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Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 2

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 15:34:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hatever, you still have not answered my request for proof of the recent crude-oil price drop. I asked you:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith due respect whatever: you claim the ETP model is predictive. Do you have proof? Can you point to where the model saw the recent precipitous oil-price drop beforehand? A link to an earlier chart, perhaps when oil was $100? Or $60 or something? A chart from the past with a line that drops like a dead cat about now. Is this the last oscillation?

That question was part of my query regarding water cut. I was honestly (rightfully given my admitted lack of physics) trying to understand how water cut is measured in lieu of reporting standards. Yes, Rockman dishonestly paraphrased me but you did not help by conflating my querie with his insult/dismissal

Dude. Look at the graphs I have been posting. The model has been predictive for two years.

Meanwhile, it feels like you are blocking for rockdoc. Uncool. Why are you doing that? And with red type like I just used? Seriously? You are trying to muddy the waters on purpose. No one could really be so tone deaf! I asked rockdoc a very important question that no one here will answer:

Is there a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil?



---Futilitist 8)
Last edited by Whatever on Sat 11 Jun 2016, 15:44:21, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 2

Unread postby radon1 » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 15:36:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', ' ')no one here will answer:

Is there a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil?


No.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 2

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 15:48:10

Radon - Of course there is: just look at the dramatic change in the thermodynamics of oil production that must have occurred about two years ago that brought about the crash in oil prices. Obviously the change was significant enough to drop oil to less then $30/bbl for a while. Who would have thought the thermodynamics could change that much so fast. LOL.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 2

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 15:51:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'R')adon - Of course there is: just look at the dramatic change in the thermodynamics of oil production that must have occurred about two years ago that brought about the crash in oil prices. Obviously the change was significant enough to drop oil to less then $30/bbl for a while. Who would have thought the thermodynamics could change that much so fast. LOL.

You sure didn't.

LOL.



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 2

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 16:59:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'w')hatever, I am just trying to get this right. I asked you to point to me a chart that is predictive, that predicted the oil-price drop that commenced around July 2013


Image

The graph has a date on it: 09/18/14. So BWHill did not predict the price plunge before it began (but he was pretty damn close, don't you think?). A little more than two months after the oil price decline began, BWHill was forecasting that the price of oil would continue to decline. Very few people thought so at the time.

Image

And the Etp model continues to perform perfectly.

That should be sufficient for most people, pstarr. Now that you have accepted the Etp model, we can talk realistically about where civilization is in regard to thermodynamic limits. No more need refer to Pimentel's yet to be applied approach to ERoEI, or uselessly debating what Hall wrote in 1981! The Etp argument is much more effective. It just ties the disingenuous thermodynamic deniers in knots! :mrgreen:



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 19:20:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou rockdoc, seem to be under the mistaken assumption that you drill the well. That only your rig, pipes, cement and labor bring oil to the market. That is so much self-centered BS. How do you think steel was turned into pipe? Some other oil. If that other oil is not there then the entire oil-production system stops. Net-energy analysis assumes there must be oil outside the oil production system to power the system and the larger economy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')esterday's oil drills today's well. That is where the money comes from.


Well I never said anything about it being "my rig etc" which would be difficult to do from my retirement chair, I was speaking of the oil industry as a whole which I thought was quite clear. So all that outside oil, who made the decision to find all that oil back then? From day one oil was discovered by oil and gas companies in order to make money....someone else wanted it (the consumer) so the decision was made to find it. That steel might just as easily have come from a coal fired mill, indeed if it is Chinese pipe it almost certainly did. And that money to drill the wells might have come from somewhere outside of the oil industry as well (K.C. Irving built his vast oil empire from money made in the lumber industry). And if someone had not decided to drill a well that oil would not be there. The whole shape and notion of the Peak Oil curve was determined by those decisions that were made, and none of them involved a consideration for entropy or free energy or heat, all of them were based on a projection of potential profit.
.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t seems you have no eyes behind your own bank account.


well considering all my current income is from investments, none of which are in the oil and gas business currently, not sure how that comes into play at all. :-?

And unless everyone who uses EROEI in their analysis has exactly the same boundaries defined on the energy inputs (which they do not, in fact most don't even bother to tell you what was included and what was not) then any answer is non-unique.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd no decision made by an oil company will change the fact that we reached the thermodynamic limit for the life cycle of oil production in 2012. That means that the price of oil will generally decline from now on.


