by evilgenius » Thu 22 Dec 2016, 13:19:31
Perhaps we can gain some insight into how global disruption can happen by taking a look at the Arab Spring. It was a food shortage that brought it on, not a desire for increased democracy. The food shortage came about because of a poor Russian harvest, which was due to climate change, or something like that. It's the environment that the Arab Spring took place in that I find interesting. It took place in the environment of patronage societies where the wealth was concentrated at the top, or in power centers, and it was expected that the government or the monarchy would dispense resources by means of largess. When there wasn't enough food, however, the powers that be were forced to make choices.
Those societies were not governed by consensus. They weren't governed by an understanding by the people that they were all in it together, and if they failed they failed together, and according to a manner understood by the consensus as to how to deal with it. In other words, the West has laws for dealing with such things. They need laws because those things are handled by various parties who could all claim injury even in the best of times.
When the Arab states' idea of what democracy was put religion in power and the more secular amongst them realized what a mistake that was the democratic experiment ended, at least in Egypt. I don't know if you can call the barbarity taking place in Syria a democratic experiment at this point either, but some can and will argue that. I think it's more a jostling for who will be the provider. Democracy is far more complex than just filling out a ballot.
Once again, I think this is the Export Land Model in action. The people in the oil producing regions were led to believe that the best use for their oil was as an export commodity, and not as a means for them to develop their own industrial base. Without that base there is no competition for power at the level of complexity in the West. Nor is there any need to respect those who aren't associated with a developed power base. Sadly, I don't think the Arab World is going to wake from this situation in the coming year. I do think there is a lot of potential for surprises because they won't, however.