Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
Post a reply

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 16:07:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o?


Thanksgiving Day, 2005.

It's consequences on price were so horrifying that I am left...ALMOST...speechless. But a single graphic might suffice.

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 16:12:15

Twilight in the Desert is still coming. The PO Pearl Harbor will be when Gnawar collapses---and that could be any day now.

Image
Its coming

Image
The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is coming
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 16:14:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Folks expecting a heads up, a moment of truth and a big headline will be sorely disappointed. Nothing dramatic or singular will announce the end.


I'll take Matt Savinar's take on what peak oil was supposed to do, rather than your more revisionist perspective. After all, we can all now see in hindsight the horrors of lower crude prices, so much natural gas in the north eastern US that we can switch coal fired electricity over to the cheaper, cleaner and possibly more abundant fuel.

You see, it is only the revisionists who forget that peak oil was supposed to be the end. Prophets of Peak like Ruppert and Savinar told us this, so it must be true, beat cops and unemployed ambulance chasers having been accepted as experts on geology and reserves and whatnot.

All those scientists declaring it so....funny thing....you don't see them around making You Tube vidoes about it anymore...huh...

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 16:17:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')wilight in the Desert is still coming. The PO Pearl Harbor will be when Gnawar collapses---and that could be any day now.


A true as statement now as it was 15 years ago when people began saying it.

http://www.sustainablecitynews.com/ghawar-html/

The good news is, that within about 3 or 4 years in the US, we built another Ghawar in the US. With Ghawar dying 15 years ago, it was obviously just in the nick of time!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 18:26:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')wilight in the Desert is still coming. The PO Pearl Harbor will be when Gnawar collapses---and that could be any day now.

(. . . pointless image deleted. . . )

Its coming

(. . . another pointless image deleted. . . )

The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is coming

How do you know that Ghawar (corrected for spelling) has not collapsed already? And why would that signal something special? And why would Saudi Arabia bother to tell you? Have an inside position? Thought so :-x

It does not matter which oil field KSA pumps it from as long as they keep pumping and selling it. Of course their stated reserves may be total fiction but their actions are not those of someone who is down to the last barrel.
But let us look at a more reliable source. In Exxon's last annual report they stated that they had 90 billion barrels of reserves under current rules. That is about a seven year supply for the USA if Exxon was pressed to provide all our needs.
Considering that Exxon is just one player (admittedly a big one) in the worlds oil supply market I don't expect the peak oil Pearl Harbor to be any time soon.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 19:49:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')It does not matter which oil field KSA pumps it from as long as they keep pumping and selling it.


Saudi Arabia doesn't have another field that can replace the 6 million bbls/day its getting from Ghawar after Ghawar peaks and goes into rapid decline.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')Of course their stated reserves may be total fiction but their actions are not those of someone who is down to the last barrel.


Like many dictatorships, its not clear that the people at the top in Saudi Arabia are getting accurate information from the technical people down below. Who wants to be the one to give the King the bad news that oil production from Ghawar is about to go into a steep decline?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'I')n Exxon's last annual report they stated that they had 90 billion barrels of reserves under current rules. That is about a seven year supply for the USA if Exxon was pressed to provide all our needs.
Considering that Exxon is just one player (admittedly a big one) in the worlds oil supply market I don't expect the peak oil Pearl Harbor to be any time soon.


Peak Oil isn't about the size of oil reserves. Its about the production rate. Yes, its true that Exxon has 90 billion bbls in reserve and there are 70 billion bbls in the Permian tight shales in West Texas and the Canadian tar sands hold 100 billion barrels and Venezuela has 100+ billion bbls in their tar sands. What isn't clear is whether or not all the huge reserves of unconventional oil from the Permian Basin and the tar sands etc. can be produced at a high enough rate and low enough cost to replace cheap conventional oil as Ghawar and other giant conventional oil fields peak and then decline over the next 1-20 years.

Cheers!

Image
The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is predicted to happen sometime in the next 35 years---maybe next year, maybe as late as 2050+
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 20:07:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Image
The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is predicted to happen sometime in the next 35 years---maybe next year, maybe as late as 2050+

1). And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?