Holy smokes...you better call up all these bankers right away and tell them their energy calculations are all wrong!! :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ver the last month, investors have bought call options — giving the right to buy at a predetermined price and time — for late 2018, 2019 and 2020 at strike prices of $80, $100 and $110 a barrel, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange and the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.

Even before the most recent flurry, some investors had already built super-bullish positions. The largest number of outstanding contracts — or open interest — across both bullish and bearish options contracts for December 2018 is for calls at $125 a barrel. For December 2020, it’s for $150 calls.

Earlier this month, one investor bought more than 4 million barrels worth of call options at $110 and $80 a barrel for 2019 and 2020 in several transactions.

http://boereport.com/2016/06/10/how-far-can-oil-rally-options-investors-bet-on-surge-above-100/
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 19:55:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou rockdoc, seem to be under the mistaken assumption that you drill the well. That only your rig, pipes, cement and labor bring oil to the market. That is so much self-centered BS. How do you think steel was turned into pipe? Some other oil. If that other oil is not there then the entire oil-production system stops. Net-energy analysis assumes there must be oil outside the oil production system to power the system and the larger economy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')esterday's oil drills today's well. That is where the money comes from.


Well I never said anything about it being "my rig etc" which would be difficult to do from my retirement chair, I was speaking of the oil industry as a whole which I thought was quite clear. So all that outside oil, who made the decision to find all that oil back then? From day one oil was discovered by oil and gas companies in order to make money....someone else wanted it (the consumer) so the decision was made to find it. That steel might just as easily have come from a coal fired mill, indeed if it is Chinese pipe it almost certainly did. And that money to drill the wells might have come from somewhere outside of the oil industry as well (K.C. Irving built his vast oil empire from money made in the lumber industry). And if someone had not decided to drill a well that oil would not be there. The whole shape and notion of the Peak Oil curve was determined by those decisions that were made, and none of them involved a consideration for entropy or free energy or heat, all of them were based on a projection of potential profit.

I basically agree with you. The whole shape of the oil age was made by billions and billions of individual decisions, none of which was concerned in the least with thermodynamics. That is what I mean when I say that oil industry decisions don't control peak oil. No one controls peak oil.

Peak oil is a thermodynamic phenomenon. Since the oil industry is only concerned with making money, why should anybody care what they think about thermodynamic limits?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Futilitist', 'A')nd no decision made by an oil company will change the fact that we reached the thermodynamic limit for the life cycle of oil production in 2012. That means that the price of oil will generally decline from now on.

Holy smokes...you better call up all these bankers right away and tell them their energy calculations are all wrong!! :roll:
I thought the oil industry was making all the decisions. Now you have the bankers in charge. So how do the bankers know which way the oil price is going to go? Do they use thermodynamics? Bankers have been *WAY* wrong before, remember? Many bankers lost a lot of money when the oil price crashed. They sure weren't right then. What makes you so sure they are right now?

And by the way, have you had a chance to think about the answer to this question:

8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O
8O Is there a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil? 8O
8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O 8O

This is like pulling teeth, rockdoc. Please. I asked you a fair question. You really should come up with an answer.



---Futilitist 8)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 21:14:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is what I mean when I say that oil industry decisions don't control peak oil. No one controls peak oil.


You do not understand what Peak Oil is then. It is by definition the maximum level of production. How does production happen if it isn't oil and gas companies making decisions to drill and produce? The decisions made by shale oil companies to take huge leverage and drill thousands of wells has had an impact on the shape of the Peak Oil curve, the decision by companies in West Africa and Brazil to delay the production from ultra-deep water has an impact on the Peak Oil curve. If companies had never bothered to drill in many places the Peak Oil curve would look completely different. If there were no oil companies drilling there would be no oil to worry about Peaking.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o how do the bankers know which way the oil price is going to go? Do they use thermodynamics? Bankers have been *WAY* wrong before, remember? Many bankers lost a lot of money when the oil price crashed. They sure weren't right then. What makes you so sure they are right now?


yes and bankers have been right before (and the crash had squat to do with thermodynamics but rather an aggressive stance by OPEC) and of course they don't use thermodynamics their price models are based on supply and demand and geopolitics. The fact of the matter is they believe oil price is rising and you are saying it can't possibly rise. Now over the years they have made billions playing this game and you have made ?? If you are so confident then maybe you can disclose all the short positions you have taken on oil given you are absolutely sure that your thermodynamic model is correct?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s there a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil?


