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When do you think the economy will crash?

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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 08:47:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'P')ops, high oil prices will never signal the arrival of peak oil. On the contrary, low prices have proven it is here.

OK

I think that the right way to think of it is that high oil prices DID signal the arrival of peak oil. Some people just never acknowledged it. Oil prices shot up and fatally damaged the economy. Now civilization is starting to collapse. That is just
classic peak oil theory. There is no reason to over complicate things. Here is an oil price chart showing the main features of the peak oil dynamic so far:

Image
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 09:08:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '.')..

I wrote a page but the effort invested is less than it's value to the economy.

My belief is long term oil production will fall and prices will rise unless mitigation is rapid.

YMMV
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 09:14:14

Very interesting. I like that graph. Very obvious if you look at it. Here we go...
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 09:21:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'V')ery interesting. I like that graph. Very obvious if you look at it. Here we go...

Thanks, Revi. It seems super obvious to me. I think it takes a great deal of effort to deny something this obvious.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 09:27:33

I see nothing obvious about the graph at all. Low oil prices might be reflective of something if we were in a recession and demand destruction was going on. But we aren't in a recession. We happen to have an over-supply of oil right now.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 09:56:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I') see nothing obvious about the graph at all. Low oil prices might be reflective of something if we were in a recession and demand destruction was going on. But we aren't in a recession.

The world seems to be:

Image

That explains the lack of demand. I guess low oil prices are reflective of something after all.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 10:06:25

We didn't have a total collapse in 2007 and we aren't having one now. Now if you ask me whether we will have another recession, then of course we will. We have one every ten years on average. But the premise is a crash or collapse. Not happening. There are no economic indicators showing we are in recession in the USA and the price of oil has zip to do with it anyway.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 10:18:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'W')e didn't have a total collapse in 2007 and we aren't having one now. Now if you ask me whether we will have another recession, then of course we will. We have one every ten years on average. But the premise is a crash or collapse. Not happening. There are no economic indicators showing we are in recession in the USA and the price of oil has zip to do with it anyway.

Like I said before, it takes a great deal of effort to deny something this obvious.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby GHung » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 10:42:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'W')e didn't have a total collapse in 2007 and we aren't having one now. Now if you ask me whether we will have another recession, then of course we will. We have one every ten years on average. But the premise is a crash or collapse. Not happening. There are no economic indicators showing we are in recession in the USA and the price of oil has zip to do with it anyway.

Like I said before, it takes a great deal of effort to deny something this obvious.


Seems a little slight-of-hand worked well. The Cogs of our country didn't even notice that the crash was socialised into the future by moving it to central banks' balance sheets and the national debt via ZIRP, NIRP, and QE+++.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 10:50:17

The economy will crash even worse than it has already, and it will probably be on Trump's watch. It won't be his fault, but he will be left holding the bag. It was a miracle that it held up so long anyway. That's my prediction.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Cog » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 11:24:36

Do you know how many "the crash is right around the corner" threads I have read in eight years of being here?
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby GHung » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 11:26:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'D')o you know how many "the crash is right around the corner" threads I have read in eight years of being here?


Do you know what share of the national debt, to hold that crash at bay, is yours? Your children's?
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 11:32:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'D')o you know how many "the crash is right around the corner" threads I have read in eight years of being here?


I hope you are right. I really do.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 11:47:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', 'I') think that the right way to think of it is that high oil prices DID signal the arrival of peak oil. Some people just never acknowledged it. Oil prices shot up and fatally damaged the economy. Now civilization is starting to collapse.

I can go with that up to a point. I said the same way back.
But here is consumption, still obviously not declining

Image


Here was my last guess:

Image


That was before protectionism, global trade war, the breakdown of relative peace, etc
We're on to something different now
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 11:50:26

It's been a very interesting ride, this peak oil thing. It keeps getting more and more nuanced and we'll see what happens next...
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 11:56:38

no doubt Revi, you'll remember our old buddy Aaron who said:
"Don't fear PO, fear the reaction"
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 15 Nov 2016, 13:01:52

I think the market will crash when it actually does, and then I will say
that I saw it coming, and I will be right as hell. Having been right as
hell several times in my life, I know it is unpopular being right about
predicting a bad event, and so I have decided to keep to myself
when it finally takes place. I will instead post informative things,
like DIY jelly donuts, Jamaican jerk squirrel recipe, and an endless
string of killer jokes to tell in the bread lines. I will still carry my
serviceless smartphone and keep it charged and I will hold it up to my head
and talk and pretend to text and browse because even in hard
times I will strive to be cool. I just hope that somehow the
Facebook data remains intact and we can get back on when
things start to improve, it will be inspiring to see what we used
to eat for lunch, and what we used to buy when we were bored
and to wonder who we made jealous, and how much weight we
all used to carry around.
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