[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spike', 'I') would recall the NETL report that Robert Hirsch co-authored, to be found here:
https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/o ... g_NETL.pdf
He has a table of predictions of peak. Most are now past.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'P')roduction per capita is more logical.

[Yoshua]

Peak oil took place in November 2016. Since the low net energy from petroleum production won't support high oil prices anymore, the high cost oil will not be produced, which will lead to falling production from here after.

A dramatic fall in oil production might lead to oil price spikes, but they will damage the economy and lead to demand destruction. The falling net energy will force the oil price lower, which in turn will lead to falling production.

The economy won't fall in a straight line though, so we will see times of rising prices followed by oil price falls as the economy reacts to rising prices through stock market corrections and corporate and private defaults.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', 'P')eak oil took place in November 2016. Since the low net energy from petroleum production won't support high oil prices anymore, the high cost oil will not be produced, which will lead to falling production from here after.

A dramatic fall in oil production might lead to oil price spikes, but they will damage the economy and lead to demand destruction. The falling net energy will force the oil price lower, which in turn will lead to falling production.

The economy won't fall in a straight line though, so we will see times of rising prices followed by oil price falls as the economy reacts to rising prices through stock market corrections and corporate and private defaults.

[Yoshua]

As the oil price rose and hit 66 USD, the dollar kept falling. Foreigners holding US treasuries started to sell them. The treasury yields had to rise to compensate the falling dollar value. At a point the treasury yields rose above the S&P dividend yield, which caused a stock market sell off.

The oil price fell to 59 USD, but has been rising since then again. Will we see a new market correction when the oil price hits 66 USD?

Another problem is the tax cut which will lead to a $1T government deficit spending and the issue of treasuries at a time when the Fed has announced that they will not buy treasuries, when China and Japan are simultaneously reducing their US treasury holdings. Who will buy US treasuries?

The "happy days are here again" scenario you hold is from what I have read the other view of what caused the stock market correction.

Nothing wrong with positive thinking though...but I just can't share it.

BP predicts an oil production plateau that will last until 2040? They are basically saying that production has peaked and will remain on a plateau for a couple of decades before the decline. I hope that they are correct.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', 'P')eak oil took place in November 2016.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'P')roduction per capita is more logical.

[Tanada]

Here is the thing, for interesting effects to occur we don't actually have to hit peak, we just have to have demand growth exceed supply growth for a number of years. In the recent decade demand growth has been around 1.5 MM/bbl/d/year or put another way we need to add 125,000/bbl/d every month every year. With the low investment in new exploration/production the last four years due to the glut it seems highly likely that over the next 4 years we are going to run into a 'supply gap' even if Shale LTO continues to progress at rapid pace in the USA and is successfully deployed to Argentina, Mexico, Russia and China. As used to be repeated around here frequently, depletion never sleeps and those legacy wells from conventional fields we used as a foundation in 2013 have depleted somewhat in the last five years reducing the size of the LTO bloom.

Unfortunately estimates of how much legacy depletion has taken place are all over the map. We can calculate good numbers for Prudhoe Bay and the North Sea because those sources file regular governmental production reports as part of their taxes/fees/tariffs. Numbers for most of OPEC and Russia on the other hand are harder to come by and many people say the ones we get are cooked to say what TPTB want them to say. How that is supposed to benefit TPTB is not much discussed so I tend to think they are more likely accurate than they are claimed to be by the nay-sayers.

[Shaved Monkey]

The trick will be to reduce oil demand faster than decline/demand by increasing electric vehicles at a fast enough rate to stop the economic chaos.
It will fun to see how they crank up the electricity generation to cope with the increased demand though.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'T')he trick will be to reduce oil demand faster than decline/demand by increasing electric vehicles at a fast enough rate to stop the economic chaos.
It will fun to see how they crank up the electricity generation to cope with the increased demand though.

[Yoshua]

Adam

I have made up my mind.

Peak conventional onshore 1980
Peak conventional onshore & offshore 2005
Peak conventional & unconventional onshore & offshore 2016

There is nowhere left to go. We are past peak oil. Now it's downhill.

