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Peak Oil: A Love Story

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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Jun 2017, 11:25:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t's a deeply unpopular message, so maybe I'll start to tell people it's like a historical documentary of the time when we all thought oil would run out.


Peak oil isn't about running out. Or it hasn't been in the modern peak oil era, Jimmy Carter was the last "running out" advocate I'm aware of. And people have been claiming we were running out since 1886, are you going to do all that history as well, or just the modern claims of the same?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')That might be a better sell than telling them what's actually going on. Say it's a doc about the first decade of the 21st century and one man's obsession with what he saw as reality. Much better that way.


Could be. But the instant you touch history, the REAL history of scarcity claims, you are back in the late 1800's for oil. What fun would that be, talking about all the times the scarcity folks have screwed it up, unless you truly want to understand why the modern folks are recycling ideas older than a century?
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Mon 12 Jun 2017, 12:48:22

Thanks Adam B. I really don't try to tell the whole history of oil production. It's really a film about a man with an obsession and how that obsession affects his life.

It's entertaining, and people seem to like it.

That's what matters.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Mon 12 Jun 2017, 12:50:22

Here's the promo from Youtube. It's just 3 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owUIkQJ_btM&t=18s
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Jun 2017, 19:18:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')hanks Adam B. I really don't try to tell the whole history of oil production.


Too bad. If you did, you would know that folks recycling the same ideas a century from a century ago are unlikely to be any more right, and more importantly, you would understand WHY. That tends to be the key piece when I teach these things in a learning setting.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') It's really a film about a man with an obsession and how that obsession affects his life.

It's entertaining, and people seem to like it.

That's what matters.


I get ya. And I think you are right, entertainment is what the world is about now, not science, history, critical thinking or objective analysis. Such things are just...old school..in today's world of entertainment being paramount.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Jun 2017, 19:21:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere's the promo from Youtube. It's just 3 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owUIkQJ_btM&t=18s


Pretty good in the entertainment side of things! Leans on pseudo-science a little heavy for my taste, but entertaining, you betcha! Can I get written permission to use it in a professional training environment? Then I can walk through it with folks, point by point, lining up the science and whatnot and comparing it not only to your ideas but their history and others that have used them, and then demonstrate why they never worked. But to do that detailed of a breakdown, I probably need the owners written permission.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 14:42:04

Why not? You can use it as long as you don't alter it in any way. Maybe you want a copy of the film? PM me and I can get one to you, for $20 plus shipping. You seem to want to prove some kind of point. I really don't see how I could help you with that.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 13 Jun 2017, 18:54:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')hy not? You can use it as long as you don't alter it in any way.


Would never consider it. It wouldn't be such a wonderful counterpoint to the history of the oil industry and resource development if it was altered.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') Maybe you want a copy of the film? PM me and I can get one to you, for $20 plus shipping. You seem to want to prove some kind of point. I really don't see how I could help you with that.


I don't do "seem" to prove points, I prove points. But just based on the trailer clips you've provided, and having seen your interviews from years back, some of which I believe you linked to at this website, it might be a wonderful example of modern peak oil thinking.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 13:16:50

Really, it's more of a glimpse back into peak oil thinking during the years from around 2005-2009 or so. We thought a little differently, but our understanding has evolved. I think of Peak Oil as a lens through which to view the world. I think about economics, resources, and politics and how they are affected by resources and scarcity.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 14 Jun 2017, 18:53:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'R')eally, it's more of a glimpse back into peak oil thinking during the years from around 2005-2009 or so.


I quite agree with you. Your perspective is specific to a particular time, and is quite representative.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') We thought a little differently, but our understanding has evolved.


Well...sort of. I'm not certain that repeating previously discredited ideas is a sign of "evolving". Some peakers are still picking and choosing their favorite oils and rearranging the very definition of oil in order to explain their continued claim of peak oil a decade ago, their zealotry being far more powerful than any facts, science or reality.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') I think of Peak Oil as a lens through which to view the world. I think about economics, resources, and politics and how they are affected by resources and scarcity.


I'm not sure a peak oil "lens" is worth much, considering how thoroughly it has been discredited at this point. As you well know, peak oil (regardless of the number of actual peak oils, as the sine wave model of oil production understands) isn't about scarcity, production certainly is not the same as resources, and politicians don't know any more about either than peak oil websites do. Now, if you can take a Resource Econ 101 class....now that is worth an order of magnitude more than peak oil stuff.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 09:37:47

Thanks for all the great advice! It's good to know that oil is inexhaustible and that we were just deluded. It takes a lot of pressure off. Really!
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 11:42:36

Revi - For your consideration: you et al really haven't been looking at the world thru a "PO lens" but thru a "POD lens. That would seem to pull you et al and Adam closer to being on the same page.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 20:53:17

Should be the other way round. Adam has a simplistic view of the situation (there's no peak, so we're doing fine) whereas POD shows that some effects of PO take place even before total production peaks. That's why I don't bother reading his posts.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 22:03:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')hanks for all the great advice! It's good to know that oil is inexhaustible and that we were just deluded.


