[Cog]

Renewables will grow in use when the economic conditions justify them.

[KaiserJeep]

Gentlefolk, don't go all simplistic about this. The dieoff as you are calling it, will be just as unevenly distribuited as was the FF-powered population surge that endangered the world. The most vulnerable people are those who only exist because of all that FF-powered food production.

So ask yourselves what will the average US citizen do as fuel costs climb and the 3rd world starves? The process of the end of oil will gradually worsen over a period of years, it's not like throwing a switch or running off a cliff. Nor are we as vulnerable as they, we in the USA only spend about 6% of our income on food. Lots of income elasticity there to accomodate and compensate for newly expensive food, delivered by newly expensive transport, and cooked on newly expensive kitchen fuels.

Granted, US citizens will scream to high heaven as the world changes and they by necessity must beome obsessed with food. Our lifestyles will change dramatically over a span of years. Government checks will not feed those who have retired or live on welfare. There will be hardships on display on the nightly news, and the Internet will positively be ablaze.

I believe it will be the Apocalypse for the two groups of criminals we call Democrats and Republicans. It happened on their watch, and if anybody looks too comfortable, they obviously knew about the coming emergency, they should be the first to be lynched. The 1% are also legitimate targets, in a country where even the lower class has easy access to guns.

The times they will be changing, and the country will change with it. I have been deliberately a little vague, because such catastrophies as this are unprecedented, as will be our response. Such hardships as are to come may cause nobility to break out all around us, and a sharing of food, and caring for the disadvataged.

Except that is not what ape tribes do when faced with a food shortage. Apes attack their neighboring tribes and take their food and consume it, and then consume their neighbors themselves if things continue to worsen. It is only when things reach their most desperate that apes consume their own tribal members.

BTW, them city dwelling people are not in MY tribe.

I am desperately hoping that when it is apparent to all that the FF's will run out, we will still have the where-with-all to do the power down and to transition to renewables. I agree with the assessment about that above which says such things are not happening until the situation is desperate and obvious to all. I plan to own land that will let me grow food, and a house that does not depend upon FF's to operate. If not many of my neighbors have what I have, then they can superinsulate what they do have. Within the shell of every average 2400-sq. ft. home can be built a 500-sq. ft. home, by building a partition three feet thick and filling it with straw or shredded paper. You can similarly abandon one floor and live in a basement or the first floor of a 2-story home, adding insulation above. Note that Europe already has 10s of thousands of superinsulated Passive Homes, and that Norway has already got 98% carbon-free power. (The way they measure that is questionable.)

Affluent 1st World citizens have options, is the point I am making. Options not available to 3rd World people living in shacks and already malnourished. We will survive, adapt, and eventually prosper in a smaller sense, and they will die.

One final thought for you: In case you missed it, the process of the end of the world began decades ago.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', '
')I've made some predictions here that may come back to bite me So I'll stick my neck out and predict in 50 years there will be a whole industry devoted to removing CO2 from the air, turning it to limestone, and using it to fill old strip mines.

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The US will never change voluntarily.

[Newfie]

Until they come about.

[Cog]

Type 2 diabetics will survive this as their need for insulin meds will go away as soon as the pounds melt away. As a matter of fact, a lot of people won't need the meds they are currently prescribed due to their obesity.

If you are a Type 1 diabetic or on various anti-immune drugs from a transplant then yeah you are going to die.

[Plantagenet]

Unfortunately the US Power Grid isn't actually switching to renewables---its switching from coal to Natural Gas.

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('baha', '
')Plantagenet - Thank you too. I always love your pretty pictures You aren't paying attention. I didn't say anything about the grid switching to renewables...I said burn the damn thing down

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '[')img]https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2016.07.01/chart2.png[/img]
Unfortunately the US Power Grid isn't actually switching to renewables---its switching from coal to Natural Gas.

[kublikhan]

Baha - I think your hatred of your utility is leading you to see off grid living through rose tinted glasses. It is more expensive than living on the grid. It is less convenient. And less efficient. This is really only appealing to a small niche of society who want to do something like this for reasons other than economics. Or for households that lack grid electricity to begin with and are far away from a grid connection. The grid is not a monster to be slain. It is a system that delivers electricity in the most cost efficient manner possible. Sure there are deficiencies and areas for improvement. But that doesn't mean it is wiser to simply shut the whole thing down and go off grid with solar and batteries.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')reaming of cutting the cord and getting rid of the big bad utility? Perhaps you should think again. Renewable electricity has lots of benefits, but stand-alone (off-grid) systems are more expensive and complex, and require more maintenance than batteryless grid-tied systems. And there are other big advantages to installing renewable energy systems on the grid. Before you make your decision about whether to be off grid or not, let’s take a closer look at the pros and cons.

Off-Grid Disadvantages
When you make the decision to go off grid, you take on the duties of the cursed utility you were trying to avoid. My experience is that you tend to curse them less and appreciate them more as you tackle these responsibilities.

First and foremost, making all of your own electricity is costly. If you are already on the grid, it’s unlikely that installing an off-grid RE system will provide you with cheaper electricity, unless your area has generous incentives, very high utility rates, or both. (Note that most financial incentive programs apply to on-grid systems and do not apply to batteries.)

System maintenance and troubleshooting are serious, ongoing responsibilities with off-grid systems. When you pay your utility bill, you’re paying for those hard workers in business suits and coveralls to take care of things. If you are the utility, you have to do the work all by yourself, plus buy the coveralls.

