[Seeker]

I'm posting this in the Peak Oil discussion forum because this is a message for those who continue to discuss these issues. For the purposes of this thread, we will accept the following premises. For those who do not accept these, please continue your discussion elsewhere.

-- Peak Oil is real, and is happening in the near future.
-- The actual Peak isn't as harmful as how people are going to react to it. I envision an oil hoarding and grabbing (demand spike) scenario, leading to a price spike. Should a recession or perhaps rationing bring down demand on a national level, we are still going to see the same scenario playing out on an international level. Countries are already engaged in positioning for resource wars, this is plain to see.
-- There will not be time to research and develop and implement and scale alternative sources of energy, fertilizer, production, or manufacturing other than oil, oil-derived energies, oil-built machinery, and oil-consuming machines.
-- Even if the above were false, and we do have time to implement these, it would be a major hardship on our economy and our way of life. The petrodollar would likely still collapse. Our oil-centered economy would need a complete overhaul, the stress of which it would most likely not be able to handle.
-- Even if everything worked out "perfectly", and our economy was able to continue expanding, Peak Oil is merely one of the limits to growth. Complexity, water and other natural resources, the limits of our biosphere (and 15 out of 24 ecosystems are in danger of collapse already), Global Warming, a whole barrage of possible pandemics, and many others are all problems lined up to follow Peak Oil. Thus, the maintenance of the status quo will lead us to even more difficult problems in the future.

It has become clear to me, after several months of reading and analysis, that there needs to be a MAJOR transition happening here. Something needs to be done, and I don't think it includes trying to save our current systems. This comes after a determined examination of the immense, overwhelming, and unprecedented problems civilization is facing.

Somewhat immediately after I became aware of Peak Oil and some of the other imminent crises, I began to think about what would likely be the best coruse of action. I've attempted to engage many people in this discussion, but one thing I have found is that no one is prepared or aware enough to discuss these things. Some of the "elders" on this forum have no doubt experienced this.

Therefore, one of the FIRST conclusions I have come to is this: we should not be talking about this anymore. At this point, it is at best a distraction from the real work we need to be doing, and at worst fanning the flames of the upcoming crisis.

My reasoning for this is as follows:
1. The majority of people are not willing or able to understand the concepts or ramifications of Peak Oil.
2. When enough investors find out about the problems of the upcoming supply shortfall, the demand spike and subsequent price spike will occur. This could occur at any time. As this will be absolutely devastating to our economy and other systems and preclude all efforts at a transition to alternatives, we should avoid this at all costs. As Aaron says, "Be aware of Peak Oil. Be afraid of how people will react to it."
3. While we are (endlessly) discussing this problem, our systems and their inertia are continuing to grow. Discussion here has passed the point of diminishing returns, arguments are being hashed out over and over again. Waiting to see what happens is not doing ANYthing at all. At this point in the discussion, there is little else to do BUT wait and see. In the meantime, there is little more to be said on these issues, little else that is practical to do other than to begin work on alternatives.

Efforts to make people aware are becoming more and more counterproductive. The Powers That Be are already aware of these issues, and do not need to be further educated on such matters. The general public is either hopelessly ignorant or comfortably addicted to their way of life. We do them and ourselves a disservice by continuing to discuss these issues while being inactive in building another alternative.

The best way to educate is to set an example. Einstein would say that this is the ONLY way. Gandhi spoke of "[being] the change we wish to see in the world." The longer we go without the construction of an alternative, a Plan B, or a safety net, the longer we perpetuate and contribute to the status quo.

Here is an analogy: We have a series of ticking timebombs in a heavily crowded room, one without a door. When the first timebomb stops, the next one activates. People are very distracted with this really great movie. Do we try to wake up everyone around us by urgently screaming at them that there are bombs in the room? Or do we quietly focus on moving to the walls, and constructing a door? If we use the first strategy, what if we succeed in getting everyone to believe that there is a bomb? Do you really think they are prepared to handle that information in an orderly manner? In the ensuing panic, we see the following two things happening: the likelihood of setting off the bomb increasing, and direct interference with the construction of a door.

