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New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 15 Sep 2016, 00:00:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Am I the only one who understand this?
Image


You are the only one who DOESN'T understand it apparently. It fails for the same reason that all discovery charts have to date, and you aren't even informed enough to know why. As proven by posting a chart that DOESN'T explain where the "new" oil comes from.

Go back to getting a buzz on while enjoying the view of some clear cutting forestry work being done. Or to sleep, there really is no difference in your case.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby joelund » Thu 15 Sep 2016, 15:32:02

That's why it's so f*cking important even if you don't understand it. LOL.

Go getem Rockman! All this talk around the edges. You could hang a sign, "Oil well", on the pump jack and most would still not recognize it. I am sure you have seen as many downturns/upturns as I have. Folks the reserves do not disappear because some companies could not finance their asset build; new management and new ownership and the existing wells keep producing. The Rockman is correct, huge transfer of wealth going on.

One thing that does change is the Haynes and Boone head count. The bankruptcy practice in Houston, Dallas, and Denver is doing well right now.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 15 Sep 2016, 16:25:46

Joe - "...huge transfer of wealth going on." And it's damn frustrating right now. The Rockman feels like he just stumbled into an orgy and forgot his Viagra at home. LOL. Got $40 million as a placeholder in the budget and haven't found one property to bid on all year.

And some may wonder why. The Rockman's company isn't interested in buying producing wells just for the sake of producing oil. We need properties with upside drilling potential so we can spend that other $200 million in cash we have on hand. There's just so much heavily indebted crappy prospects out there. Prospects that didn't have much upside when oil was $100+/bbl. And no: we won't use expectations of higher oil prices down the road. If that's how the company wanted to try to make money they could try it in the futures market. Then they could run the Rockman and his equally overpaid cohorts off. LOL.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby SumYunGai » Thu 15 Sep 2016, 17:51:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Am I the only one who understand this?
Image


You are the only one who DOESN'T understand it apparently. It fails for the same reason that all discovery charts have to date, and you aren't even informed enough to know why. As proven by posting a chart that DOESN'T explain where the "new" oil comes from.

Go back to getting a buzz on while enjoying the view of some clear cutting forestry work being done. Or to sleep, there really is no difference in your case.

What do you think of this chart, then?:

Image

Does this trend look good to you?

With discoveries this low, where are new reserves supposed to come from?
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 15 Sep 2016, 20:30:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')What do you think of this chart, then?:

Image

Does this trend look good to you?


If I define all the conventional oil as the easy oil, back when everything reached with a rotary drilling rig was unconventional, I can make one that looks even worse. Just as the hill group was forced to exclude data and cherry pick time frames to get their spurious relationship to work, and send out ignorant salesmen to pimp the report, this one needs to ignore certain types of oil as well.

You should know that this particular graphic, or a version of it, has been used to hide where most "new" oil was coming from since before the last peak oil scare. The geoscientists talk about it and study it, peak oiler amateurs design graphs to hide it. Don't take my word for it; first sentence in summary and conclusions. The document is near 20 years old now. Amateurs like whats his name, and 10 years ago in the peak oil crowd, can't even be bothered to learn this stuff.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-202-96/FS-202-96.html
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby SumYunGai » Thu 15 Sep 2016, 21:01:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '
')What do you think of this chart, then?:

Image

Does this trend look good to you?


If I define all the conventional oil as the easy oil, back when everything reached with a rotary drilling rig was unconventional, I can make one that looks even worse. Just as the hill group was forced to exclude data and cherry pick time frames to get their spurious relationship to work, and send out ignorant salesmen to pimp the report, this one needs to ignore certain types of oil as well.

You should know that this particular graphic, or a version of it, has been used to hide where most "new" oil was coming from since before the last peak oil scare. The geoscientists talk about it and study it, peak oiler amateurs design graphs to hide it. Don't take my word for it; first sentence in summary and conclusions. The document is near 20 years old now. Amateurs like whats his name, and 10 years ago in the peak oil crowd, can't even be bothered to learn this stuff.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-202-96/FS-202-96.html

But the rate of reserve growth increase is also declining.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volum ... rease.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Regional reserves growth shows decline in annual rate of increase

Results analysis

Future reserve growth modeling will incorporate specific factors such as geological conditions and recovery technologies. As reserve growth models become more refined by regions representing different growth rates, the average rate of reserve growth will continue to decrease.

In addition, the rate of decrease will be more obvious for natural gas, suggesting reserve growth is lower for regions outside the US. Reserve volumes and the rate of increase in recent years may not provide the same stable growth as in earlier years.

