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PeakOil is You

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General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Postby Ludi » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 07:37:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', ' ')There seems to be a myopic opinion on this forum that there is only ONE way to survive PO and that is to become an independent farmer.


Sorry, I have to disagree with you again, very strongly. Most people on this board don't plan to become independent farmers. You can take a survey, but I would bet you most people plan to stay in the city because that's where they already live. Or they live in the suburbs but they plan to move closer in to the city. At least that's the impression I've gotten. Many people are proposing many different solutions. Some of us happen to agree on some of those solutions. This particular thread is about stopping talking about the problem and actually going and living our particular vision of a solution.

I know when a couple people are disagreeing with some things you say, it feels like everyone is disagreeing with everything you say, but that isn't true. Many people here at PO.com agree with your point of view.
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Postby Novus » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 11:31:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ghog', '
')
People who are preparing and planning are already being affected by PO awareness, hence the reason for their being here and planning lifestyle changes. So to say those people have not come to grips with and are not affected by PO is also incorrect.


Do not assume I am not preparing as well. I have taken many steps and made many changes to my lifestyle to prepare for PO. They just don't involve moving to the countryside and becoming a "biointensive" farmer.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Anyone in the majority doesn't need to preach to the choir. They already know the responses they will get.


They don't need to but most do it anyway. They need their own ideas parroted back to them from other people to reassure them they are still in the majority opinion.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')We can disagree on vision, but you obviously don't understand the difference between organic farming and Biointensive techniques. They are not one in the same. GET IT NOW?


Yes, I get it. You made up a word. Biointensive does not equal the compound of its' two roots: Biological and Intense. It represents a specific set of low scale farming techniques as euphemism for what is really abject poverty. I get it and I don't care.

I can make up a word too you know. Maybe I should start calling the specific techiques associated with large scale organic farming of whole foods Bioefficient farming. Bioefficient does not equal the compound of its' two roots Biological and Efficient. It is a euphemism for the mulit-billion dollar industry that feeds the cities.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow where the difference comes in. Even organic farming, WITHOUT following biointensive techniques, depletes the soil faster that nature can replenish it. Hence why we need outside 'help' to replenish the soil. If the "multi-billion dollar industry" was using these techniques, our soil wouldn't be depleting. Biointensive techniques work to maintain the fertility of the soil without any oil-based fertilizers.


Organic farming with Bioefficient methods can also reduce soil depletion by using fallow field regeneration. Bioefficient farms located on the flood plains can also allow flood waters to replenish the soil every winter. That is how Egypt feeds 60 million people in the middle of the world's largest desert and still has food to export.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eems with offering a minority opinion, you would be prepared for a heated debate. Instead you speak of being attacked. People are only disagreeing with your opinions. If you can't handle that, don't debate.


No, I beleive Ludi called me incredibly igonorant because I was ignoring his euphemism.
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Postby Ghog » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 12:24:36

Novus, shall we try a new day?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o not assume I am not preparing as well


I didn't. Next.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, I get it. You made up a word. Biointensive does not equal the compound of its' two roots: Biological and Intense. It represents a specific set of low scale farming techniques as euphemism for what is really abject poverty. I get it and I don't care.


No, you don't. Alan Chadwick 'made up' this term. How arrogant of you to make a baseless claim, just because you disagree with the principle. You DON'T get it and I no longer care.

I guess we are done here. It's ok, as we each have our own ideas about how to deal with everything life throws at us. In the future though, don't take it so personal. Not everyone will agree with you. To assist you in your PO preparation, might I suggest a suit of armor. It may help defend against all the 'attacks' you seem not to be able to handle.

Good luck in the future and in your preparations.
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Postby spudbuddy » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 13:36:52

"1. The majority of people are not willing or able to understand the concepts or ramifications of Peak Oil. "


I disagree entirely with this statement. This is to make the the assumption that the "dumbing down" of America has been successful.
The total percentage of Americans earning college degrees is constantly climbing.
Which means a greater percentage of the population is capable of reading at an adequate level to research this topic. Which is what many will do while they engage in discussion, before they engage in same, and certainly after.
The media would have us believe that the average IQ out there is pretty low.
By comparison, the average level of awareness of political, social and economic realities in the 21st century, compared to even pre-boomer days, is astonishing.
We are more prepared for this, as a society, than we have ever been.
If one looks at what is happening on a grassroots level (and this is where the groundwork is being laid) one can never assume that we're a nation of ostriches hiding our heads in the sand.
On the surface, everything looks pretty much the same...business as usual. Just beneath that surface is another story, entirely.

