statement that the Bond was not chased as a means of replacing an IPO. And all the pundits out there who suggest it is a replacement don't seem to understand the difference. A bond has to be redeemed. If Aramco issues a bond for $10 billion dollars that is due in periods up to 10 years out they not only pay interest regularly to bondholders but they must also redeem all the bonds at the end of the period. They are hence in the negative in terms of that transaction, the only reason they would do it is to allow them to use that $10 billion elsewhere early on, time value of money being what it is. In the case of an IPO where they sell $10 billion of shares they are on the hook for whatever dividends need to be paid but they do not have to pay back the $10 billion. You do Bonds and sell equity for two completely different reasons, suggesting the two are interchangeable with similar outcomes is far from the truth. The original goal stated by SA for issuing an IPO was to make Aramco a public integrated corporation, larger than Exxon or Shell..a bond sale doesn't get them there.
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Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 17 Apr 2019, 18:11:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only difference is for ongoing continuous disclosure which they will not have to do ...


??????

But you said in your post above there was no difference between the disclosure for a bond and disclosure involved in doing an IPO. And yet now you are admitting there is a difference?

Were you lying or just displaying your usual ignorance when you claimed the level of disclosure was the same for an IPO and a bond?

Anyway, the bottom line is I am right again. As I've explained to you multiple times now, the level of disclosure required for a bond is not as great as that required for the completion of an IPO.

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Is there anything else I can help explain to you?

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Ask your question, human.

I know---have you figured out what year it is yet? (HINT---this is the year after 2018!).

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