Image

With new discoveries almost non existent, reserves are just being drained that much faster. Running on reserve growth is like running on fumes. Face it, the oil industry is going out of business.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 15 Sep 2016, 22:04:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith new discoveries almost non existent, reserves are just being drained that much faster. Running on reserve growth is like running on fumes. Face it, the oil industry is going out of business.


Very misleading. The reserves that BP updates each year are proven and as shown have grown year on year at least through 2013. Proven reserves often make up a small part of currently recoverable reserves (probable and possible) and with changing economics contingent resources become first 3P then 2P and finally proven reserves. It can take many years for that transition to occur. Then add to that the effect of advancing technology. Considering heavy oil in place in Alberta and Venezuela I believe the current thought on recovery factor is less than 10%, what if new technology jumped that to 30% which would put it on track with the poorer conventional fields? The same can be said for the shale plays, current recovery is very low but new technologies could easily jump that total recovery up to at least double what it is currently. And it isn't like these technologies aren't being worked on. As an example of how important recovery factor is it wasn't that many years ago when Aramco was only expecting about 30 - 4-% recovery out of the various Ghawar fields. That number has now been lifted to somewhere between 60 - 70% based on the application of technologies over the past decade. Without looking at the total resource number sitting there (which is basically impossible to do with even the best industry data) you cannot say what is actually left to grow proven reserves.

Yes it is a limited resource, no one here has argued it isn't. But suggesting oil companies are going out of business this minute is just plain silly. As I pointed out previously many have replaced their production several times over in the past few years. \
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 15 Sep 2016, 23:31:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, in the real world, the last deposits of worn-out oxidized hydrocarbons are beyond reach. The tar sands were last big thing. Sad. Green River oil shale (not to be confused with tight-shale oil) and Orinoco superheavy will never be produced. Those trillion-barrel asphalt pits were still dirt at $40 dollars, will remain dirt at $60 dollars. I can assure the newbies and deniers alike they will never be produced at $100 . . . because that price-point is now just a fleeting and imaginary bit of ancient history.

Argument from false authority and Appeal by pigheadedness. The exact same comments have been made in the past and proved wrong. I had a thesis advisor who relayed the story of when he was a student back in the fifties his professor claiming he would drink every drop of oil that was ever produced out of Manitoba, yet in 2012 Manitoba produced 18.5 MMbbls. When I first started in the industry everyone was extremely skeptical about the oil sands, I was there when the first barrel was sold and there was still a group that claimed it was an anomaly. Yet in 2014 production from the oil sands reached 2.3 MMbbls per day. Many claimed there would never be production from water depths beyond 60 metres, and then it was there would never be any production beyond 100 metres, and then 500 metres, a thousand metres etc. All of those hurdles were met and passed. And Orinoco extra heavy oil? Lets see Venezuela was producing 600,000 bopd from the Faja before the price drop….hardly seems like nothing does it? That of course didn't stop you assuring newbies there would never be any production from those fields.

You have no history in the oil industry and certainly no apparent knowledge yet you feel perfectly fine in making bold sweeping statements that have no basis in fact and are usually contradicted by data readily available to anyone. You remind me of the crazies we used to always see in Hyde Park corner who would get up and rant about subjects they knew nothing about but it didn’t stop them from having strong opinions that they were convinced were correct regardless of all the evidence to the contrary.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 16 Sep 2016, 00:40:50

The Oil Industry is going out of business because it has a water and cheap heat and electricity problem that can only be solved by cogeneration of electricity/process heat from very high temperature small nuclear reactors. Its the same thing required for processing tar goop and and generating synthetic liquid fuels from biomass and building local refineries to process drabs of coal.

All the price of oil and low EROEI problems would then disappear.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 16 Sep 2016, 11:37:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') said nothing about extra heavy oil. Rock, do you have a reading comprehension issue?


here is exactly what you said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he tar sands were last big thing. Sad. Green River oil shale (not to be confused with tight-shale oil) and Orinoco superheavy will never be produced.


I certainly don't have a reading comprehension issue but you obviously have a writing comprehension issue. :roll:
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 16 Sep 2016, 12:33:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') said nothing about extra heavy oil. Rock, do you have a reading comprehension issue?


here is exactly what you said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he tar sands were last big thing. Sad. Green River oil shale (not to be confused with tight-shale oil) and Orinoco superheavy will never be produced.


I certainly don't have a reading comprehension issue but you obviously have a writing comprehension issue. :roll:



This exchange is eerily similar to one from a while back.