A friend of mine pointed out to me just last night...this medium is perhaps crucial to the issue, because it is the only public media not directly controlled by big business and government.
Here is where we do exercise our right to free speech, in a public manner.
It is important to understand the process:
When one sets about gathering information, and begins to see a bigger picture, they must test their understanding of what it is they think they're learning.
We do that in the real world, in real time, in the same old social ways and while conducting the same old habits we have always employed.
(around the water cooler at work, at a backyard barbeque, at the lunch counter, with coffee at the kitchen table, etc.)
But not only this...
We have this grand old tradition of putting things in print. Which is what we do here.
It is a free press, after all.
People are talking. There is an ever-growing chorus, a rising tide of thunderous sound, a huge swell of babbling yak. America talks. Not only with and among themselves, but with the rest of the world.
A wonderful thing.
And with an ear to the ground, when one discovers that the topical nature of discussion is slowly turning away from what doesn't matter (juicy gossip, reality tv, pop sensibility, the mundane, arcane, shallow, artificial and otherwise cheap and inconsequential nattering) well, here you have it.

I'm sure apocalyptic visions abound out there. They always have.
Silence is deadly. Silence gives consent.
When millions of people make up their minds they damned well do not want to give consent to the way we've been waltzing down the garden path, then things begin to change.
Things begin to change because people start to notice one another, and recognize the actualization of a public will.
The public will is the force that effects that change.
The public will is a force that is gathered, harvested, reaped, focused, channeled into the process that does the work for the good of us all.

Perhaps it starts with a question: "How many other people feel the way I do? Am I all alone here? Am I on track? Or am I way out in left field?"
Perhaps I need to test this by bouncing it off others."

I have read marvellous moments of levity in here...."when I first accepted peak oil....ha!...sounds like a born again testimony".....etc.

Social discourse is the lubricant that helps set the squeeky wheels in motion. Lord knows
, they're going to have to do a lot of turning in the next few decades. There is a lot of work to do.
We will never do that work in silence. We're not built that way.
Neither do we have to tip-toe around like scared mice, hoping that higher powers aren't going to notice, or that we don't step on toes, or upset anyone.
Of course higher powers are going to notice! (read: big busines, big government). Of course we're going to step on toes! That's part of the process of consensus. And I'm sure we'll upset a lot of people. Democratic principles call for it, demand it, even.

Myself...I don't particularly see only apocalyptic visions (as disturbing as they are) but instead, an amazing opportunity for this society, and indeed the entire planet...to make changes intrinsic to our survival.
Peak oil will force the issue, no doubt.
Change is always a constant. The world has changed considerably since the end of WW2. Change is necessary now. It's up to us to effect those changes. We are still very much in a formative stage. We need dialogue. Lots of it.
And here's where it starts. Bubbling up from the heartland, and every corner of the nation, every corner of the planet, in fact.
We are not powerless. We are not lemmings. We are not entirely free...but I suggest we are free enough to move a mountain, one pebble at a time. When enough of us pitch in, well...(hand me a shovel, someone.)
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Postby Ghog » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 14:11:58

Nice read. I don't agree with all of it, but it was well thought out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he total percentage of Americans earning college degrees is constantly climbing.


Students still graduate high school with subpar Math and Science skills. The earning of a college degree doesn't hold the same weight it used to. More people have them, but fewer really understand what they have learned. For example, my CPA/CFO brother-in-law speaks often about new hires with degrees still not understanding basic Accounting priciples. Both of my parents are in the medical field, and they will tell you, what is coming out of school is frightening. Now don't get them wrong, there are still alot of very good med students graduating every day. It is just there are alot more bad ones than there used to be. A Bachelor degree is more about showing a perspective employer your basic knowledge and a commitment, than it is about intelligence. I just feel you are giving our society a little too much credit. After all, we have among the lowest Math and Science scores of industrialized nations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y comparison, the average level of awareness of political, social and economic realities in the 21st century, compared to even pre-boomer days, is astonishing.


Mass media and the WWW.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')1. The majority of people are not willing or able to understand the concepts or ramifications of Peak Oil.


I only disagree with the bold part of this. I DO believe the majority are not willing to 'hear' about PO. Just listen to those tell stories about sharing PO with others. Most are looked at as crazy, doomers. I've gotten very little positive feedback myself and that was mostly sharing with family.

I am under the belief that society will either adapt to the changes or we will erupt into utter chaos and destroy ourselves. I am not yet sure which I am leaning towards.
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Postby Pops » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 14:22:23

Spud, in your few posts that I’ve read, I think you have said more than many of us here say in hundreds - me at the top of the list. I may not always agree with what you say but hats off to the way you say it.

:)
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Postby Drakn » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 14:45:29

Ghog wrote quite a bit without actually stating numerically why my proposed solution would not work.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is the only relationship you see to oil? Do you realize how many products are dependent on it? There goes WalMart, Dell, pharmaceuticals, etc.


