[ennui2]

Here's a good overview of where we stand in the Summer of 2016.

http://fortune.com/self-driving-cars-si ... ey-detroit

We'll see where it goes.

Highlights:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')driverless vehicles are poised to threaten the $570 billion that Americans spend each year on new cars. For 125 years U.S. auto companies made their money on the manufacture of motor vehicles. Now they must be in the business of ride-hailing apps, shuttle buses, 3D maps, and computers on wheels that drive themselves. They’re no longer automotive companies either—they’re now calling themselves “mobility” companies, just in case all those predictions about the end of car ownership come true.

[GregT]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'O')n the flipside, doomers will just counter with "But it will kill jobs!

[StarvingLion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'O')n the flipside, doomers will just counter with "But it will kill jobs!

[vox_mundi]

Your Self-Driving Car Will Be Programmed To Kill You - Deal With It

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')

A new study published in Science shows there’s a big disconnect between the kinds of ethical programming we want these vehicles to have, and the kinds of cars we actually want to ride in. Surveys done last year demonstrate that people tend to take a utilitarian approach to safety ethics. That is, they generally agree that a car with one rider should swerve off the road and crash to avoid a crowd of 10 pedestrians. But when the survey’s respondents were asked if they’d actually ride in a vehicle programmed in this way, they said no thanks.

[efarmer]

None of the above. The software company will deem the car too important to sacrifice. They will keep statistics and routes in the flash memory banks for sale to advertisers and insurance companies and will have to save the data first, and then worry about the life.

1. Impending crash detected, begin mirroring of flash since last backup to auxiliary flash memory units in trunk and underside of vehicle.

2. Begin warning sequence to driver, ask him if he wishes to die to save pedestrians.

3. Ask driver if he is sure of his decision to avoid mistaken control sequences.

4. Inform driver of discontinuity in real time events versus driver and and bot communications are forcing an error 146. Ask driver if he wishes to use Help and find out more about error 146.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '
')It will kill the entire automobile industry, and the millions upon millions of spinoff jobs which rely upon it.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '
')It will kill the entire automobile industry, and the millions upon millions of spinoff jobs which rely upon it.

[vox_mundi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '.').. Inform driver of discontinuity in real time events versus driver and bot communications are forcing an error 146. Ask driver if he wishes to use Help and find out more about error 146.

[ennui2]

The fact is the biggest cause of deaths in accidents is people. Drunk drivers, distracted drivers, just plain bad drivers. I've become convinced that self-driving features will save a ton more lives than they'll take via Sophie's Choice situations. If every car had auto-braking and just that, rear-enders would pretty much disappear, for instance.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')he fact is the biggest cause of deaths in accidents is people. Drunk drivers, distracted drivers, just plain bad drivers. I've become convinced that self-driving features will save a ton more lives than they'll take via Sophie's Choice situations. If every car had auto-braking and just that, rear-enders would pretty much disappear, for instance.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I'm puzzled about the prediction that the automobile companies are doomed due to this.

1). The best articles I've seen that construct REALISTIC timelines considering technology, laws, customs, human nature, economics, etc. (i.e. the real world, not what we wish would magically happen), it's likely roughly a 30(+) year transition from now to 99+% of vehicles on public roads being fully autonomous. This gives companies quite a bit of time to adapt.

2). The net mileage traveled by car won't necessarily decrease a lot. In fact, if the autonomous cars are efficient, comfortable, reliable, and cheap enough (per mile), and eliminate issues like hassling with parking -- demand for car travel could well increase. (For example, I HATE getting lost. As I age and my joints and eyes get worse, so I HATE driving long distances. Fully autonomous cars just might eliminate the first problem and greatly mitigate the second).

3). So if overall, the net car miles don't decrease by a lot (shared rides vs traveling between riders might be a rough trade-off, for example) -- then the number of cars sold might not decrease by a lot. The cars that sit in the driveway and are only driven 2000 miles a year will likely become things of the past. But cars will still wear out. In fact, having cars be very RELIABLE as a demand of autonomous car ridership might cause the average car to be sent to the scrapyard sooner (mileage wise) than it would otherwise, resulting in more cars built.