I could not care one way or the other if there is or isn't and can't be bothered to worry about. Put me in the same camp as the thousands of oil and gas companies in the world, the thousands of banks that invest in oil and gas and the 100's of thousands of executives who are involved in making oil and gas decisions each and every day. But then of course you know more than they do. :roll:
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 22:03:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Futilitist', 'T')hat is what I mean when I say that oil industry decisions don't control peak oil. No one controls peak oil.

You do not understand what Peak Oil is then. It is by definition the maximum level of production. How does production happen if it isn't oil and gas companies making decisions to drill and produce? The decisions made by shale oil companies to take huge leverage and drill thousands of wells has had an impact on the shape of the Peak Oil curve, the decision by companies in West Africa and Brazil to delay the production from ultra-deep water has an impact on the Peak Oil curve. If companies had never bothered to drill in many places the Peak Oil curve would look completely different. If there were no oil companies drilling there would be no oil to worry about Peaking.

Who are you arguing with? I basically agree with you. The whole shape of the oil age was made by billions and billions of individual decisions, none of which was concerned in the least with thermodynamics. That is what I mean when I say that oil industry decisions don't control peak oil. No one controls peak oil. Do you understand what the word control means?

This two page argument all started with this simple statement by me:

Oil company decisions cannot defy the laws of thermodynamics, so oil companies do not control peak oil.

My statement is true. You have turned this into an endless word game. Knock it off.

Peak oil is a thermodynamic phenomenon. Since the oil industry is only concerned with making money, why should anybody care what they think about thermodynamic limits?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Futilitist', 'S')o how do the bankers know which way the oil price is going to go? Do they use thermodynamics? Bankers have been *WAY* wrong before, remember? Many bankers lost a lot of money when the oil price crashed. They sure weren't right then. What makes you so sure they are right now?

yes and bankers have been right before (and the crash had squat to do with thermodynamics but rather an aggressive stance by OPEC) and of course they don't use thermodynamics their price models are based on supply and demand and geopolitics. The fact of the matter is they believe oil price is rising and you are saying it can't possibly rise. Now over the years they have made billions playing this game and you have made ?? If you are so confident then maybe you can disclose all the short positions you have taken on oil given you are absolutely sure that your thermodynamic model is correct?

I don't play the markets. I study them.

As far as being sure of the Etp model, there are too many reasons to list here again. The reasons have been well covered on this thread. The real question is:

What makes you so sure the Etp model is wrong?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Futilitist', 'I')s there a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil?
I could not care one way or the other if there is or isn't and can't be bothered to worry about.
So you don't care? What a total cop-out! Why didn't you say so sooner? Why are you spending so much time on this thread? Before you got here, we were talking about thermodynamic limits.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'P')ut me in the same camp as the thousands of oil and gas companies in the world, the thousands of banks that invest in oil and gas and the 100's of thousands of executives who are involved in making oil and gas decisions each and every day.
So you just go with the crowd and hope for the best. That seems kind of intellectually lazy to me but different strokes for different folks, I guess.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'B')ut then of course you know more than they do. :roll:
When it comes to thermodynamic limits, I will go with the physicists instead of the oil men and the bankers. :roll:



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 00:39:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat makes you so sure the Etp model is wrong?


It is an abduction and discrediting of EROEI studies with the probable desired goal of legitimizing alternative 'localized' carbon (mostly biomass) processing startup companies (eg. Xfuels.com) that are very likely EROEI negative.

shortonoil etp model is actually a criticism of the process of carbon extraction, rather than the prediction of the end of a carbon economy altogether. His motivation is to end globalisation.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 2

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 01:54:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')Image

And the Etp model continues to perform perfectly.


I don't see how the ETP model can be claimed to perform perfectly, when in the chart above the 50 week average moving price was above the "Etp Maximum Oil Price Curve" for about one and a half years.

You told me off in a previous post/thread for not being exact as to the length of time, and I could do that if you published that data behind the chart, but as you have only published the chart as proof of the theory and I have to 'eyeball' it. But clearly the Actual oil price was above the Maximum Price Curve from about mid-2013 to 2015. Now, I would accept a short spike above the"Maximum Price", but for the limit to be broken for 18 months indicates that much more work needs to be done, and the predictive power of the model has been wrong in the recent past, with oil reaching and staying at a price that was impossible in "thermodynamic theory"

Having said that, I think that there are some good underlying ideas behind the model (similar to a suggestion Pops gave some years ago that the total purchase of oil could not go above a certain % of the GDP). However, you are claiming more accuracy for the model than you are showing in the graphs.