If you can read english, I said it was a 'large portion.' That inherently recommends that it is not the entire portion. Which means I do not believe that is the only relationship to oil. IF you can read english. [If you are new to the english language don't take offence.] The strategy here was to identify main problems that would have to change.

Now, if you want my OPINION many people who get medicine processed from oil and oil derivatives, will either have to suck it up and take the blow without it, OR we may be able to produce similar products using coal. Gasoline for example can be created from coal, it was popular in Germany during WWII.

I think Ghog does not realise that the mainstream peak theory is that oil production will follow a normal curve. It will not suddenly disappear overnight. Which is to say, the rate at which Ghog expects oil production to be lowered is astronomically faster than one would reasonably expect. It is only going to be some 3-5% per year at worst. These effects will be drastic, granted, but just as the vital organs in the body get the blood in duress, so will the vital systems of society will get the oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')orums are for debating are they not?


They can be. That is not to say they are the only thing forums are for. They can also be for discussion.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')asy as that? What about the economic effect? The airline and auto industry, trucking and transport?


I didn't say it was going to be a simple change.
As for the Airline industry. I think it will go down entirely. Shipping internationally will be done by ships and trains, likely coal based systems.
The Auto industry is likely going to dip in the very least. It will be replaced by bikes, walking, possibly even horses. It may eventually be replaced by electric cars, but these would strain the electrical system [like I said] and may increase prices. This price increase will lower use of such transportation systems.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak Oil isn't just about not having enough oil. It is about losing cheap oil and the major economic effect it has on the entire economy. Ours is based on cheap fuel and spend, spend, spend. Without it people don't have jobs.

Yes, like I said these effects do have economic significance. There will be a major depression.
Not everyone's job is dependant on oil. Many people's jobs are dependant on oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow much oil to produce these communities?
Now, this is a good point. These communities will cost quite a bit to produce, granted, but I already touched on this by saying 'The solution would also require a massive amount of processing to get the communities set-up.' It was one of the unfavourable sides of the solution, but it may be a sacrifice that must be made. Especially if you have no other solution Ghog.
[I was figuring this morning and it would cost about $5.18 billion and 75.6 million man hours to produce a single community. When you look at the Iraq war though it doesn't look so bad :)]


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Would be nice if we had no infastructure in place, but we do. There is no way it would be cost or energy efficient to create 4300-6400 of these communities.
Now, this is something that perhaps I should look into. How much land do we have that could be used for such communities? I would need to see some hard facts about land usage and availability before I am convinced of this one. Also realise they do not have to be made all at once. Oil will slowly decline, not disappear overnight.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd in what possible way can you believe humans will act the same way they did what 80, 90, 100 years ago? You really believe the selfish masses have one tenth the morals of citizens of the 20's? Not me. Not even close.
I am a historian. I speculate based on what real evidence has already been presented. I try not to tend to opinion as it is usually flawed. Humans are about the same genetically as they were 70 years ago. They may have a weaker [and by that I mean poorer] gene pool because natural selection hasn't really taken place recently, but they will tend to act the same. But it is as I said earlier - if you really want to dispute this point find another point in history where depression led to unrest.
The closest I can find to advocate this point is Germany in the depression. However that case has a strong point against it. The Germans were oppressed by the rest of the world, and were looking for a strong leader to rid them of that opression. There was no mass chaos. There was organised genocide and then war. However, if we come closer to reality during the depression in North America people were just trying to get by. Based on the evidence in history, that is what I am expecting is going to happen.

So back to the original question - does anybody else have a BETTER solution? [If mine is so terribly flawed.]


Yeah, don't worry, I didn't take it personally. You are just an expected result of modern society Ghog.
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Postby Ghog » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 15:45:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah, don't worry, I didn't take it personally. You are just an expected result of modern society Ghog.

If you can read english, I said

IF you can read english. [If you are new to the english language don't take offence.]



Aw, see this is where we end up anymore on this forum when someone disagrees. THIS is why mainstream society won't solve the problems of the world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, if you want my OPINION....


All I gave you was mine, yet you get all bent out of shape about it. Get over yourself already. IT WAS JUST MY DIFFERING OPINION!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think Ghog does not realise that the mainstream peak theory is that oil production will follow a normal curve. It will not suddenly disappear overnight.


My concern was not the lack of any oil, but the economic effects of cheap oil shortages.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hich is to say, the rate at which Ghog expects oil production to be lowered is astronomically faster than one would reasonably expect. It is only going to be some 3-5% per year at worst


I am glad you are able to state this as fact, when even the true experts have varying guesses as to when PO would occur and in what manner. I feel so much better now knowing YOU are reassuring the rest of us. C'mon, most of this is conjecture, based on assumptions and estimations. If we had all of the facts, we would be able to predict the exact date of PO wouldn't we?