The problem with this analogy is that in our scenario, panic IS the bomb. The last thing we need is a panicky grab for oil, subsequently creating a "survival" every-man-woman-and-child-for-themselves mode and a truly devastating price spike. For the first time, TPTB might actually be doing something intelligent, and keeping this issue as hush-hush as possible. They're doing it for selfish reasons, of course, and are doing nothing to contribute toward the construction of alternatives... but they're at least doing SOMEthing right.

My suggestion: everyone move as quickly and quietly as they can, being careful not to set off a panic, and begin the construction of that door. We have no safety net, we have no plan B, and that bomb is ticking. Other bombs follow it, even bigger ones. The Powers That Be aren't going to do anything other than what they have historically done -- use it for their own benefit. A technical fix doesn't get us out of the room, it just disables the bomb... and the next one is coming, and will be even harder to disable. How do we get out of the room?

Remember: quickly, and quietly. That way, we might have a way out of this.

Peace,
Devin

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seeker', ' ')My suggestion: everyone move as quickly and quietly as they can, being careful not to set off a panic, and begin the construction of that door.

[PlanComplete]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m posting this in the Peak Oil discussion forum because this is a message for those who continue to discuss these issues. For the purposes of this thread, we will accept the following premises. For those who do not accept these, please continue your discussion elsewhere.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

I agree with you presmises.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')herefore, one of the FIRST conclusions I have come to is this: we should not be talking about this anymore. At this point, it is at best a distraction from the real work we need to be doing, and at worst fanning the flames of the upcoming crisis

[Seeker]

For the purposes of clarification:

Tell your family, your friends, those who you think will respond positively and proactively. Let them know that there is a real danger in this situation, and that there needs to be a constructive alternative built. That we have to get out of the room.

However, don't let the discussion of these issues get in your way. If they do not respond, move on. Other people will be more open to what you have to say, and the more people you network with, the more credibility you have.

Maintain a low profile at all times. It would be absolutely insane for President Bush to come out and say "By the way, everyone, we have an imminent oil crisis." I normally advocate full disclosure of information, but the public has been babied and kept ignorant (acculturated blindness) for so long, I do not believe for one second that they will be able to handle this truth in any kind of reasonable manner. The ones that will respond to Peak Oil, will be the ones that also will respond to those who are keeping a low profile.

Luckily, so far nearly everyone has been able to dismiss the upcoming oil crisis as the scheme of crackpots. If these people were really aware of what Peak Oil meant to their way of life, there would likely be a frenzied panic. Again, something we need to stay away from at all costs.

The most important thing we need right now is time. At the moment, we still have some sort of financial security, we still have some sort of ability to construct an alternative. If the shit hits the fan, we're seeing everything fall apart. We do not want this, at all. It does not matter if you are a "doomer" or if you are an "optimist", there is still a high probability of a price shock. This undermines the optimist's efforts at perpetuation, and the doomer's efforts at preparation.

At the very least, we need to be working together to build a compromise, something we can all work on. "Just in case" doesn't cut it anymore -- in my mind, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when. How much can we have built by the time we need something to fall back on?

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I') agree with you presmises.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')herefore, one of the FIRST conclusions I have come to is this: we should not be talking about this anymore. At this point, it is at best a distraction from the real work we need to be doing, and at worst fanning the flames of the upcoming crisis

[Seeker]

PlanComplete: My point is that the discussion of the premises is counter-productive for those who accept them. For those who do not accept them, please feel free to continue to debate them. I'm merely encouraging a transition to building an alternative rather than spending so much time on discussion.

I'm also attempting to highlight that the biggest problem with Peak Oil is the panic it will create. Regardless of if there are alternatives or not is the question of what the public thinks. If the public foresees a problem without an as-yet built solution, how do they respond?

UnknownElement: Thanks for your contribution. I recognize that it is only human to want to discuss these issues, and that there is a need for sanity and for confirmation. But if you are able to get these things without everyone agreeing on every last premise of every last discussion (of which there are thousands here) it is a bonus. As you can see in my clarification (that I started typing when no one had responded) I realize that there is a need for these ideas to be communicated. I've talked to my parents about these, and my friends as well. But it's becoming clearer to me that having other people aware of these things isn't near so valuable as having a safety net -- and that we should spend (perhaps a large majority of) our time doing such things in addition to creating awareness.

