[LadyRuby]

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that we won't see anyone taking our oil situation seriously until we start seeing shortages and gas lines. Then, things could start to really change, but not until then. Anyone hazard a guess as to when that might start happening?

[MD]

Hard to say for sure. Inventories are decent right now. It would likely take a major refinery disruption to cause regional shortages.

[RonMN]

everything is pointing to 4th quarter of this year...while it wont be "peak" it does look like demand will exceed supply.

[aahala]

The lines won't be at the gas station. They'll be at the withdraw window
of drivethru banks.

[BrownDog]

I've heard a lot of comments from friends/relatives about how much it takes to fill up the tank, but nobody seems to be clued into the implications of why. My guess is that they think it will be like '73, temporary.

It might, indeed, take lines at the station to get people to thinking about it.

[LadyRuby]

So why would this time be different than the 70s, without shortages?

[RonMN]

Because this will be PERMANANT

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'B')ecause this will be PERMANANT

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'B')ecause this will be PERMANANT

[aahala]

You could have some lines and shortages, but that will not be the norm,
assuming no government rationing or price limits.

The price will rise till near the point all available for sale will be sold at
the highest price possible.

Put simply, if you could sell all you have at $4 or $6 or $20, which price
would you sell it for?

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I')'m becoming increasingly convinced that we won't see anyone taking our oil situation seriously until we start seeing shortages and gas lines.
.........

[thor]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'S')o when PO hits and gas is $10 per gallon you will not have to worry about waiting in line for gas. Or if there is a line it will be a very short line.

[LadyRuby]

Okay, not to belabor this, but why were there lines and shortages in the 70s? Just curious, I guess, and frankly I'm hoping for lines and shortages to shake the world up a little and get moving on things...

[halfin]

In the 1970s there were government limits on gas prices. That's why there were lines. You'd have people lining up around the block for $1.25 gasoline. Why wouldn't they increase the price to $1.50 or $2.00 and eliminate the lines while making more money? Because it was illegal.

I remember those days. I was in high school. When the car got low, I or my brother would head out before breakfast to try to get gas. We'd hope to beat the crowd by getting there early. Then we'd wait in line for an hour or so until we got to the front and were able to get gas.

It was so inconvenient, it would have been a lot better to pay an extra couple of bucks. But our friendly government was "protecting" us back then from the scourge of high prices.

Hopefully we won't make the same mistake next time there's an oil shock. There are better ways to ration out a scarce resource than putting on price controls and making people wait in line. Remember the stories from Russia about people waiting in line for hours when the supermarket got a new shipment of food? It's the same problem, disrespect for the price system. And it always leads to trouble.

[aahala]

Lady

The rationing schemes by the states or by the gas stations themselves made matters worse.

Not every area of the country had that and those areas
didn't have nearly the shortages or the lines as elsewhere. I never remember either in my area.

For example, some areas had a low gas limit for visit. If before you were
making one visit per 15 gallons of useage, you may have had to make
three visits and so forth, leading to a lot of lines. It also led to tank topping,
which increased the likelihood some station would run out, drivers saw
the out of gas and the lines, which encouraged them to join the queue.
It was a self fullfilling prophesy--gas is really short, so I'll buy more,
making it shorter.

There was also the fact that the domestic production price limit, from
the first oil embargo was still in effect during the second. Domestic
producers weren't overly eager to pump more, and saw it as a political
opportunity to remove the price limit, which happened, but only after
a period of time of gas lines.

[FlyAgaric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'L')ady

The rationing schemes by the states or by the gas stations themselves made matters worse.

Not every area of the country had that and those areas
didn't have nearly the shortages or the lines as elsewhere. I never remember either in my area.

For example, some areas had a low gas limit for visit. If before you were
making one visit per 15 gallons of useage, you may have had to make
three visits and so forth, leading to a lot of lines. It also led to tank topping,
which increased the likelihood some station would run out, drivers saw
the out of gas and the lines, which encouraged them to join the queue.
It was a self fullfilling prophesy--gas is really short, so I'll buy more,
making it shorter.

There was also the fact that the domestic production price limit, from
the first oil embargo was still in effect during the second. Domestic
producers weren't overly eager to pump more, and saw it as a political
opportunity to remove the price limit, which happened, but only after
a period of time of gas lines.

[LadyRuby]

Okay, thanks all, now I understand. I'd still prefer to see gas lines just to make it crystal clear that we have a problem... but I guess people will still get the point.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FlyAgaric', '.')........
Make no mistake. There was a supply disruction during the embargo and again when Iran stopped supplying oil in 1979.
...............

[FlyAgaric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FlyAgaric', '.')........
Make no mistake. There was a supply disruction during the embargo and again when Iran stopped supplying oil in 1979.
...............