Now, can we get past the attitude and discuss more of your plan?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, like I said these effects do have economic significance. There will be a major depression.
Not everyone's job is dependant on oil. Many people's jobs are dependant on oil

I disagree. MOST people's jobs are reliant on CHEAP oil. What do you plan to do about the failed economy, with an also failed infastructure? How do we pay our foreign debts, let alone continue buying oil or funding wars over it? What happens when no country supports the US Dollar or invests in the US economy? I'm just asking you to consider this as part of the big picture.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')I was figuring this morning and it would cost about $5.18 billion and 75.6 million man hours to produce a single community. When you look at the Iraq war though it doesn't look so bad :)]

Using your numbers, 4300 communities would cost us $22,274,000,000,000. I won't even calculate 6400 of them. Where is THIS money coming from in a broken economy with a "major depression"? I am asking you to tell me, not attacking you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am a historian. I speculate based on what real evidence has already been presented. I try not to tend to opinion as it is usually flawed. Humans are about the same genetically as they were 70 years ago.

Not morally though which is what my speculation is based from. No real point to argue though as we would need to wait until the actual event to see the outcome. Let us just disagree. :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on the evidence in history, that is what I am expecting is going to happen.

I have NO PROBLEM with you believing that. That is the optimistic view. I would like to think mine is the realistic one (you would say pessimistic and maybe it is), but society has shown a disinterest in the world around them, so I retain my right to be reserved.

Without me needing to present a BETTER solution than yours, there are plenty of opinions and thoughts on actions we could/should take. Just do a little search on here, as that is the intention of this site. No one solution is ultimately better as we are only speculating on what might happen, how it might happen and when it might happen. We don't need to come up with the final plan TODAY.

I think I may stop posting as I seem to set some people off by challenging any ideas I don't necessarily agree with. Hell my opinion could still be wrong, but the feeling that I shouldn't voice it anymore is getting old. What happened to debate in the interest of being PO prepared?
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Postby Seeker » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 22:03:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')his particular thread is about stopping talking about the problem and actually going and living our particular vision of a solution.


Let's try that again:

This particular thread is about stopping talking about the problem and actually going and living our particular vision of a solution.

[smilie=eusa_wall.gif] ENOUGH!!
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Postby retiredguy » Mon 01 Aug 2005, 12:25:21

To clarify the post I made a couple of days ago. The vast majority 90% of people in this country are far removed from the land. Thinking that one can convert an urban dweller who never has grown anything to a subsistence farmer over a very short period of time is asking a lot.

Farming is a skilled ocupation; it takes education, a degree of intelligence and lots of experience to become proficient.

In general, I agree with Drakn's vision of the post-peak future. A modified feudal system with localized economies, limited trade, and labor diversified over a number of trades, agriculture being one of them. Unless collapse is total, we won't go back to being hunters and gatherers.

My concern is how we transition to this new way of life. Many of today's large urban centers are situated in places where water and arable land are in short supply. When energy gets very expensive, these places won't be sustainable and won't be candidates for transition to the feudal model. Also, there are urban centers located in areas that have adequate water and a good deal of arable land, but not enough to sustain the current level of population.

To my mind the key to a succesful transition how we marshall the remaining fossil fuels to reduce the population to a sustainable level. If we wait too long, there won't be enough time and enough fossil fuels to make the transition relatively peacefully.

We have a chance if the government remains intact and starts doing the right things. Because the government held out hope and because most people believed that the government could help them is the main reason that the Depression didn't devolve into chaos.
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Postby Drakn » Mon 01 Aug 2005, 16:07:22

Ghog, I think there were a few things you misunderstood about my last post.

When I said

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, if you want my OPINION....


I was merely stressing that it was my opinion and nothing to really be convinced of. One should not be convinced just by another's opinion. One should have facts, figures, precedents and so on.

Also, every community would not have to be made at the same time. There only needs to be a slow transition. The earlier it is started the better. Thus 22 trillion dollars is not needed in one year.

As for the other rot you spewed out I am not going to bother entertaining it.

Now Seeker, I am curious. When you wrote;

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his particular thread is about stopping talking about the problem and actually going and living our particular vision of a solution.


What if our particular 'vision' requires massive infrastructure and planning? I cannot very well walk outside my door to such a community. I need to have such a plan revised, critiqued and eventually built. Is there no value to considering whether a solution is viable before trying to do it? I don't think NASA would send off a satelite before crunching the numbers. The right thing to do is design a solution, AND WHEN IT IS READY, make it happen. It just doesn't work the other way around.
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