[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')As global supply drops price will have to rise even if there are alternatives for transportation.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t then depends o how high a price the economy can handle. There is a limit.

[Darian S]

If there was corruption itd be under the table. And if talking billions in profit such could easily be 10s of millions

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f there was corruption itd be under the table. And if talking billions in profit such could easily be 10s of millions

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'I')n a lot of the rabid denial of peak oil, the fact that discoveries have faded to well below replacement levels is systematically ignored. This allows for the wiggle room to spout BS.

T = Integral[(R(t)/E(t))dt]

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')o one disputes peaks within cycles of development. Around here, we have even discussed the sine wave of oil production being far more representative than this nonsense single peak stuff. And yes, go study the areas that the EIA applies the Oil and Gas Supply Module to, and you will see that there is area to drill, they have quantified it, and if the price is right, any model worth its salt will go drill wells. Exactly what happened, and has continued to happen. There will come a time when there are fewer areas. And then we can begin to talk about the next cycles of development.

[Plantagenet]

The US currently has proven reserves of about 35 billion bbls of oil and the EIA estimates the US has additional technically recoverable reservers of ca. 198 billion bbls of oi.

Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States

Thats a lot of oil.

All that remains to see is how expensive it will be to extract that oil and what kind of production rates can be attained as TOS development continues into the future and the "sweet spots" in the TOS basins are used up.


Extra credit points if you can spot the moment when TOS reserves began to be added to overall US proven reserves

Cheers!

[Darian S]

If the future cornucopia wasnt in doubt why would we hear stuff like the following
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"I think the question, a little bit in the longer term is - is this the last big rise in U.S. production?" said Taylor, chief executive at Vitol, which trades more than 7 percent of global oil and has a large presence in U.S. markets.-reuters

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Darian S', 'I')f the future cornucopia wasnt in doubt why would we hear stuff like the following
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"I think the question, a little bit in the longer term is - is this the last big rise in U.S. production?" said Taylor, chief executive at Vitol, which trades more than 7 percent of global oil and has a large presence in U.S. markets.-reuters

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or the same reason we heard this, obviously.

[spike]

Darian, a chief executive in the oil industry is not an expert on oil supply (ignoring the fact that Vitol is a refiner). Total's CEO told us oil production would never pass 85 mb/d, and there are numerous cases over the past 4 decades of CEOs talking about the sunset of the industry (Mobil, Arco, etc.)

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spike', 'D')arian, a chief executive in the oil industry is not an expert on oil supply (ignoring the fact that Vitol is a refiner). Total's CEO told us oil production would never pass 85 mb/d, and there are numerous cases over the past 4 decades of CEOs talking about the sunset of the industry (Mobil, Arco, etc.)

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve heard some of what's been counted can't actually be sold on the world market and world peaked last decade. Not sure if true.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve heard some of what's been counted can't actually be sold on the world market and world peaked last decade. Not sure if true.

[spike]

Can't be sold? Have you heard about people dumping LTO into the ocean? There might be some discount on the price if the mix doesn't match refining needs, but you might have noticed that despite "conventional" oil supposedly having peaked in 2005, there is no shortage of products.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')source of information is always important.

[Darian S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spike', 'C')an't be sold? Have you heard about people dumping LTO into the ocean? There might be some discount on the price if the mix doesn't match refining needs, but you might have noticed that despite "conventional" oil supposedly having peaked in 2005, there is no shortage of products.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell it seems that to blend, you need other grades in sufficient quantities. If LTO, or the rumored super light condensate were true, is produced at too high a quantity it may exceed market capacity and need to be stored.

This may be worsened if demand cannot increase to make use of the added supply also.

[dcoyne78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is the last peak oil blog.

[Carnot]

Certain posters seem to be taking great delight in yet another Peak Oil Blog ceasing to operate. True many of the projections of these blogs have not been realised in the times frames suggested but the fact remain is that one day oil production will peak, Peak Demand or not. I do not profess when that this might happen, but happen it will.

What is clear is that many of those rejoicing in the demise of ASPO USA clearly fail to understand the concept and principles of Peak Oil and EROEI, the latter being especially pertinent when considering shale oil and gas.Their cornucopian beliefs that mankind will always be able to find a solution is indeed even more polemic than Peak Oil believers belief in peak supply.

Many barrels of oil remain in the ground. Whether they can be extracted economically remains the be seen, as with each decade passing the energy required to extract these yet to be developed and yet to be found resources increases.

How many proponents of biofuels failed to grasp the subject of EROEI. How many billions have been wasted on futile projects that had no hope of ever being economic. What about cellulosic ethanol. Still awaiting a technology breakthrough; the thermodynamic equivalent of perpetual motion. No-one talks about algae any longer. Small wonder.

Just remember that cornucopians have to be right all the time. Peak Oil proponents only need to be right once. Some may have been premature, but happen it surely will. Don't forget, "he who laughs last, laughs loudest".