$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carnot', 'T')heir cornucopian beliefs that mankind will always be able to find a solution is indeed even more polemic than Peak Oil believers belief in peak supply.
PeakOil is You
THE ASPO Thread Pt. 2
Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!
by asg70 » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 11:04:18
Not all who rejoice hold this belief. In fact I think you're strawmanning.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carnot', '
')Peak Oil proponents only need to be right once.
The problem is that chicken-little syndrome winds up in causing the general public to permanently tune-out. This is ultimately counter-productive to the cause of advocating a shift away from fossil-fuels. At present the main impetus to do so is climate-change and fossil fuel depletion has moved to the background (although Elon Musk sometimes hints at it).
Therefore anyone who sees themself as concerned about PO should a) own up to being wrong and b) check methodology before fanning the flames of short-term doom once more.
Right now I am not seeing what I would consider "good methodology" applied to peak-oil. I continue to see a sort of continual straining on the part of die-hards to find a vector for short-term collapse of one sort or another. ETP was one, and current talk about debt bombs is another. The more it seems as though peak oil advocates are starting with a conclusion and working back to justify it the less credibility they appear to have. This doesn't register to the already-converted who are happy to be told what they want to hear, but it falls on deaf ears beyond the echo-chamber.
This is why, on any given day when you come here, the doomiest headlines that are aggregated on the homepage almost always originate from a small group of of perma-doomers who have been spewing daily doses of doom for a very long time. Ugo Bardi, Zerohedge, Gail, etc... and then a few random no-name bloggers who, by virtue of "blogging" are considered de-facto citizen journalists.
The credibility of the most pessimistic predictions is therefore very low.
It would be nice to see someone who doesn't seem to be harboring some massive chip on his/her shoulder or is merely interested in internet fame or hawking books to come around and really say something new and informative. The old guard of Colin Campbell, Matt Simmons and the like are gone. Those people at least seemed to have credibility from having logged lots of years in the oil industry itself. That kind of direct expertise is lacking. In its place you just have various flavor of low-level demagogues, crackpots, and attention-whores.
At least ASPO gave off the illusion of academic seriousness, but with even them gone, the movement has hit rock bottom.
BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)
HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!
by marmico » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 11:49:59
+1. Shorten it to 250 words to make a good abstract. It's all about the price. $150 oil in 2008 is $180 oil in 2018.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!
by Cog » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 11:53:43
I'm a cornie that you despise. I would not be a member here if I believed the earth's core was filled to the brim with oil. But peak oil doomers tend not to look at what is actually going on with supply and demand and look to theories like ETP. Sure, at some point, we won't be able to produce oil economically. The juice won't be worth the squeeze so to speak. But that is not now nor is it soon.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!
by ROCKMAN » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 14:33:54
Carnot – I agree with the relative unimportance of the date of global PO. We’ve been dealing with the effects of the diminishing new reserves for many years. What confuses some folks is that even the dramatic decrease in oil prices a couple of years ago was actually part of that dynamic. We’ve gone over the POD many times so I’m not going waste space doing it again. If someone doesn’t get it by now they never will.
If I get the drift correctly some have concerns we may be developing too much of a C/LO (condensate/light oil) reserve base. I doubt that will ever be a problem. I won’t approach the subject quantitatively: too much time and way too much debate. So will stick with anecdotal. For instance without C/LO Alberta could not pipeline 1+ BILLION /yr of dilbit (diluted bitumen) to the US. But even then dilbit, at 21 API, is of no use to the refineries unless more C/LO is blended with it to bring the gravity up to 32 API. That has been the average gravity refined for many years.
No one can claim that the world doesn’t hold a huge proven reserve of heavy oil/bitumen. And that’s just the reserves in Alberta and Venezuela. And almost all of it has no value without sufficient C/LO to blend with it. And where will it come from? Venezuela has already imported C/LO from Libya to blend with its crap. Given the Vz financial troubles it had to be very necessary to BUY foreign oil. Many folks are also unaware that hundreds of millions of bbls of Eagle Ford condensate have been tankered half way around the country was for years to refineries in eastern Canada. There it was blended with there heavy crude imports to meet the requirements of those refineries. The increase in production from the Eagle Ford allowed US oil blenders to stop importing condensate from foreign producers. Again, a fact that very few Americans (including a few here) were not aware of.
The need for increasing amounts of C/LO may explain a part (perhaps much) of the higher oil prices we experienced some years ago. While C/LO production did boom in after 2007 it did so primarily due to the higher oil prices. Higher oil prices needed to justify the high cost of developing the shale plays. Of course that led to the seesaw effect we’ve seen with oil prices. Current high oil consumption has increased the value of the formerly VERY INEXPENSIVE heavy oil/bitumen reserves. Which led to an increased demand for C/LO for blending. Which has put upward pressure on the oil prices we’ve experienced recently.
The long term future is cloudy to the Rockman. Low C/LO prices made those very cheap heavy oils/bitumen very attractive. But that put upwards price pressure on those rather poor but extremely abundant resources. But they also require more C/LO production which causes a price push there. But then comes pricing induced demand destruction. But in the shadows is the geologic limitations of the C/LO reservoirs. I’ll let others argue about that volume. But it doesn’t change the FACT that just like conventional oil reserves there is a limit and someday, regardless of the oil prices, there will be an ever diminishing supply of C/LO coming to market place. That might start in 5 years, 15 years or 50 years.
But that point will eventually be reached.
If I get the drift correctly some have concerns we may be developing too much of a C/LO (condensate/light oil) reserve base. I doubt that will ever be a problem. I won’t approach the subject quantitatively: too much time and way too much debate. So will stick with anecdotal. For instance without C/LO Alberta could not pipeline 1+ BILLION /yr of dilbit (diluted bitumen) to the US. But even then dilbit, at 21 API, is of no use to the refineries unless more C/LO is blended with it to bring the gravity up to 32 API. That has been the average gravity refined for many years.
