[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HARM', '9') years ago, as the aftermath of the global housing/credit bubble and oil bubble collapse played out, I would never have believed that in 2006 house prices would have equaled --much less surpassed-- their 2007 peaks. I would also have never believed that oil production would have exceeded the late 2000's peak, or that fracking would drive U.S. oil production to a second peak (something Hubbert could not have foreseen), or that we would be experiencing an oil glut with prices ~$35/BBL.

[ROCKMAN]

I guess my main question is: what f*cking Status Quo? LOL. Maybe I missed it but what aspects of our society have been little changed over just the last 15 years?

[GHung]

"Peakers underestimate TPTB at maintaining the Status Quo"

Nice job of painting with a broad brush, Harm. "Peakers".... maybe you can define what that is. Is it those solely focused on peak oil? Peak everything? Peak ability to bullshit ourselves before circumstances dictate otherwise? Or maybe it's a reference to those of us who acknowledge that we're reaching the limits of our ability to maintain the "status quo", as you say. A strong argument could be made that that peak has been reached. Trump/Clinton? Really?

Funny how we argue over time-frames and metrics while ignoring the ongoing process of maxing out our ability to exploit just about everything planetary. Perhaps a peak ability to step outside our lives and observe just where we are. Too busy affecting the experiment it seems.

Harm goes on; "Yes, physical limits to growth will inevitably eventually impose themselves ...."

Eventually? Seems he's ignoring a lot of things.

[Hawkcreek]

We all look at things from the viewpoint of our own lifetimes. 20 or 30 years may be a big chunk of that to see only a few changes.
But---
If you look at history, big changes and collapse are the norm.
So I guess that if you really think the norm won't have any chance to bite you in the ass, go for it (ignoring history).
We all have different coping methods.

[Peak_Yeast]

That things happen slowly in a world wide system should be no surprise.
That wealth and consumption is unevenly distributed should be no surprise.
That the effects of rot and decay will be equally unevenly distributed is obvious.

It is a common fallacy to see slow changes as no changes or to wave away changes that happens in other locations than oneself which is why we are in our situation in the first place.

Shortsightedness and narrowmindedness is the driver of this attitude and our predicament and has been for centuries. It is not going to change.

[KaiserJeep]

I believe that conventional oil peaked in 2008, and we've been making up the difference through unconventional sources.

I also believe that we have been in "slow crash", aka The Long Emergency, even longer that that.

Peak Oil is not an event, or even a turning point. We have had 60 years of relative prosperity, now it's the beginning of at least that long a period of gradually worsening conditions - and then the age of oil ends.

TPTB are not conspiring to do anything, they fight each other all the time. It's all momentum - and there is one heck of a lot of momentum.

[Hawkcreek]

Damn KJ. I agree with almost everything you just wrote.
The last item, though, not so much. I think TPTB are always trying to find a way to make others pay for their sins. Plotting and scheming sons of beeches.

[GHung]

Conspiracy or culture of greed; doesn't matter much. They're like a bunch of frat boys pushing their daddy's Cadillac as it's running out of gas, trying to maintain the momentum.

Today's biggest 'successes' are totally reliant on industrial age inertia, allowing those so inclined to squeeze just a bit more from what's left of globalism. They employ all sorts of spin doctors, marketeers, and consent manufacturers to blur what passes for disposable capital, minimise the importance of indebtedness, and obscure what matters. That's how we get a candidate for President that considers serial bankruptcies to be BAU. If he can do it, anybody can, eh?

Again, it doesn't matter much because, whether by culture or design, it results in maximising consumption rates; only speeds up the end-game for the consumer-based global economy as we know it. How much inertia is left in that system is incalculable, but I'm thinking it's a lot less than most folks think or hope, if they are paying attention at all.

[HARM]

Oops, yes I meant housing prices have surpassed the previous 2007 peak in 2016, not 2006.

[HARM]

@Ghung, etc.

Ok, then let's call them "fast-crashers". I am obviously not a fast-crasher, nor do I buy the assertion that the global economy has already crashed or is in a state OBVIOUS decline yet. "Obvious" being the key word here. Yes, you can argue that the refugee crisis/Arab Spring and pushing-on-a-string policies like ZIRP/NIRP/QE are all signs of a slow-moving catabolic collapse. It's *arguable* but still not proven. Also, even assuming you believe that to be true, it's still not obvious to 99.9% of humanity, for most of whom life is still going on much as it has last year, and the decade before that.

