[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('donstewart', '
')http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... iable.html

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('donstewart', '@')
Accusing Bardi of being in some sort of 'peak oil doomer conspiracy' would not be a very helpful way to think about the issues, in my opinion.
Don Stewart

[marmico]

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index



https://publish.manheim.com/en/services ... index.html

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - "Or, alternatively, peak oil didn't happen." Yes, obviously peak global oil didn't happen back when oil ran up to $100+/bbl since the world has been producing much since then. But the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) has certainly been in full play. Which is also why oil prices fell more then 50% a couple of years ago.

But that's not much of a surprise to the Rockman: he's been directly observing the POD since 1975 when he began his career at Mobil Oil. Fortunately a lot of "civilians" are beginning to appreciate the POD today. Unfortunately many others still think the actually date of global peak oil will automatically represent some dramatic sea change.

[ralfy]

If you consider population, however, and look at production per capita, then the peak happened back in the late 1970s.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - "Or, alternatively, peak oil didn't happen." Yes, obviously peak global oil didn't happen back when oil ran up to $100+/bbl since the world has been producing much since then.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I')f you consider population, however, and look at production per capita, then the peak happened back in the late 1970s.

[marmico]

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=27032

To pre-empt the doom porners from reverting to the usual canard, yabbut, yabbut, the US has deindustrialized, I would refer you to the linked paper.

http://faculty.georgetown.edu/aml6/pdfs ... ensity.pdf

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')anufacturing output grew 121 percent over 25 years [ending in 2007], but manufacturing energy use grew only 22 percent. This difference represents a huge decline in energy intensity.

[marmico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')DP includes the sale of the $71 million Andy Warhol soup can.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', '
')To pre-empt the doom porners from reverting to the usual canard, yabbut, yabbut, the US has deindustrialized, I would refer you to the linked paper.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')anufacturing output grew 121 percent over 25 years [ending in 2007], but manufacturing energy use grew only 22 percent. This difference represents a huge decline in energy intensity.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t's not the nominal energy, it's the embodied energy that counts.

[donstewart]

Intellectual Dishonesty

Having been accused of quoting only doomers to illustrate the need for and use of complex models, let me offer up Adrian Bejan’s Constructal Law, which I have referenced many times. See this link:

https://constructal.org/2016/08/21/the- ... -a-review/

Oops! As you see, it is behind a pay wall. You can peek behind the wall for around $30. Much of the writing about Bejan’s theory is either in books you have to buy or in professional journals behind pay walls. On the occasions when I have quoted from the popular applications of the law, such as the functioning of traffic lights, I have been accused of making light of the severe problems of the world.

But I can summarize Bejan in just a few words: If something is flowing, it will evolve in the direction of easier flow.

So one way of looking at our problems is to expect that the fossil fuels we depend on will flow more and more easily. And if it turns out that the Nasty Second Law is not cooperating with that project, then we can expect that the good feeling and comfort that we currently get by burning fossil fuels will be obtained with some easier method through a revolution in psychology or materials or something. Maybe we can just keep producing more GDP with less and less fossil fuels? I consider Bejan to have a complex model.

But then we have to look at some short term considerations:

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-great-u- ... very-ugly/

Steve borrows some numbers from Blooomberg and comes up with some evidence that the whole ‘shale oil’ experience in the US has been a financial debacle. And if we subtract the shale oil from global production of crude oil, then the picture becomes much more sobering. It’s not likely that counting on being able to produce more GDP with less fossil fuels is going to pay those debts. I consider Steve's post to be using a simple model...debts must be paid.

So…how’s that for a nicely balanced post?….Don Stewart

[asg70]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('donstewart', '
')Having been accused of quoting only doomers

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('donstewart', 'I')ntellectual Dishonesty

Having been accused of quoting only doomers to illustrate the need for and use of complex models, let me offer up Adrian Bejan’s Constructal Law, which I have referenced many times. See this link:

https://constructal.org/2016/08/21/the- ... -a-review/

Oops! As you see, it is behind a pay wall. You can peek behind the wall for around $30. Much of the writing about Bejan’s theory is either in books you have to buy or in professional journals behind pay walls. On the occasions when I have quoted from the popular applications of the law, such as the functioning of traffic lights, I have been accused of making light of the severe problems of the world.

But I can summarize Bejan in just a few words: If something is flowing, it will evolve in the direction of easier flow.

[donstewart]

Adam B
I can assure you that Adrian Bejan is quite serious. He has written many thermodynamics textbooks. He is a Professor of Mechanical Engineering. He uses simple principles to explain complex phenomenon such as the branching of rivers or air passages in the lungs and the design of airport terminals.

His claims about 'a new law of thermodynamics' has not met with universal acclaim, however. He has said he gets a better reception in Europe than in the US.

As for SRSRocco, debts is about as serious as one can get in our financialized world.

Don Stewart

[donstewart]

Adam B
Let me pose a simple question: when fossil fuels are burned, what is it, from a human perspective, that is ultimately flowing?

My answer: neurotransmitters and hormones.

For extra credit: If fossil fuels become unavailable, will it be possible to keep the neurotransmitters and hormones flowing? If so, how?

Don Stewart

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('donstewart', 'A')dam B
Let me pose a simple question: when fossil fuels are burned, what is it, from a human perspective, that is ultimately flowing?

[donstewart]

Adam B
You are way too focused on your slide rule to understand anything that Bejan says.
Don Stewart