And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'T')he trick will be to reduce oil demand faster than decline/demand by increasing electric vehicles at a fast enough rate to stop the economic chaos.
It will fun to see how they crank up the electricity generation to cope with the increased demand though.

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'T')he trick will be to reduce oil demand faster than decline/demand by increasing electric vehicles at a fast enough rate to stop the economic chaos.
It will fun to see how they crank up the electricity generation to cope with the increased demand though.

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is nowhere left to go. We are past peak oil. Now it's downhill.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')
There is nothing to tax with electric vehicles. "Renewables" is a total fraud...see here:

[vtsnowedin]

Back to the original question. If you look at the EIA weekly products supplied history you can see that we got up to 20M barrels back in 1998 and have been hovering a little above or below that level for a decade. The bumpy plateau as it were. When we see that line drop down to below 19M or 18M barrels a day we will have good evidence that oil (all types) has peaked and times will be very interesting. There are too many unknown variables to say when that might happen so any time from next week to next decade is in play.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... PUPUS2&f=W

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', ' ')
There is nowhere left to go. We are past peak oil. Now it's downhill.

And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
')And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
')And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.

[ROCKMAN]

vt – Here’s where the lack of understanding about even the most basic aspects of the fossil fuel extraction biz leads folks to believe such “facts”. First, lets look at the efficiency of drilling. Just as mpg vehicles has improved over the decades so has the Btu’s to drill a foot of hole. Rigs drill with electricity supplied by diesel generators. Their efficiency has greatly improved over the decades. What has also improved significant is the actual material used to drill: drill pipe and drill bits, directional drilling assemblies, drilling mud, etc. It all adds up to less time to drill a foot of hole. Which also means less electricity/diesel/Btu’s. IOW it takes less energy to drill 10,000’ of hole today then it did 30 or 40 years ago.

But that’s not the really f*cked up part of their “logic”. Bigger field were discovered decades ago. So a well might discover a 30 million bbl field. So a huge EROEI, right: energy to drill one well vs producing 30 million bbls, right? No, completely foolish math. It might have taken one well to make that discovery but one well didn’t produce 30 million bbls: it might have taken 100+ wells to produce that oil. So the EROEI would have been the energy used to drill 100+ wells vs the energy produced by 100+ wells.

So here’s the shocker for those newbies that buy into all the bullshit tossed out by those armchair “experts”. When US oil production peaked in 1971 (Texas production peaked in 1972) what was the average production from those old wells with the huge EROEI’s? I have the Texas avg. which should be close to the national average…probably a little higher. Was it 200 bopd? Maybe 300 bopd? Maybe even much higher since these wells supposedly had EROEI’s as much as 100.

The average oil production in 1972 from the wells producing from those giant conventional oil fields that had huge EROEI’s was…wait for it…wait for it…wait for it: it was 21 BOPD. In fact since the beginning of the great Texas oil boom with wells drilled with those HUGE EROEI’s the average well produced only about 20 to 22 bopd. Here are the official numbers from the TRRC:

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/oil-gas/rese ... ce-1935/em clearly

You see the problem clearly now for the newbies that blindly believe the UNDOCUMENTED bullshit tossed out about how EROEI’s have greatly declined over the decades. What has greatly declined is the number of Btu’s discovered in new onshore fields over the decades. What HAS NOT increased is the number of Btu’s it takes to drill 10,000’ of hole today compared to how many it took to do so 50 years ago.

Notice also that according to the TRRC the proven oil reserves in Texas peaked about 15 billion bbls (in 1 million wells) in 1952 and then steadily decreased to about 4.5 billion bbls in 2008. But since then increased to 14 billion bbls (in 900,000 wells) in 2008.

Again to be clear here's DOCUMENTATION: 1952…15 billion bbls in 1 million wells and in 2008…14 billion bbls in 900,000 wells. So let’s again hear that fairy tale about huge EROEI’s in the good ole days. LOL.