[Seeker]

Tyler_JC: I think that's a piece of what I'm saying. Forgive me if I'm not very clear in this thread, I broke one of my own rules in writing something before I'd thought through everything to a decent extent.

I think this thread comes directly from the discussion on the thread The Powerdown Solution: Building a Consensus. I think trying to come up with a real solution to these issues was something good for us to do, because what I'm sensing from that thread is that there really aren't a number of good options for the future. While I was attempting to express that urgency to my parents, I realized that if this urgency were to spread to those who were not capable of doing anything about it, and without an adequate solution already being worked on, then there might be an unmitigated disaster.

The only thing keeping the dollar and the economy afloat is confidence. We've got to keep that confidence, while simultaneously transitioning to an alternative and also spreading the word. This, I feel, would best be done in a quiet manner, rather than someone driving down the street with a loudspeaker yelling "WE ARE ALL DOOMED! LEARN ABOUT PEAK OIL TODAY!" in a very sensationalist manner.

I think that's what I'm getting at. Sorry for the confusion.

Peace,
Devin

[Raxozanne]

Its called the planning for the future forum.

[Seeker]

Yes, it is.

Who knows, maybe this thread was unwarranted. But I see a need for people to actually begin working on a way out, rather than arguing if there is a bomb or not.

[PlanComplete]

All valid points in your above posts, but I do think the government through the media is preparing to tell everyone with-in a year with just a drop by drop of subtle hints in major news carriers every once in a while. But I do not think panic is going to cause the worst parts I think apathy is going to cause the worst of the problems. And with apathy we will thin the ranks.
Example below



MSNBC Link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut none of that investment in other oil companies is increasing the world’s supply of oil. And without new discoveries, the price of oil will likely continue to rise.

"Basically, it's musical chairs, and every time you have fewer and fewer companies,” said Gheit. “The people who are slicing pie among themselves -- the number is shrinking, but the pie itself is not growing. The pie is shrinking."

[RonMN]

I agree that PO awareness can bring the collapse more suddenly as well as a "shoot the messenger" type reaction when TSHTF.

But as far as making a plan B...may i invite you to check out the "Planning for the Future" area of threads...lots of great info in there! One of the best preparations for this emergency will be to learn.

[Raxozanne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seeker', 'Y')es, it is.

Who knows, maybe this thread was unwarranted. But I see a need for people to actually begin working on a way out, rather than arguing if there is a bomb or not.

[Seeker]

PlanComplete: No, I don't think apathy will last long when the crash starts to happen. But general apathy/ignorance pre-crash would be a good thing, enabling the construction of alternatives and not setting off a crash too early.

That's what I'm seeing: a crash before we even hit Peak Oil, because of a price spike. Hell, if people thought long term enough and were aware of this 10 years ago, there could have been an ugly price spike back then as well.

A good example is the oil shock of the 1970s. If something like that happens now, we really ARE doomed.

[Seeker]

RonMN: Thanks for pointing it out, but I'm well aware of it. I've been browsing that forum the longest out of any of them, actually. But I'm not sure people see the necessity of the alternative-building, yet. People here often seem to get caught up in possibilities: "well, there is this or that possibility for change, therefore a crash isn't going to happen." While this kind of reasoning is good for a laugh, I think a good "POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT REALITY" thread couldn't hurt.

I'm not sure people recognize the difficulty of transitioning to another system. And in that same vein, the last thing we need is a panic, exacerbating the efforts to do so. Hence this thread.

[honeylocust]

"Any incremental gain made by activist-martyrs throwing themselves in front of bulldozers only displaces the problem slightly into the future and makes the ultimate crash even worse. Logic dictates that one should either change the fundamental nature of the system or simply take names and wait."

http://www.dieoff.org/page166.htm

[kelee877]

confrimation that peak oil is real..I am not a great writter like some of you..at times health is not the best, but manage..thank you for this post..I take baby steps into peak oil and then some days i feel i have to jump the whole river at once..it is those older poster that have the most valuable information that are making those of us that have also to learn..feel alot better..

