[Newfie]

Revi,

Good article, thanks.

[Revi]

I thought it was a pretty good one by Gail. It's shorter than a lot of her posts, but much doomier. I think it's very possible that we'll have an economic downturn very soon.

[Newfie]

Yeah, who knows. I’ve stopped following a lot of threads here because, despite their best efforts, no one really seems to be able to predict much of anything in the relative short span.

We could go another year, or 5, or 50, or Thursday. IMHO it’s all too complex to make any meaningful predictions. Christ, who would have predicted the last Presidential election with those two clowns? And that is much simpler.

I think it’s abundently clear we will experience a strong period of degrowth/crash/collapse with 50-100 years. It that’s not realy very useful today.

[marmico]

Puhleeze. Another Tverberg annual projection. She has only been wrong for 9 consecutive years. Maybe she gets lucky in year 10. Don't confuse skill with luck.

The second sentence is classic:

The issue, as I see it, is that the world economy is gradually changing from a growth mode to a mode of shrinkage.

Does that mean that the world economy is moving from expansion to contraction?

My guess is that she will be wrong for 10 consecutive years. Start showing the 2019 shrinkages, Tverberg. No need to go country by country. Just 2 projections - the growth rates for the Advanced Economies and the Emerging Market and Developing Economies will be fine.

[Revi]

I read the book, and it's interesting to be studied like an anthropological study. I wonder if we are like a lost tribe. There aren't many real Peakists left!

[marmico]

What 1972 book did you read Revi? Club of Rome Limits to Growth or Alvin Toffler's Future Shock. I don't think you could read in 1972, Revi.

I'm only commenting because you brought up Tverberg - in her world every corner is doomerville and every bed has a monster underneath.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'W')hat 1972 book did you read Revi? Club of Rome Limits to Growth or Alvin Toffler's Future Shock. I don't think you could read in 1972, Revi.

I'm only commenting because you brought up Tverberg - in her world every corner is doomerville and every bed has a monster underneath.