However, I *am* a "fast-crasher" when it comes to the environment/biosphere. We are seeing unmistakable evidence of a mass anthropogenic die-off at rates not seen since the last major asteroid strike. Unfortunately, almost no one cares, because it does not immediately and personally affect most people and their standard of living --yet. Human beings are too innately myopic, selfish, ignorant, irrational, greedy and intellectually lazy to connect the dots between their own consumption and numbers and pollution/die-off/depletion.

So... yes, we're doomed, but no, I doubt that total collapse will be obvious to most people until I am very old or dead. Clearly the global financial system and oligarchy has proven to be far more resilient and adaptable than I realized.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')Nice job of painting with a broad brush, Harm. "Peakers".... maybe you can define what that is.

[GHung]

ennui said; "I'd say someone who strikes a pissy and overly defensive tone like yours is by definition a peaker."

By what definition, oh pissy one? Yours? Lets have it. Anyone who asks for clarification of WTF someone's talking about?

...and "Like what, gas hovering around $2 a gallon?"

So you think the current price of fuel means what?

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '
')So you think the current price of fuel means what?

[ralfy]

Given limits to growth and the fact that collapse will take place, then the problem isn't underestimating TPTB but the opposite.

[StarvingLion]

The fake people on this hapless thread obviously believe 10% decline rates (guaranteed by 2030) in conventional oil are not going to be *instantly* lethal and that wind and solar can power lithium battery vehicles in the supply chain of the USA. Not a single one you even understands the weather patterns of the USA.

And The Sockman and ennui2 believe nothing much will change until Dec 30, 2029.

In other words, illiterate bullshit artists reign supreme.

Honestly, I don't think any of you will be around come 2030.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n') other words, illiterate bullshit artists reign supreme.

[ROCKMAN]

HARM - "Human beings are too innately myopic, selfish, ignorant, irrational, greedy and intellectually lazy to connect the dots..." A point I've made many times as to why obvious and necessary actions are not being taken. But I would disagree with the inability to "connect the dots" or more to the point: acknowledge the existence of those connected dots. You even make a case for it: "...almost no one cares, because it does not immediately and personally affect most people and their standard of living...".

IOW it's as simple as it has always been: self interest dominates the actions of society. Any problems in the future are just that...in the future. And the problems facing other people today are just that...the problems of those other people. This is one reason I don't tend to point a finger at "TPTB" as the root of our problems. They might try to game the various situations but they aren't the cause. As you point out: for the most part humanity is the perpetrator. If all "TPTB" woke up tomorrow and attempted to seriously modify the PO path we're on the public would destroy them by whatever means available to them. Folks like to mock that statement that "our lifestyle is not negotiable". But in the view of the vast majority neither their current lifestyle nor the one they are trying to reach is negotiable.

Which I'll use my favorite propaganda these days to illustrate: how Texas became one of the world's leading alt energy producers with our wind power. It happened for exactly that reason: our lifestyle, which is very dependent on electrical generation, IS NOT NEGOTIABLE. LOL. Texans DID NOT back the effort to "save the earth". If we gave a sh*t about climate change we wouldn't be the largest coal burning state by a very wide margin. We haven't replaced one Btu of coal power with one Btu of wind power. Our wind growth was done BECAUSE our lifestyle IS NOT NEGOTIABLE. That's why the voters didn't object to spending $7 BILLION of THEIR TAX DOLLARS to expand our grid. It was done for purely selfish reasons.

And that's how we became tied as the 4th largest wind power producing "country" in the world. Compare that to all the meager and often failed efforts based solely on "humanitarian" appeal.

Asking mankind to abandon their lifestyles (or the desire to improve them) for the sake of others today (let alone for future generations) has accomplished very little to date. In reality, despite many years of warnings and pleas, CO2 levels continue to increase. And the primary DIRECT generators of the vast majority of GHG remain the fossil fuel CONSUMERS. IOW all those BILLIONS of Mother Earth's citizens who still consider their lifestyles nonnegotiable.

[Newfie]

Nice little bit of writing there Rocman.

[regardingpo]

One day, what is "non negotiable" will become impossible. That's good news, for those who like bad news.

I don't think anyone knows when exactly that day will come, but since there are a bunch of people trying to guess (2020, 2030, 2050 etc.) someone will get it right and then they will say "I told you so" and pretend they're very smart, whereas in reality they just got lucky with their guess.

[Tanada]

I have posted for years around here that BAU will continue so long as TPTB can hold onto it no matter the cost. It will continue until it absolutely can not be maintained, and only then will a real paradigm shift occur.

We have already grossly stretched what BAU means for Joe6P, I am not talking about that aspect. I am referring to the powerful elites who have power and wealth because of the system as currently designed. Changing their BAU means losing that wealth/power/control and they will fight that to the bitter end.