No one can claim that the world doesn’t hold a huge proven reserve of heavy oil/bitumen. And that’s just the reserves in Alberta and Venezuela. And almost all of it has no value without sufficient C/LO to blend with it. And where will it come from? Venezuela has already imported C/LO from Libya to blend with its crap. Given the Vz financial troubles it had to be very necessary to BUY foreign oil. Many folks are also unaware that hundreds of millions of bbls of Eagle Ford condensate have been tankered half way around the country was for years to refineries in eastern Canada. There it was blended with there heavy crude imports to meet the requirements of those refineries. The increase in production from the Eagle Ford allowed US oil blenders to stop importing condensate from foreign producers. Again, a fact that very few Americans (including a few here) were not aware of.
The need for increasing amounts of C/LO may explain a part (perhaps much) of the higher oil prices we experienced some years ago. While C/LO production did boom in after 2007 it did so primarily due to the higher oil prices. Higher oil prices needed to justify the high cost of developing the shale plays. Of course that led to the seesaw effect we’ve seen with oil prices. Current high oil consumption has increased the value of the formerly VERY INEXPENSIVE heavy oil/bitumen reserves. Which led to an increased demand for C/LO for blending. Which has put upward pressure on the oil prices we’ve experienced recently.
The long term future is cloudy to the Rockman. Low C/LO prices made those very cheap heavy oils/bitumen very attractive. But that put upwards price pressure on those rather poor but extremely abundant resources. But they also require more C/LO production which causes a price push there. But then comes pricing induced demand destruction. But in the shadows is the geologic limitations of the C/LO reservoirs. I’ll let others argue about that volume. But it doesn’t change the FACT that just like conventional oil reserves there is a limit and someday, regardless of the oil prices, there will be an ever diminishing supply of C/LO coming to market place. That might start in 5 years, 15 years or 50 years.
But that point will eventually be reached.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!
by Cog » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 17:39:01
Are you saying that heavy oil(without dilution) can not be refined ROCKMAN with the refinery set up to do so?
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!
by Carnot » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 18:06:33
Wow, what a response. Thanks everyone. Debate is still alive . I do not propose to be right( although most of the time I am - joke). Keep the opinions coming because this is what good debate is about. I side with the peak oilers but I am not blind. Do your homework and present your arguments without prejudice. Good science is about debate. I might not agree with your view and you might not agree with me. Fine, just keep the debate civil.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!
by Darian S » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 18:10:07
My question is take the U.S. they're currently increasing production, but probably would increase even more if production in other parts wasn't falling. All the shale plays when all is said and done, won't they vanish by like 90% within years? Basically production will fall by millions upon millions of barrels. And you will need thousands upon thousands of new wells to restore production back up and if it is shale again it will again vanish within a few years, no?
So effectively barring other new sources won't the U.S itself peak permanently after the current shale plays have played their role. In the mean time demand will continue to rise, and conventional fields all over the world will continue to fall in production rate, demanding even more spectacular shale plays or similar across the globe to continue production.
How is the rest of the world? Can it put out multiple shale plays globally to kick the can?
If shale is such a great play, and so energy productive why is it that many of the companies involved are said to be having financial problems? Why is it said that massive amounts of debt were required to allow it? Debt basically allows borrowing energy from other sectors to fuel the industry.
So effectively barring other new sources won't the U.S itself peak permanently after the current shale plays have played their role. In the mean time demand will continue to rise, and conventional fields all over the world will continue to fall in production rate, demanding even more spectacular shale plays or similar across the globe to continue production.
How is the rest of the world? Can it put out multiple shale plays globally to kick the can?
If shale is such a great play, and so energy productive why is it that many of the companies involved are said to be having financial problems? Why is it said that massive amounts of debt were required to allow it? Debt basically allows borrowing energy from other sectors to fuel the industry.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!
by AdamB » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 00:06:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', 'M')y question is take the U.S. they're currently increasing production, but probably would increase even more if production in other parts wasn't falling. All the shale plays when all is said and done, won't they vanish by like 90% within years? Basically production will fall by millions upon millions of barrels. And you will need thousands upon thousands of new wells to restore production back up and if it is shale again it will again vanish within a few years, no?
Such has been the business since before you were born. You seem surprised?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '
')So effectively barring other new sources won't the U.S itself peak permanently after the current shale plays have played their role.
No reason to bar new sources when we already know of their existence, even if their economics aren't currently favorable. Oil shale, hydrates, reserve growth in existing fields, the ROZ in Texas. SPL gels and CO2 flooding in the existing shale producing fields as well.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '
') In the mean time demand will continue to rise, and conventional fields all over the world will continue to fall in production rate, demanding even more spectacular shale plays or similar across the globe to continue production.
Peak demand now has more credibility than peak oil supply, conventional fields have been falling your entire lifetime and didn't bother you any, and of course there are other "spectacular" (whatever the hell you think that means) shales, folks like the USGS, EIA and IEA have been quantifying and discussing them for years. Not that peak oilers want much to do with the geoscience behind what happened to their idea, but there it is.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '
')How is the rest of the world? Can it put out multiple shale plays globally to kick the can?
Won't even need to with how demand projections are looking.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '
')If shale is such a great play, and so energy productive why is it that many of the companies involved are said to be having financial problems?
Because oil companies having financial problems has also been going on in the patch longer than you've been alive.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '
') Why is it said that massive amounts of debt were required to allow it? Debt basically allows borrowing energy from other sectors to fuel the industry.
