[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')we know that many if not most of the Fracking oil companies that formed or greatly expanded operations in all the different plays during the 2009-2015 period were losing money on their physical production even at those $80-96 selling prices

[ROCKMAN]

T - Here's the problem with your statement: I can name many individual EFS wells that have produced 350,000 gross bbls when oil was $90/bbl. IOW invested $8 million and netted $20+ million. I can also show many $8 million wells that didn't net $2 million before they depleted.

So pick one company...any company. And tell me when the drilled each of their EFS wells, how much each well cost, how much each company has spent on leases (included any leases that weren't drilled), how much the spent on sassaslaries and other overhead and, lastly, how much the paid in interest on any loans used to finance ops.

Now give me that same info on every company that played the EFS. And don't give me the bullsh*t annual report info because it won't come close to doing the job. IOW no one has that info since such details are proprietary and aren't typically available.

Bottom line: there are companies that made nice profits and ones that lost their asses. And I can't give you any logical basis for estimating the % of each category. Of all the hundreds of times I've seen others make that same statement as you've just did I've yet to see documentation to back it up. The Rockman for one would love I see that information. Do you have a link? I mean to the actual data and not someone repeating what they've read what someone else state. LOL.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')Bottom line: there are companies that made nice profits and ones that lost their asses.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ottom line: there are companies that made nice profits and ones that lost their asses. And I can't give you any logical basis for estimating the % of each category. Of all the hundreds of times I've seen others make that same statement as you've just did I've yet to see documentation to back it up. The Rockman for one would love I see that information. Do you have a link? I mean to the actual data and not someone repeating what they've read what someone else state. LOL.

[ennui2]

I suppose this is somewhere off the frontpage, but it's relevant to this thread.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/01/investi ... tion-opec/

Important quotes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')cheap oil forced American shale producers to get a lot better at pumping cheaply. Many have made huge operational improvements that allow them to drill more oil per rig, bringing costs down.
...
The key element here is the so-called the drilled-but-uncompleted wells sitting in shale plays.
"These were not economical sub-$40, but are very much at play at $50,"

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') suppose this is somewhere off the frontpage, but it's relevant to this thread.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/01/investi ... tion-opec/

Important quotes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')cheap oil forced American shale producers to get a lot better at pumping cheaply. Many have made huge operational improvements that allow them to drill more oil per rig, bringing costs down.
...
The key element here is the so-called the drilled-but-uncompleted wells sitting in shale plays.
"These were not economical sub-$40, but are very much at play at $50,"

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')What makes this report any more credible than the ones they were putting out two years ago about the huge debt to cash flow ratio's of the average fracking oil company? Those structural issues have not disappeared just because a few companies were not bankrupted.

[Tanada]

Ennui I read a wide variety of "credible" news sources and that means I notice certain patterns. Whatever the trending story of the day is they all pretty regularly jump on the bandwagon and repeat it endlessly until the next 'news' item shoves it aside and gets all the attention.

Try these stories on for size, all from mainstream media sources Bloomberg and Financial Times from two short years ago.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -treadmill

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... hale-costs

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5bdbd48c ... ab7de.html

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5cefeb8a ... abdc0.html

Also for good measure try this one,
http://oilprice.com/Interviews/Shale-th ... erman.html

Every one of those is about the terrible rates of returns fracking oil was delivering to the bulk of the investors in early 2014 when oil was around $92/bbl. Oil this morning was something like $48.80/bbl, so what makes you think any of these companies that were built on loaned capital are going to be able to make a profit now? A few companies are still fracking and completing and producing in the known sweet spots, but that is pretty much it for the industry today. Sure if the price goes way up and the economy can support it fracking will pick back up, but like the dotcom bubble burst investment banks are going to want to see a lot more due diligence by their loan officers before they pass out cash to rebuild oe replace the companies that never made a profit when oil was in the $80-95 range for three years.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') suppose this is somewhere off the frontpage, but it's relevant to this thread.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/01/investi ... tion-opec/

Important quotes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')cheap oil forced American shale producers to get a lot better at pumping cheaply. Many have made huge operational improvements that allow them to drill more oil per rig, bringing costs down.
...
The key element here is the so-called the drilled-but-uncompleted wells sitting in shale plays.
"These were not economical sub-$40, but are very much at play at $50,"

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - I think some folks are being just a tad sloppy with nomenclature..Most know that the overwhelming majority of OPERATORS own none of the drilling or frac'ng equipment. Even Big Oil rents most of what it uses from the service companies.