Come on Revi, you haven't caught the pstarr "alternative reality" disease have you? Of course oil will peak, already has as a matter of fact, the issue now being how many more times it might, and how quickly peak demand makes it irrelevant.

And peak oilers aren't "deluded"...just generally ignorant of economics is all. Like I said, a resource economics course would cure this for all by the alt-fact types.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 09:16:22

I showed the film in Rockland and at the Good Life Center. I am now reading Melissa Coleman's book about her experience with the Nearings. They were the founders of the back to the land movement. Really interesting staying there, and participating in their Monday night discussion tradition. Years after they died we are still being influenced by their wisdom:

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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 21 Sep 2017, 21:41:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') showed the film in Rockland and at the Good Life Center. I am now reading Melissa Coleman's book about her experience with the Nearings. They were the founders of the back to the land movement.


Really? They founded it...before say...the Amish? Unlikely.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') Really interesting staying there, and participating in their Monday night discussion tradition. Years after they died we are still being influenced by their wisdom:

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http://goodlife.org


And those who beat them to it don't even require a fan club!
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Mon 25 Sep 2017, 08:03:18

I met Eliott Coleman this weekend. He is still farming at 79, and his daughter wrote a very interesting book. They farmed the 60 acres they bought from the Nearings. The book is called My Life is In Your Hands, and it recounts the struggles and tragedies of the homesteaders in the 1970's. It reads like a novel, but it's non fiction.

https://www.amazon.com/This-Life-Your-Hands-Family/dp/0061958328

Well worth a read!

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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Tue 26 Sep 2017, 13:35:45

I still have copies of the DVD for $20 plus shipping (Probably $10) available. PM me if you want one.

Here's a preview:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1421060864/peak-oil-a-love-story
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 09:06:08

I think peak oil has hit it's nadir in terms of popularity nowadays. I hope it makes a comeback, but I think it will need a new name, like reality. We'll see. It's been interesting. I knew about it since the Scientific American article back in 1998. I denied it for years, got a big truck and pretended I didn't know, then began to see the inevitable reality of it. It has taken longer to transpire than I thought, but I think we're in it now. It's going to be an interesting ride from here on out. I am glad to see renewables take off, but dismayed that the Empire struck back with our present "leaders".
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 12 Oct 2017, 10:29:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think peak oil has hit it's nadir in terms of popularity nowadays.


Oh boy. Sure seems like the acolytes got kicked in the teeth for not mentioning that when it happened a decade ago, what it really meant was low prices and glut.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') I hope it makes a comeback, but I think it will need a new name, like reality. We'll see. It's been interesting. I knew about it since the Scientific American article back in 1998. I denied it for years, got a big truck and pretended I didn't know, then began to see the inevitable reality of it.


How could you deny it? Peak oil will happen. But Colin Campbell began declaring it happening back in 1990, and by the time you apparently found out, he had already been playing kick the can for a decade. Didn't that strike you as a bit odd? If the guy had the slightest clue, why was he pulling the Harold Camping routine?

The REAL question is, why weren't people asking in 1998 "well, this guy has been claiming this for awhile now, and playing the kick the can, so why pay attention to him now?".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('revi', '
')It has taken longer to transpire than I thought, but I think we're in it now.


With low prices and glut as the "it". See the problem here, considering THIS was what the original claim was? Something just...not...quite...right...here. You ever get caught up in that draft Revi? Me neither.

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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') It's going to be an interesting ride from here on out. I am glad to see renewables take off, but dismayed that the Empire struck back with our present "leaders".


In the entire political spectrum there was exactly one person worse than our current "leader". And the democrats made darn sure, by hook or by crook, that she was the one selected to compete against him. And everyone involved in the leadership levels in both parties should be fired for having strayed so far from the people they represent.
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Re: Peak Oil: A Love Story

Unread postby Revi » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 21:10:17

We're in a pickle. Call it anything you want. If you agree that debt is borrowing from the future we are over 20 trillion in the hole and going deeper. It can't really keep growing, but it will. The "tax plan" adds about 1.5 trillion, meanwhile we add about a trillion per year to the debt. I know people say it doesn't matter, but it needs to be paid off eventually, or defaulted on. No other way out of the mess we're in. It's going to be a wild ride from here on in. Hold on!
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