4). So overall, if there is a demand for 17 million-ish cars annually in the US, 20 million in China, etc. etc., then WHY are the automobile manufacturers threatened any, much less facing an existential threat?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vox_mundi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '.').. Inform driver of discontinuity in real time events versus driver and bot communications are forcing an error 146. Ask driver if he wishes to use Help and find out more about error 146.

[Sys1]

Soon, the only self driving cars available will be donkeys and horses...

Regarding AI in those technical car, the only acceptable behavior for the car is to preserve passengers whatever occurs. Even if it means killing 20 childrens to save one old lady in the car.
Why that? Because it would be ethically problematic that an AI DECIDES who should die.
A car is a machine, if the user knows that this machine could decide to kill him to save someone else, then the user won't accept to "drive" it. A machine should NEVER decide to kill someone. Picking up a decision, even with the best intentions, leads to danger when applyed to AI. It is the first step towards TERMINATOR. Living in a civilisation which accepts that a machine can decide to kill someone is a sign that this civilisation has no morality.

Moreover, it would be technically far more difficult than the shabby examples showed above :
- What if two 13 years old girls want to suicide and jump on the road while a mother get back to home in her AI car with food for her two babies at home with daddy? The AI car would immediatly kill the mother. Great!
- What if a young bad guy knowing how works AI car jump on the road while the old lady with her Google car crash on the wall? Funny!
- What if 2 AI cars with 2 adults and one children in each decide simultaneously to avoid 3 childrens crossing the road : 6 dead to save 3 childs who crossed the road hazardously. Sum of AI doesn't add up!

Those examples show that it is simply impossible to create an AI to drive car safely, except if you consider driving safely is driving very slowly.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '4'). Inform driver of discontinuity in real time events versus driver and and bot communications are forcing an error 146. Ask driver if he wishes to use Help and find out more about error 146.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GregT', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'O')n the flipside, doomers will just counter with "But it will kill jobs!

[ennui2]

Sorry, car-sharing is cheaper. No car payments and no insurance. I know it's hard to cut through the doomer blinders people are wearing, but that's the truth.

[Newfie]

FWIW,
In Oswego, NY today. Walked to a store a couple of miles, bought some stuff, wanted a ride back to the boat.
Uber.......nada
TAxi.......we are not available
Bus........hour wait

We lugged our stuff back ourselves.

[vox_mundi]

Tesla driver killed in crash while using car's 'Autopilot'

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') The first U.S. fatality using self-driving technology took place in May when the driver of a Tesla S sports car operating the vehicle's "Autopilot" automated driving system died after a collision with a truck in Florida, federal officials said Thursday.

The government is investigating the design and performance of Tesla's system.

Preliminary reports indicate the crash occurred when a tractor-trailer rig made a left turn in front of the Tesla at an intersection of a divided highway where there was no traffic light, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said. The Tesla driver died due to injuries sustained in the crash, which took place May 7 in Williston, Florida, the agency said. The city is southwest of Gainesville.

Tesla said on its website that neither the driver nor the Autopilot noticed the white side of the trailer, which was perpendicular to the Model S, against the brightly lit sky, and neither applied the brakes.

"The high ride height of the trailer combined with its positioning across the road and the extremely rare circumstances of the impact caused the Model S to pass under the trailer," the company said. The windshield of the Model S collided with the bottom of the trailer.

By the time firefighters arrived, the wreckage of the Tesla—with its roof sheared off completely—was hundreds of feet from the crash site where it had come to rest in a nearby yard, assistant chief Danny Wallace of the Williston Fire Department told The Associated Press. The driver was pronounced dead, "Signal Seven" in the local firefighters' jargon, and they respectfully covered the wreckage and waited for crash investigators to arrive.

The company said this was the first known death in over 130 million miles of Autopilot operation. It said the NHTSA investigation is a preliminary inquiry to determine whether the system worked as expected.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')112 humans were killed yesterday in autos due to their own negligence. Media response - yawn.