I also realise (on the other graph that was posted) that the missing data from the 1980s might not altered the final figures very much, but leaving out data that does not fit the curve is a very worrying thing in my view point and undermines what the Hill Group is trying to show. To use an analogy from Theology where one of my favourate sayings is "I can prove anything I want from the Bible provided I can choose which bits I leave out."
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 03:42:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s there a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil?


I think its a trick question. If I say No, I'm implying physical law has no role at all in determining the price which is absurd, ...if I say Yes I don't have to qualify my answer with the condition that massaging the data is necessary to eliminate the fact price is a human socioeconomic construct.

The objective of this trick question is steer the "obvious" answer to Yes. The repetition of this question is a clue that it is a trick.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 13:14:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s there a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil?


I think its a trick question. If I say No, I'm implying physical law has no role at all in determining the price which is absurd, ...if I say Yes I don't have to qualify my answer with the condition that massaging the data is necessary to eliminate the fact price is a human socioeconomic construct.

The objective of this trick question is steer the "obvious" answer to Yes. The repetition of this question is a clue that it is a trick.

The repetition of the question is a clue that everyone here is dodging the question. It is not a trick question. The fact that no one, except pstarr, will answer it is a clue to how disingenuous all of the arguments against the Etp model really are. People don't want to admit there is a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil because that would be acknowledging the basic logic behind the creation of the Etp model. That would make it much harder to claim the model is wrong.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EdwinSm', 'T')o use an analogy from Theology where one of my favourate sayings is "I can prove anything I want from the Bible provided I can choose which bits I leave out."

Biblical 'wisdom' vs physical reality. You had better pray that the Etp model is wrong. 8O

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') do say 'yes' . . . there is a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil. And I do not quality with any conditions.

Excellent. That is the right thing to do because it is true. If everyone else would acknowledge that there is a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil, we might be able to have a useful discussion with a lot less bullsh*t.



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 15:17:49

Futilitist,

I don't think you and shortonoil are on the same page regarding prediction of the final outcome. shortonoil predicts:

"the Etp Model informs us that the global integrated petroleum system is failing."

while Futilitist predicts collapse and the end of the petroleum age.

Big difference. "Global integrated petroleum system" means globalization. shortonoil obviously believes a particular local configuration of a petroleum based economy can work.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 15:44:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvingkitty', 'H')is motivation is to end globalisation.

more crazy.

But seriously Starv, regarding your trick question: I agree with you, but not for the reason you (pretend?) to make. Oil may well be priced as a caulk or war paint some day . . . at seeps that will continue to ooze on the edge civilization.

The rest is absurd. I do say 'yes' . . . there is a thermodynamic limit to the price of oil. And I do not quality with any conditions. Not because I massage data, or ignore the human socioeconomic context of all language. It is because of the essential thermodynamic nature of money, and it relative importance (price) to commerce.

Money is a call on future work, a description of current debt. Without oil there is no future work (of industrial significance) and so current debt and current currency (result of past industrial effort) becomes worthless. So do does work and commerce. The idea of oil price will have no meaning.


Since the nature of Money has always changed over time, I state that as of today Money is an illusion in leveraged speculation of decaying assets made possible by monetizing poverty around the world at ever lower interest rates. The illusion is made possible by the publics belief in the Quantity Analysis of Petroleum. In fact, the recent shale bubble's only purpose was to reinforce that there exists trillions of barrels of oil all over the world waiting to be readily consumed. And it worked. The apathy of the public made possible by shale is that there is another 100 years of petroleum and the focus should be on environmental issues. The reality is that every state is an importer of quality oil and ore that only exists around Russia and Iran.

When the so-called western states central banks have nothing but Goldman Sachs people running them...well...that tells me the money system requires Goldman software to create ponzi "wealth". See here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleynikov

I think the "local petroleum economy" that shortonoil envisions is just a localized miniature of the globalized Goldman Sachs Fake Wealth Effect Money System that pretends EROEI erosion of coal and oil is not really destroying the world in a deflation death spiral. Certainly the regulated banks based on fractional reserve methods must be all insolvent. Hence the shadow ponzi system.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 16:07:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')And the Etp model continues to perform perfectly.
---Futilitist 8)



ETP model backcast to 1859 using real pricing to verify this statement please.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sun 12 Jun 2016, 16:22:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou had better pray that the Etp model is wrong.


How can it ever be wrong. The etp model is an engine, not a camera.

"the etp model informs us..." whatever shortonoil wishes it to inform us. Its a copycat of the Goldman Sachs "we are the market" globalized ponzi system but is instead trying to start a new local biomass based negative EROEI save the world from peak oil and globalization doom petroleum system.
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