[Zarquon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') don't just pull my analysis out of thin air. This is the kind of stuff I read, which contradicts doomers with their overly negative spin (like that crap about not being profitable at $80-90).

No mention anywhere that there would not be enough free-flowing credit to support Fracking 2.0. Nowhere.

[joelund]

AdamB and Rockman:

Triangle (TPLM) and Liberty Resources Management (pvt firm) both operators in the Bakken have subsidiaries that own/ operate frack equipment and crews. TPLM, which is basically on financial life support, has Rockpile and Liberty recently acquired the US assets of Canadian service company Sand Gel. Both operators frack their own wells as well as 3d party wells..
Liberty has one rig running and TPLM has none. Not sure of their respective DUC counts.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - I think some folks are being just a tad sloppy with nomenclature..

[ROCKMAN]

Joe - True but those are very rare exceptions. Chesapeake worked that angle to a small degree also. But here's what many don't understand: Company A might be the operator of a well but only owns 50% of it...or less. So it only pays for its share of the costs. But A doesn't own the equipment...its sub (which A owns 100% of) Company B owns it. And A and its working interest partners pay B full priced for its services...which might not be the lowest cost option available. IOW B isn't doing the work at cost but for a profit margin. A profit that goes directly into the pockets of A. And often given the front end costs of setting up B if the boom doesn't last long enough it can quickly turn into a net loss for A.

You might want to research the details of those two companies and "follow the money". I've seen dishonest operators f*ck over unsophisticated partners using such a scam. The Rockman even worked for one in the 80's and played a small role in helping bust them.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zarquon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') don't just pull my analysis out of thin air. This is the kind of stuff I read, which contradicts doomers with their overly negative spin (like that crap about not being profitable at $80-90).

No mention anywhere that there would not be enough free-flowing credit to support Fracking 2.0. Nowhere.

[ennui2]

"is there anyway we can get links to daily blurbs right up front in the news on the website?"

No. The frontpage is for linking to Zerohedge, PrisonPlanet, and assorted random doomer blogs.

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - In the late 70's the Rockman did one of the largest fracs ever done on a vertical well. It was in the Edwards carbonate shale. BTW it didn't work worth a sh*t. LOL.

I almost always link my data to the EIA. And while some don't like that source I keep asking them for one they feel is more credible. So far no responses. They are always my first go-to.

[joelund]

I agree Rockman, combining service industry and E&P under one roof is tricky bs. Noble, with their off shore contract drilling division is an example of one that has worked. I have some experience with one of CHK's ill fated ventures into the service bs. They joint ventured to acquire DHS, a drilling company hq in Casper. They drilled a well for us in NE MT right on the MT ND border. Worst modern rig I have been associated with. Cost overrun was huge and when we released the rig they hauled it back to casper never to be utilized again.
It is also tricky the other way, a service company going into the production bs. During 2007 Nabors partnered with one of your TX energy funds to acquire a large portion of the Tiger Ridge field in NE MT. The seller a pvt Dallas operator who I am sure you would know of, was a much better seller than they were buyers. Combine that with the collapse in nat gas price they turned ~$300M into ~ $30M.
Re TPLM no need, they will be a footnote in bankruptcy court soon. On the other hand Liberty, have drilled 8 wells with them so far. Another 38 to go. No complaints.

[ROCKMAN]

Joe - True: if management understand the dynamics very well the synergism can be great. But as you point out it's rare. Usually done more the hype value for a pubco trying to look more viable then the really are.

Back in the 70's I worked with Transco Pipeline. That's all they did: haul NG for others. Done right that's virtually risk free. And then the book came and they decided to start exploring for their own NG. I'll skip the ugly details but it didn't take too many years to destroy the company to the point it was acquired by another big pipeline company. BTW one of the ugly details: they signed on to a JV that drilled 18 wells...everyone a DRY HOLE. And the company running the JV: senior management retired millionaires. Then the Rockman worked for another big non-oil patch pubco that decided to try its hand in the exploration biz: turned $550 million into $60 million oil/NG reserves.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '&')quot;is there anyway we can get links to daily blurbs right up front in the news on the website?"

No. The frontpage is for linking to Zerohedge, PrisonPlanet, and assorted random doomer blogs.