by kublikhan » Tue 12 Sep 2017, 09:41:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', 'T')his is also not a vehicle issue. It is all about energy. Those car companies who start by building battery manufacturing facilities will succeed. Others will just be dependent. I just heard Mercedes is building a battery plant and entering the home storage market...they will be successful. GM will be left behind.
No company in today's world is an island. Everyone one of them gets parts from someone else. Tesla is just as dependent as they are. Infact moreso. Remember the whole fiasco with Tesla's part supplier for it's
Falcom wing doors? or myriad other
supplier issues? The other companies have well developed supply chains and deal with first rate parts suppliers. Tesla has to deal with 2nd rate suppliers and the defects/delays that come with it. As for the batteries, Tesla is still playing catch up to BYD.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')lon Musk’s Master Plan, Part Deux envisioned a future where Teslas are used for each type of terrestrial transport, from passenger vehicles to buses and trucks, supplemented by a seamless suite of solar-and-storage products. This vision was probably best captured in Tesla’s announcement of its offer to acquire SolarCity: “We would be the world’s only vertically integrated energy company offering end-to-end clean energy products to our customers.” In fact, Tesla would be the second such company. China’s BYD (short for “Build Your Dreams”) has already built Elon’s dream -- and has done so profitably.
BYD versus TeslaWhen comparing the two companies head to head, the data shows that in almost every relevant dimension, BYD has gone further and is growing faster.
Passenger vehicle EVs: BYD not only outsold Tesla last year, but its planned growth this year is higher.
Battery use: BYD produced 10 gigawatt-hours of lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries last year in its 10-gigawatt-hour factory, and it is now building a second manufacturing facility. It expects to produce 16 gigawatt-hours in 2016, keeping pace with Tesla’s growth rate. LFP does have substantial advantages, the biggest being its dimensional stability when charged or discharged, heated or cooled. This allows BYD to recharge its buses at 300 kilowatts without a battery cooling system. (It also relegates Tesla’s superchargers to being the world’s second-fastest charging stations.) The advantages carry over to durability; BYD buses come with a 12-year battery warranty, and many of the earliest generations of BYD e6 taxis -- still in use -- have surpassed 500,000 miles per unit on their original battery packs.
Energy storage: BYD claims to dominate the North American energy storage market and had deployed more than 295 megawatts/295 megawatt-hours across 66 countries at the end of Q2.
EV buses: BYD has four electric-bus manufacturing facilities and shipped its 10,000th unit this year, with a further 7,000 units on order. Recently, its winter trial for EV buses successfully concluded in Edmonton, Canada (average daily January high: 17º F). A multi-bus/solar panel/1-megawatt energy storage project (geared toward limiting demand charges) with another city even farther north may soon emerge.
EV trucks: BYD has offered electric delivery vans since 2014 and has expanded into short-haul trucks; it has also entered the construction market with its first electric cement mixer. Though less of a head start than with buses, the lead is large and growing with each purchase and product line extension.
Final thoughtsBYD is ahead -- and in some cases far ahead -- of Tesla in every dimension of Elon Musk’s grand vision. Autonomy is the only category where BYD is not winning. As such, every one of Musk's incisive insights about the transformative power of electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics and battery storage, and the cost advantages enjoyed by the biggest giga-scale producers, now work more in BYD’s favor than in Tesla’s.
Musk is playing catch-up in a game he thought he had just invented.
In a nod of acknowledgement to BYD’s 180,000 worldwide employees -- and to correct our overly Silicon Valley-centric perspective here in North America -- we would be well served to give BYD's CEO Wang Chuanfu his due. He clearly won round one.