[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')I agree, that it seems like we are crying wolf too many times, but this time it's real!

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')t's only because the peak oil party has ended and everyone has gone home that those who are still nursing their drinks and talking about it have erected such implausible rationalizations to make it seem like what's happening is still consistent with peak oil doom. The rationalizations have now had to completely invert themselves. Any passer-by who read this sort of thing would be rolling on the floor laughing to think that peakers are now putting forth the idea that the lower oil prices go the more it's a validation of peak-oil doom. Only within the echo-chamber can these rationalizations self-reinforce to the point where anyone can really buy into them.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')y the way ennui, when I said that $20 oil is a death spiral? Yeah. With the exception of a few primary-driven legacy fields (in Iran, Iraq, Texas, Oklahoma, Kern Co etc.) the average cost of production for the rest and new fields is now above $40. So if oil ever reaches $20, it must have passed on its way down through $30 and $25. Right? Which would have been long enough for consumer demand to drive new production back up? And prices back up. But it didn't because of that brand-new phenomena demand destruction which is unique to Peak-Oil.

Demand destruction is when oil-markets are destroyed by infrastructure destruction, social or economic collapse . . . when prolonged oil high prices eat into the ability of a society to function or continue in lieu of a suitable energy replacement (which apparently doesn't exist)

To a limited degree this happened all over the world as $40, $100, then $147 oil caused folks to adapt their life-styles. Many (like those in Egypt) chose to buy bread rather than drive to work. Others from Saharan Africa and the ME have decided to give up not only their cars, but their homes and communities to migrate somewhere else. Lo! The oil won't be any cheap there.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere's the peak in all oil:

http://peakoilbarrel.com

It may come back up, but it looks like all over the world we have hit a peak and are dropping.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Unlike you guys I built my doomstead

[Revi]

I agree it sounds like Chicken Little when I say that the end is nigh. I agree. I am not as concerned as I once was, maybe because I'm older. Here is a drop for October in Opec oil, and we know that the US is down, and that leaves the rest of the world, which is dropping a little as well.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-crude-pro ... n-october/

[Revi]

I talked to a student yesterday and suggested that she do a study of the Climate Change movement. It is a little newer than Peak Oil and a lot bigger. I wonder if they will come to the same conclusion as we have. The groups like 350 have actually accomplished something lately, so they will be feeling a lot better about what they are doing. As far as I know almost nobody ever even knew about peak oil, and the only one who mentioned it was Hirsch, so it was almost unknown outside of our circle. Everybody has an opinion about climate change. Not so much for peak oil.

[Revi]

I am going to try to bump this thread alive again. We are all waiting on the world to change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBIxScJ5rlY

[Revi]

Peak oil seems to be happening, despite this book. We are depicted as crazy dormers, but in a couple of years we'll seem like prophets! I hope...

[ennui2]

And then they'll hit up google earth and say: "Hey look, there's some oasis of fruit trees inside a bunch of redwoods! Let's go charge the place!"

[ennui2]

I don't plan on getting that desperate...

[Newfie]

I just read this thread through. First time I've looked at it.

I don't think peal oil awareness is a political statement. Nor do I think it's a Doomer bias. I think what you have here are some people who kinda "get" the Limits To Growth argument and we are following and discussing the various plotted trend lines. The title is Peak Oil but it could as easily be Limits To Growth, or Resource Deplection, or Earthwise Systems Analysis.

A fair number of my acquantinences get the whole mess Earth and Humanity is in, but I tend to hang with a particular crowd. Generalist engineers and a few others. It is equally true that many who yu would think should get it don't.

If one were to generalize about us I would say, on average, we have a larger, more detached world view. We tend to be generalist. Folks vpcan be very smart but only experienced in a limited arena. They operate by trusting that others are equally competent in their fields. Perhaps another trai we share is some distrust in our fellow humans to do the right thing, so we check in on them and....oooopaies, they are mucking up big time. Perhaps that's where the Libetarian descriptor comes from.

I find similar traits and sensitivities in the crusing community, those who are actually living aboard and traveling. Perhaps they are similar personality types, for the cruisers need to be fairly smart and energetic generalist. They also have a greater than normal connection to Nature.

[Newfie]

As to the price of oil I have a bit of a weird take. I believe that $150 and $20 oil are equally disruptive to the global financial/trade system. Neither on is good for the system. The system wants a nice stable price, slowly inflating, that it can trust and plan on. Deviations, plus or minus, are disruptive.

It's all about balance and small, incremental changes. Big changes play havoc. I think we will see efforts, not sure what, perhaps a ME war, that will try to stabilize the price around "normal."

What I don't get (among many things) is why the US seems so hell bent on disrupting the status quo with regards to to oil. Generally I don't ascribe motives and cohesive actions to some uber TPTB, and I suspect that is the case here. It's not that TPTB are directing this fiasco, it has happened through circumstance and now whatever TPTB can't seem (yet again) to get their stuff together to restore normality. I almost wish there were some TPTB, then we would have some chance of control as opposed to the meat robot approach we seem to be taking.

[Revi]

I think they are trying to control this thing, but it's getting out of control. I have a couple of friends in the antique business and they put everything on sale for 25% off, then 50%, then they went out of business. I think we are in a similar situation right now. Things are cheap now, because they are being sold off prior to disappearing.