He starts out making a sweeping universal statement "the world is in recession because of demand-dearth. Nobody can afford oil even at current prices!"

Then we trot out all the data showing demand growing and especially strong economic numbers out of the US.

Then he says "I'm not talking about the US!"

Well, of course he was, because he was making a sweeping statement about the whole world. The US is a huge part of global GDP. So he has to keep narrowing down and qualifying his original hyperbolic statement while simultaneously denying that he ever meant anything quite so broad. We're, I guess, supposed to just know that there are imaginary asterisks next to them.

Doomers are notorious for making these sorts of sweeping statements. StarvingLion is sort of the last stop along that train, where everything's a ponzi scheme, period. End of discussion. Do not pass go. There's really nowhere to take an argument with someone who sees the world in such childlike simplicity. There's no dialogue, only dueling monologues.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 16 Sep 2016, 14:25:06

Oh, and btw, hot of the presses.

http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hu ... picks=true

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The oil-rig count has climbed in 11 out of the last 12 weeks, the longest streak since early 2014, before the oil crash.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 16 Sep 2016, 20:47:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's thicker and heavier. Jeez. Come on guy. Really? (snort). ennui, shut up. You don't know what you are talking about lol


you truly are an idiot. Why do you even bother posting this and drawing attention to your lack of knowledge in the subject. The terms super heavy and extra heavy are used interchangeably to denote heavy oil that has a gravity of <10 API and viscosity anywhere above 100 cp and up to 10,000 cp.

I suspect you would be better off just walking away from the keyboard rather than digging yourself deeper into the hole of stupidity.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Sep 2016, 18:12:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')You have no history in the oil industry and certainly no apparent knowledge yet you feel perfectly fine in making bold sweeping statements that have no basis in fact and are usually contradicted by data readily available to anyone. You remind me of the crazies we used to always see in Hyde Park corner who would get up and rant about subjects they knew nothing about but it didn’t stop them from having strong opinions that they were convinced were correct regardless of all the evidence to the contrary.


You've been here for a decade and are just figuring this out NOW?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 Sep 2016, 18:22:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-202-96/FS-202-96.html

But the rate of reserve growth increase is also declining.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volum ... rease.html



You didn't even see the numbers discussed in your reference did you? LARGER than the USGS estimates of same..and you want to pretend this means LESS?

Why how interesting, you must be the salesman pimping the Etp, he wouldn''t have known that a past estimate in the 500 billion barrel range, was smaller than what is claimed in your reference, in the 600 billion barrel range.

Tell me where you live, and I'll find a remedial math class at the local community college, and we'll get you schooled up and winning math-lete challenges with 2nd graders in no time!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sat 17 Sep 2016, 19:38:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SumYunGai', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-202-96/FS-202-96.html

But the rate of reserve growth increase is also declining.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volum ... rease.html



You didn't even see the numbers discussed in your reference did you? LARGER than the USGS estimates of same..and you want to pretend this means LESS?

Why how interesting, you must be the salesman pimping the Etp, he wouldn''t have known that a past estimate in the 500 billion barrel range, was smaller than what is claimed in your reference, in the 600 billion barrel range.

Tell me where you live, and I'll find a remedial math class at the local community college, and we'll get you schooled up and winning math-lete challenges with 2nd graders in no time!

Ouch. Your own link from the USGS states the following:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Summary and Conclusions

Reserve growth is a major component--perhaps THE major component--of remaining United States natural-gas resources. Historical data (figs. 1, 2) support this premise, as do estimates of technically recoverable and of economically recoverable gas resources remaining in the United States (figs. 3, 4).

Yet, as Attanasi and Root (1994) emphasized when they referred to "the enigma of oil and gas field growth," reserve growth is poorly understood. Projections of future reserve growth in the United States carry large uncertainty. Much work remains to be done on the phenomenon of reserve growth, which is arguably the most significant research problem in the field of hydrocarbon resource assessment.

My link was to an academic article in Oil and Gas Journal that showed that the rate of reserve growth increase was declining:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')size=120]Regional reserves growth shows decline in annual rate of increase[/size]

Results analysis

Future reserve growth modeling will incorporate specific factors such as geological conditions and recovery technologies. As reserve growth models become more refined by regions representing different growth rates, the average rate of reserve growth will continue to decrease.

In addition, the rate of decrease will be more obvious for natural gas, suggesting reserve growth is lower for regions outside the US. Reserve volumes and the rate of increase in recent years may not provide the same stable growth as in earlier years.
So the latest research shows that the rate of reserve growth increase is declining, as I said before. I don't think you really responded to this.
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