[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')aving plummeted all the way to 21st place perhaps it is obvious why I have not played in the past. I am pretty terrible at guessing and I never denied it in any serious manner.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')aving plummeted all the way to 21st place perhaps it is obvious why I have not played in the past. I am pretty terrible at guessing and I never denied it in any serious manner.

[PeakOiler]

We have a new leader as of Nov. 28th:



Congrats Salinski!

Reminder: I'm not going to be the scorekeeper after this year, so if y'all are going to play this game next year, someone better start a new thread so players can start making their guesses!

[Revi]

I have dropped to 8th! Oh well, I was a contender at one point. We'll see, but it looks like oil will hang around $60 until the new year.

[Subjectivist]

Looks like I will end around 17th place. Bah Humbug!

[PeakOiler]

Yeah, I didn't do as well as I had hoped either. Looks like I was too early to guess oil would get to $70 this year. Perhaps in 2018.

Here's the scorecard as of Dec. 12th:
Kublikhan took 1st place!

[vtsnowedin]

Middle of the pack for me is my best ever finish. Wait tell next year I tell yah.

[onlooker]

So when can we start with our guesses for next year?

[PeakOiler]

As I mentioned above, Onlooker, I'm not going to be the scorekeeper anymore. Someone else needs to host the game...

[PeakOiler]

Here's the scorecard as of Dec. 19th:


and the scorecard for Dec. 27th after a new high price for the year:


I'll post the final scorecard for 2017 after the EIA report next week.

[vtsnowedin]

WOW Revi really took a hit this week.

[Tanada]

Hasn't Salinsky won before? Say, could you create a list of the top five place holders for each year you ran the contest? It seems to me those people who scored in the top five more than once should be given more consideration when they post about oil economics.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I')t seems to me those people who scored in the top five more than once should be given more consideration when they post about oil economics.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'H')asn't Salinsky won before? Say, could you create a list of the top five place holders for each year you ran the contest? It seems to me those people who scored in the top five more than once should be given more consideration when they post about oil economics.

[Outcast_Searcher]

OK. Kub in the top 5 the 5 most recent years.

That's pretty impressive, even if not formally proving anything. So congrats.

So I'll ask: Any strategy or insights you wish to share, even if just general observations about oil or the economy (or anything else?)

I'm always happy to learn something new. Thanks in advance if you care to share anything.

[kublikhan]

Thanks Outcast. Well for one thing I tend to predict less volatility than most. Here was the high low spread in actual annual oil prices for the past 5 years:

year spread kub predicted spread
2017 18 15
2016 28 20
2015 27 30
2014 54 25
2013 22 35

That's an average high-low spread of only $30 a year. And that's including the the highly volatile year 2014. The average spread is only $24 for the other 4 years. After being deluged with oil glut news I started factoring that in as well. I figured the large volumes of oil in storage would act to mitigate any supply side shocks and put a lid on volatility. So I reduced my spread further in 2016 and 2017.

For the price levels I pick, I tend to first look at forecasts by the major banks and/or energy organisations. I figure they must have whole teams of guys looking at this stuff, why not leverage their work? If they differ widely I use my own judgment to choose. For example, for 2017 I factored in the OPEC deal raising prices off of their 2016 values. And the global economy doing well enough to cause oil demand to continue to grow. I figured prices at the end of the year would be higher than at the beginning so I made the close closer to my high. All values rounded to the nearest $5 for simplicity.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')hanks Outcast. Well for one thing I tend to predict less volatility than most. Here was the high low spread in actual annual oil prices for the past 5 years:

year spread kub predicted spread
2017 18 15
2016 28 20
2015 27 30
2014 54 25
2013 22 35

That's an average high-low spread of only $30 a year. And that's including the the highly volatile year 2014. The average spread is only $24 for the other 4 years. After being deluged with oil glut news I started factoring that in as well. I figured the large volumes of oil in storage would act to mitigate any supply side shocks and put a lid on volatility. So I reduced my spread further in 2016 and 2017.

For the price levels I pick, I tend to first look at forecasts by the major banks and/or energy organisations. I figure they must have whole teams of guys looking at this stuff, why not leverage their work? If they differ widely I use my own judgment to choose. For example, for 2017 I factored in the OPEC deal raising prices off of their 2016 values. And the global economy doing well enough to cause oil demand to continue to grow. I figured prices at the end of the year would be higher than at the beginning so I made the close closer to my high. All values rounded to the nearest $5 for simplicity.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')hanks Outcast. Well for one thing I tend to predict less volatility than most. Here was the high low spread in actual annual oil prices for the past 5 years:

year spread kub predicted spread
2017 18 15
2016 28 20
2015 27 30
2014 54 25
2013 22 35

That's an average high-low spread of only $30 a year. And that's including the the highly volatile year 2014. The average spread is only $24 for the other 4 years.

[Tanada]

Kublikahn for ranking in the top 5 for 5 years in a row,
Salinsky for ranking in the top 5 for 3 years in a row and winning once,
SteinarN for ranking in the top five twice in the last five years and winning once;

You are each now designated the new Special Rank of Master Prognosticator

Congratulations to all and Happy New Year!

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'K')ublikahn for ranking in the top 5 for 5 years in a row,
Salinsky for ranking in the top 5 for 3 years in a row and winning once,
SteinarN for ranking in the top five twice in the last five years and winning once;

You are each now designated the new Special Rank of Master Prognosticator

Congratulations to all and Happy New Year!