[Pops]

But Seeker, you are ignoring your own advice – you’re still typing!

Actually the the whole Planning for the Future forum is based around the idea PO is going to do something. I wrote a year ago - right there in the Read Me “this forum is for those who are through debating PO.”

Heck, maybe I got this whole ‘take your arguments elsewhere’ bit started myself and it’s just taken a year for it to catch on – who knew?

Seriously, I think this board is THE place for folks just starting to think about these things. Arguments and discussions are one way people learn, and also a great way to bounce around solutions and ideas – micro and macro. I’ve had great (I thought) ideas torn to shreds, but better here than in the real world.

Look at it like your community service to the world when you add a suggestion or even point out a flaw in someone’s thinking. If one is here to gab, chit-chat, socialize - that’s fine, no skin off my nose, and if others want to create solutions to world problems – great I hope someone with the power to implement them reads and believes.

But to me making this place a reasource is most important. If you want to save the world people have to find us - the reason Google likes us is the links folks post here and how many other sites post our link .

Hope I’m not disagreeing!


{Edit I missed my point!}

[bruss01]

With a caveat that one should tip one's close friends and dear relatives, I agree that in general it is a good idea to keep a low profile on the subject of peak oil.

I discuss the PO subject here because people here are already aware, and most have a reasonably realistic picture of what the future holds. Not too many are going to extremes, not too many with their heads in the sand.

I have mentioned the topic to some of my family and to several of my closest friends in a "word to the wise" sort of way. I will be happy to lead the horse to water, but I'm not going to waste time and effort sticking around to make sure they drink. Maybe there will be time for that after all of my other preparations have been made. I mention a few books on the subject, perhaps make a casual comment now and then. But they won't get a sales pitch from me.

I'm concerned, like seeker, that too much awareness too soon by the public would be more likely to precipitate a crash, rather than to generate solutions to the PO problem. If they want to think we're a bunch of whackos living out our little end-of-the-world fantasy, let them. Those of us who are busy preparing, have bigger fish to fry than defending our image. The last thing we need is a panic breaking out prematurely, before we have got most of our preparations completed. He who yells "fire!" in a crowded theatre may find he has difficulty getting out himself.

Revealing Peak Oil to people who are disinclined or unprepared to be responsible for themselves and their dependents will only generate a frantic fear that will manifest in unpredictable ways. It may even precipitate swift and autocratic actions on the part of the government to head off a widespread panic. Martial law, anti-hoarding decrees and a ban on firearms ownership would be very inconvenient to those of us who are trying to make sure we can survive the coming crisis by preparing now.

Having said that, I also agree that we need a forum here to keep each other grounded with the occasional "reality check". This site is a great clearinghouse for PO info, which we will need continuously as things progress. And I appreciate hearing how others are preparing - how their situation and needs are different, and the occasional "d'oh! I never thought of that!" when someone mentions something patently obvious that many of us have overlooked.

So IMHO - Proseltyzing, No - Networking with other PO-aware people, Yes.

[RonMN]

Let's take a look at that "safety net" or "door" as you put it.

Shelter should be something like a basement with a roof on it or something underground (temperature control).

Water can be gathered, hauled by hand, filtered thru sand & boiled to make it drinkable. Or distilled.

Fire...we should all have lighters, matches, magnifying glass, and it probably wouldnt be a bad idea to learn the old rubbing 2 sticks together method.

Food...we'll need to learn to grow, hunt, gather, & recognise food as well as food preservation.

There...we have our 4 real NEEDS covered. What i don't understand is if you are talking about this safety net for you & yours...or the entire population. (?)

Also, i've talked with many many people who say they would rather die than live "like that" (off the land)...now i know when TSHTF they wont really want to die...but i can promise you they wont want to work either. They'll just want to sit on their asses & watch me to all the life sustaining work for them. For an infant or elderly i can handle that...for an able bodied average person...they will find themselves out in the cold before they know what hit 'em.