Off-grid systems use batteries to store electricity and provide it for your home, but batteries don’t last forever. In fact, they will need replacement every five to fifteen years (typically less than ten, unless you have deep pockets for high-quality, industrial-type batteries). A minimal bank of batteries will cost at least $1,000, and long-lasting industrial batteries for the same application might cost three to four times that much. And it’s not just the cost in dollars that’s a disadvantage. There’s maintenance and replacement time, aching backs from lifting that heavy metal, and perhaps labor cost—and then there’s the environmental cost of making, moving, recycling, and replacing all that lead.

Batteries have another, less tangible cost, and that’s energy waste. At their best, batteries are 90% efficient. That means if you put in 10 kilowatt-hours (kWh), you will get out less than 9 kWh. As they age, their efficiency drops further, and they are also affected by temperature. All this adds up to more energy waste the larger, older, hotter, or colder your battery bank is.

In comparison to grid-tied systems, stand-alone systems have another serious drawback—wasted surplus energy. When a grid-tied renewable electricity system makes more than the homeowners use, the surplus is fed to the utility, creating an energy credit and allowing the system to always run at full capacity. Nothing is wasted, and the grid is figuratively (not literally) 100% efficient—you get credited for all that you throw their way. When you’re off grid, your surplus must be used or it will be wasted. With most off-grid PV systems, the array simply gets turned off by the controller when the batteries are full, so the energy is never generated. With most wind and hydro systems, the excess energy is shunted to a dump load, typically an air- or water-heating element. Savvy off-gridders are aware of their system operation, and change their energy-use habits when there’s a surplus—like choosing to do laundry in the middle of the day. But it’s not automatic, and it takes some social adjustments to switch from energy sipper to energy gorger depending on the weather.

Most off-grid systems need a backup engine-generator, and this is another big disadvantage of these systems. Generator electricity is expensive when you calculate the cost of purchasing, fueling, and maintaining these dirty, noisy machines. And if you buy a cheap model, you might end up with what veteran off-gridder and RE installer Roy Butler calls an “800-hour throwaway” and have to replace it sooner than you wished.

If living off grid sounds like a bit more trouble than you expected, good! I’d like you to be successful with your renewable energy plans, and being realistic is a good first step. My family moved off grid in 1981, and my wife and I have raised a raft of kids and run several businesses from home, so I know that it’s not always a picnic. We’ve been through multiple generators, and have had hard times when we had to wait for the weather to change before doing the laundry. The social and familial implications of living with a variable energy source shouldn’t be underestimated!

On-Grid Advantages
Using renewable energy on the grid avoids most, if not all, of the disadvantages of being off grid. The utility is like a big, 100% efficient battery that can absorb all your surplus energy. In addition, you can lean on it as hard as you want to for as much additional electricity as you might need. If you can’t afford a renewable-electric system large enough to supply all your needs, you can install whatever portion you can afford. If you’re off grid, you have to make it all, one way or another, and if you’re strapped for cash when you’re putting in your system, you’ll end up making a lot of it with fossil fuels. When the grid uses fossil fuels, at least it uses them more efficiently, and with less noise and pollution than a home generator.

With grid-tied renewable energy systems, there is no absolute need to conserve electricity or change your lifestyle. You can choose to live the same way you lived before you installed an RE system. Your system will offset some or all of your usage, and your daily life can continue unchanged.

Weighing the Costs
From the perspective of more than 25 years of off-grid living, my advice is not to unplug from the grid if it’s there. “greening up” the grid with your renewable electricity will benefit you, the environment, and your community better than cutting the cord.

[Newfie]

Kilublkan,
That's about right. Our boat is obviously off grid, because it needs to be. Our cabin is on grid because it needs to be. How do I maintain the system when I'm here only 4 months a year?

If someone has a place that is their "doomstead" then I think a going hybrid is a good solution solution. Run renewables for critical loads, all D.C. circuits. Lights, fridge. If you need AC run an inverted for say the water pump or microwave. But what else does you NEED? Air conditioning is a luxury. Heat is pretty much out of the question unless you have a purpose built house. Have a battery charger to pick up the batteries if you have a run of bad days.

This way you have a grid connection for non essentials and D.C. for your core. Keeps the system smaller, more affordable, easier to maintain. Doable.

But does not make much sense in a 3000 sq ft McMansion with 3 52" TVs and AC and an electric stove.

[KaiserJeep]

baha, get a life. I repeat, the power grid is a national asset. Nor do most people even have a desire to own an energy-producing roof. In my HOA neighborhood of 38 homes, in the ideal regulatory environment of California, with State and Federal tax incentives that make it essentially FREE, exactly four have Solar PV and two have solar hot water and two have solar pool heaters. I would not have spent my own money, I did a $0 solar lease called a Power Purchase Agreement.

This vision you have of a nation of off-grid homes is a silly fantasy. There are more people who would give up electricity than would own their own powerplant - or water well, sewage treatment, or garden - let alone chickens or other livestock.

It's just not happening, ever. That's why they live in cities, understand, so they don't even need to think about those things. That's why they suck down cheeseburgers while condemning the beef industry, and plastic junk while railing against "Big Oil". Brainless nebbishes, who assume the persona they covet online. If I thought we could get honest results, I would use a forum poll to prove this. I am convinced there are only a handful of PeakOil.com members that are partially or wholly off-grid.