by AdamB » Wed 31 Aug 2016, 00:57:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'O')il depletion will be validated.
Oil depletion was validated after Drake filled his 1st bathtub with oil and kicked off the beginning of the "running out" (now peak oil when oil, obviously, wouldn't run out) debate.
Perhaps I do not understand what you mean by "validating depletion"? The very act of removing the first barrel was itself depletion, the first barrel of it. We had more than a trillion more barrels of additional depletion since that time, and look to hit multiple trillions before we really get through the ongoing transition in our transport choices.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '
') The simplicity of Hubbert's perfectly smooth and symmetrical bell-curve as applied to global scale won't be.
Few people here understand the devil's in the details.
Few people care about the details. Why should they, a majority aren't looking for an objective analysis of the topic, if they were these threads would be filled with tales of conversations with EIA and IEA and BOEM and USGS scientists, research people inside DOE in the fossil fuels research divisions, we would talk about what our calls to RyStadt and CERA and IHS revealed. Go back through the archives and it is stunning, what passed for a reference back then. Nowadays? Crickets.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Wed 31 Aug 2016, 00:59:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'M')ost people worldwide earn less than ten dollars a day and lack one or more basic needs, including education, health care, and shelter. That means for most of the world population the sky fell some time ago.
Not if they once made less, and worked themselves up to a decent raise to get to that 10 dollars a day.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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by AdamB » Wed 31 Aug 2016, 01:05:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')As long as most people fail misunderstand what science is about, there will be little chance for human progress.
I tend to agree.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Or to avoid the oncoming tragedy of peak oil. Some people need to stop lecturing and listen and read.
Oncoming tragedy? Onlooker says it happened a decade ago, him and some unnamed "experts" anyway. You are looking at peak oil a decade in already...$1.95/gal here, pickup sales are up, natural gas is so cheap they are retiring coal plants to use the new cheap fuel, I mean peak oil in onlookers world is:
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by ennui2 » Wed 31 Aug 2016, 01:42:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'H')ubbert did not make such a prediction.
That's like saying Islam is the religion of peace.
We know what the tenets of the peak-oil movement were back then and there was no talk about "undulating plateaus" and what not until the chart-watchers realized that things weren't all smooth and symmetrical after all.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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by peripato » Wed 31 Aug 2016, 02:05:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou two are twins of misdirection. I say one thing, and Adam responds with something onlooker said who-knows-when? Rockman makes a simple obvious correction (Hubbert's long tail) and you ennui go off on world religions?
This is like debating a bad AI program. All nonsense with a fancy dictionary.
Indeed. It's the epitome of trolling...
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by Plantagenet » Wed 31 Aug 2016, 12:46:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Peak oil isn't a religion? Well...opinions vary.
For heaven's sake. Why are you wasting everyone's time with this drivel?
Opinions vary on everything. Nonetheless, it is obvious to anyone with a brain that the peak oil theory is a scientific hypothesis promulgated by a Ph.D. scientist in a series of monographs and refereed scientific publications.
Yes, you can find various examples on the internet of people saying peak oil is religion, but almost without exception these are not meant to be taken literally but are instead rhetorical statements intended to ridicule both the idea of peak oil and its proponents.
Cheers!
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by AdamB » Wed 31 Aug 2016, 18:52:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')hatever. Peak oil is not dead, just because we all made predictions that didn't happen on schedule.
Didn't get the volume right either. Or the price path. So..if you don't get ANY of the key components correct, don't you think it is time to reevaluate the techniques whereby peak oilers screwed it up so badly?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('revi', '
') We have a problem that is not going away.
Oh, the glut will go away.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('revi', '
') If we had switched to a less intensive lifestyle as a country we wouldn't have the problems with debt and pollution we are experiencing now. Woulda, coulda, shoulda... I have a feeling that peak oil will be back with a vengeance soon enough.
You've always had that feeling revi. The cure to low oil prices is low oil prices...so you'll be right soon enough. And then peakers will proclaim peak (again), rinse, repeat, etc etc.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Wed 31 Aug 2016, 19:00:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Peak oil isn't a religion? Well...opinions vary.
For heaven's sake. Why are you wasting everyone's time with this drivel?
I provided a reference, from oilprice.com. They didn't consider it drivel, wrote an entire article about it. Seemed disturbingly accurate, if you ask me.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Opinions vary on everything. Nonetheless, it is obvious to anyone with a brain that the peak oil theory is a scientific hypothesis promulgated by a Ph.D. scientist in a series of monographs and refereed scientific publications.
The more the single peak hypothesis is discredited by the reality of oil production, the less i'm thinking that it matters how esteemed the authors were, or where they published the concept.
You are aware of scientific racism, as just one example?
http://io9.gizmodo.com/the-9-most-influ ... 1575543279$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Yes, you can find various examples on the internet of people saying peak oil is religion, but almost without exception these are not meant to be taken literally but are instead rhetorical statements intended to ridicule both the idea of peak oil and its proponents.
Cheers!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by ennui2 » Thu 01 Sep 2016, 09:47:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')So again: why argue about the date of any event if that event is of little or no importance?
Because...internet.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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by AdamB » Thu 01 Sep 2016, 12:02:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ')But the problem isn't with the "peak oil hypothesis" because it isn't an hypothesis but an absolute fact: there will come a day when the world will never produce more oil (or NG, or coal, or watermelons, or etc). The hypothesis is the speculated date of any such peak.
Plantagenet and I discussed this already. The axiomatic part of Hubbert's claim is not in dispute. BECAUSE it is axiomatic. Of course there will be a peak. Of course the random speculation of when that peak takes places is wildly entertaining, and some zealots are very unhappy when they call one date, and get it wrong. So unhappy that they begin to redefine what hydrocarbons are in order to not be wrong! Don't ask me why, ignorance of basic organic chemistry has never struck me as a valid excuse for being so wrong.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rockman', '
')And then there's the other good reason (besides the possibility of being wrong and hurting my esteemness): the date doesn't make any eaningful difference to what matters to all of us.
Quite true. What matters is the relationship between supply and demand, not supply alone. But this is the part of where economics grabbed peak oil by the short hairs and ripped them out, leaving peakers screaming about unfair it is, others knowing things they don't. Like it the other guys fault that peakers refused to learn from all the past claims of peak and running out. Those who refuse to learn history are doomed to repeat it...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rockman', '
')Maybe in 50 to 100 years we can look back and be completely certain that the final single PO date was June, 19XX. And the price of oil that date? IMHO it could just as easily be $40/bbl or $100/bbl. And the global economy might be booming or crashing on that date.
Hubbert looked back on peak oil in Ohio, during the early 1900's. Used it as an example in his seminal 1956 work. Then it about peaked again. 80 years later.
Might need to sit on that 100 year marker, just to be sure. Took the entire US 55 years to repeak, so, yup, call it a century to be sure.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rockman', '
')So again: why argue about the date of any event if that event is of little or no importance?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