2). If it happens soon, it's a good thing we have a big glut and technology is making things like cars more efficient (much more over time). That will greatly help ameliorate the impact.

3). If it waits a decade or three, having a decent jump on things like the PHEV and the BEV going more mainstream, many alternatives of these to choose from, and green energy like wind and solar much more prevalent will sure help, as EV miles suddenly become MUCH more attractive when the price of oil rises meaningfully.

....

So would it be inconvenient? Sure. Would it mean "doom"? It sure doesn't seem like anything close to that. (Note: Inconvenience or even less driving is NOT doom).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 20:32:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Image
The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is predicted to happen sometime in the next 35 years---maybe next year, maybe as late as 2050+

And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?


When I look at a chart like this, I don't believe any of the predictions either.

So lets just assume every single individual prediction is wrong---some are too early and some are too late. However, if you average them altogether then you've got something that represents really a lot of work by a lot of different people mostly working independently. Taking this approach the average estimate for the timing of peak oil, based on the whole spread of estimates is about 2030 +/- 25 years.

This is the method the IPCC uses to estimate future global warming---the IPCC averages ALL GCM predections together. Its a reasonable approach to evaluating this dogs breakfast of different predictions and estimates, as long as you include the "error bars" in the averaged prediction number.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ') If it waits a decade or three, having a decent jump on things like the PHEV and the BEV going more mainstream, many alternatives of these to choose from, and green energy like wind and solar much more prevalent will sure help, as EV miles suddenly become MUCH more attractive when the price of oil rises meaningfully.

....

So would it be inconvenient? Sure. Would it mean "doom"? It sure doesn't seem like anything close to that. (Note: Inconvenience or even less driving is NOT doom).


Peak Oil and Doom are not the same thing. And Pearl Harbor, as bad as it was, was a long way from being doom ----. 8)

Cheers!
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26765
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 17 Dec 2016, 22:12:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')wilight in the Desert is still coming. The PO Pearl Harbor will be when Gnawar collapses---and that could be any day now.

(. . . pointless image deleted. . . )

Its coming

(. . . another pointless image deleted. . . )

The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is coming

How do you know that Ghawar (corrected for spelling) has not collapsed already? And why would that signal something special? And why would Saudi Arabia bother to tell you? Have an inside position? Thought so :-x

It does not matter which oil field KSA pumps it from as long as they keep pumping and selling it. Of course their stated reserves may be total fiction but their actions are not those of someone who is down to the last barrel.

And you know how? Are you an insider like PlantedAgent?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'B')ut let us look at a more reliable source. In Exxon's last annual report they stated that they had 90 billion barrels of reserves under current rules. That is about a seven year supply for the USA if Exxon was pressed to provide all our needs.
Considering that Exxon is just one player (admittedly a big one) in the worlds oil supply market I don't expect the peak oil Pearl Harbor to be any time soon.

Exxon. reliable? Then why has the CEO jumped ship to take a bureaucrats salary? Hint: job security.
Well Duh! Pstarr. Rex has worked for Exxon from right out of engineering college forty years ago.He was set to retire next year anyway. So he pulls a gig of three to six years as Secretary of State like the Eagle scout he was and is.
He doesn't need job security, and he already has enough fame and fortune.
SOC will be a hell of a pay cut for him so I am surprised he is willing to do it at all.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Dec 2016, 00:34:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Image
The Peak Oil Pearl Harbor is predicted to happen sometime in the next 35 years---maybe next year, maybe as late as 2050+

1). And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?


Boy isn't that the truth. Under the sine wave theory of oil production rates, we need to focus on the total number of peaks and the frequency of them, in that scheme, our kids could be talking about the same things.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')2). If it happens soon, it's a good thing we have a big glut and technology is making things like cars more efficient (much more over time). That will greatly help ameliorate the impact.


We are still in the impact from the 2005 peak oil, according to some. And consumers are loving it! And they are't buying more efficient cars, if truck and SUV sales are the measure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')3). If it waits a decade or three, having a decent jump on things like the PHEV and the BEV going more mainstream, many alternatives of these to choose from, and green energy like wind and solar much more prevalent will sure help, as EV miles suddenly become MUCH more attractive when the price of oil rises meaningfully.


EV miles are much more attractive now. When the wife can commute to work for 6 months without using more than a couple gallons of gasoline, our family notices it in our monthly budget already.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 18 Dec 2016, 01:23:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')1). And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?

2). If it happens soon, it's a good thing we have a big glut and technology is making things like cars more efficient (much more over time). That will greatly help ameliorate the impact.

3). If it waits a decade or three, having a decent jump on things like the PHEV and the BEV going more mainstream, many alternatives of these to choose from, and green energy like wind and solar much more prevalent will sure help, as EV miles suddenly become MUCH more attractive when the price of oil rises meaningfully.

....

So would it be inconvenient? Sure. Would it mean "doom"? It sure doesn't seem like anything close to that. (Note: Inconvenience or even less driving is NOT doom).


In a global capitalist system, efficiency leads to more consumption rather than less. That's because businesses invest in technology because it will earn them more money, which means they need to sell goods at lower cost. But they are also in competition with each other, which means they want to generate more sales.

Also, the same system involves more than just driving and related activities.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 18 Dec 2016, 02:06:38

ralfy - "...which means they need to sell goods at lower cost. But they are also in competition with each other, which means they want to generate more sales." Which leads me to repeat what I've posted else that relates to why lower oil prices have lead to an increase in global production:

"Some folks keep talking about "poor" ole OPEC is these days. But the data is clear and simple: from the day OPEC produced its first bbl of oil until 2007 it has never received as much revenue (adjusted for inflation, of course) as it is pulling in today."

The KSA increase in production had nothing to do with shutting down the US shale players. It was a response to lower oil prices and the need for more revenue.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby Zarquon » Sun 18 Dec 2016, 17:26:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'Y')ou've seen J6P respond to energy shock events in the past. You ever been impressed? LOL. And then once the shock had past seen him continuing to focus on the problem? Doubly unimpressed, eh? LOL. Many of our problems are rooted in human nature. Figure out how to geneticly modify it and we might have a chance.

But I do like the Pear Harbor anology much more the "collapse", "Armageddon ", etc. Much easier to visualize those dynamics at play.


Maybe it's just splitting hairs, but to the Japanese the US oil embargo in August '41 was the actual declaration of war.

Anyway, after '73 Joe Sixpack suddenly bought Hondas. Rice bowls! Unbelievable!

And even before that, in the 1960s, the first independent self-service gas stations popped up in the US. Of course no full-blooded American would ever leave his car and touch the greasy pump himself, just to save a few lousy pennies, when a uniformed negro could do it for him. Except that they did, and in masses. The horror! The independent chains boomed (well, at least until the "scarcity" in the 70s allowed Big Oil to withhold gasoline suppplies and ruin them).

Whatever the reason, things changed and J6P adapted (until a senile B-movie actor Made America Great Again etc. etc.). But maybe it was possible because in the 60s and 70s, people remembered worse days and didn't take prosperity for granted.
Zarquon
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 321
Joined: Fri 06 May 2016, 20:53:46
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby Zarquon » Sun 18 Dec 2016, 17:31:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') Well Duh! Pstarr. Rex has worked for Exxon from right out of engineering college forty years ago.He was set to retire next year anyway. So he pulls a gig of three to six years as Secretary of State like the Eagle scout he was and is.


Or maybe he'll do pretty much the same job he did before, just from behind a different desk. Cutting out the middle man makes things so much simpler.
Zarquon
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 321
Joined: Fri 06 May 2016, 20:53:46
Top

Re: So when is the PO Pearl Harbor?

Unread postby Zarquon » Sun 18 Dec 2016, 17:42:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')1). And why should we believe the current forecast more than past ones?


If I played Russian Roulette and the gun went "click" three times already... I might start thinking. And remember that the gun is loaded.
Zarquon
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 321
Joined: Fri 06 May 2016, 20:53:46
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron