[Revi]

I think that we will be able to date peak oil in the rearview mirror. In maybe a couple of years we'll start to see it. then we'll see that we never came up to that amount of oil we produced in 2015, or whenever the peak was. Everything's clear in hindsight.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - So true. Which emphasizes the point I keep boring some folks with: the date of global PO actually has little relevance in our daily lives.

LONG LIVE THE POD!!!

As if we have a f*cking choice. LOL

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Regardless I asked about the the missing $1 trillion dollars. In your opinion, did it have
a) nothing,
b) little,
c) or a trifle to do with our Great Recession?

[ennui2]

This is the only chart anyone needs to see to blame real-estate for the credit-crisis. I've used it many times and each time PStarr scoffs at it because he's mentally incapable of adding 2+2 on this simple logic. Clear peaker blinders.



The big spike up in people's monthly mortgage payments far outweighed the increased cost of commuting from the exurbs at $3.xx vs. $2.00 gas.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Current reserves from old fields are mostly unknowable as the old fields were mapped before modern 4-D seismic.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think that we will be able to date peak oil in the rearview mirror. In maybe a couple of years we'll start to see it. then we'll see that we never came up to that amount of oil we produced in 2015, or whenever the peak was. Everything's clear in hindsight.

[ennui2]

PStarr's argument seems to revolve around the simple truth that oil is underground and we can't see it therefore we don't know how much is left. And since we can't, it's up to our individual biases to predict how much. Doomers = less. Cornies = more. That's really not a scientific argument. It's arguing for superstition or a crap-shoot.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')How can current reserves from an old field be determined (modern reserves measure are a function both of production history and field geology).

a) the original production data is not accurate before SEC filings and,
b) the original field dimension were not mapped.

So You are wrong. And you need to drop the snarky images. They waste bandwidth and are visually actually an ad hom. Flagged?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'P')Starr's argument seems to revolve around the simple truth that oil is underground and we can't see it therefore we don't know how much is left. And since we can't, it's up to our individual biases to predict how much. Doomers = less. Cornies = more. That's really not a scientific argument. It's arguing for superstition or a crap-shoot.

[tita]

Most recent reserves where not a result of hot new technology applied, but only to economical recovery linked to high prices which permitted to apply these expensive technologies. And everybody believed these prices would stay because of the lack of major new discoveries. The reserves grew because of the prices, and are decreasing for the same reason.

Unfortunately, high prices had an effect on consumption, and an unexpected effect on production (shale oil, but also other developments). The turnaround in prices reverse this situation. But it doesn't change the fact that we have no more huge discoveries of cheap oil.

[ROCKMAN]

Guys, guys, guys. If you don't want to believe me that's OK. But for more than 40 years one of my primary duties has been estimating reserves IN DEVELOPED AND PRODUCING FIELDS. Seismic data is too coarse a tool to help. First, since it has been drilled up, there's a lot of very detailed geologic data from the well logs which is infinitely more accurate then seismic. But even with all that subsurface data many assumptions have to be made to predict future recovery. But that's true only before production begins. Once a field has been producing for a significant time the validity or inaccuracy of those assumptions typically become rather obvious. Several years ago I saw a well with an expected life of 5+ years deplete in 31 days. We still don’t know why even after drilling a number of offset wells. Note: there are exploration geologists that discover fields, development geologists that drill them up and also production geologists that study them after they’ve been drilled up. For at least 2 decades the Rockman's duties have been that of a production geologist: I study fields that have a significant production history. And I do this looking for new opportunities.

Which is what led Rockman to drilling hz wells in a 66 year old conventional oil reservoir. Before those wells were drilled the entire field was doing 12 bopd from 6 wells. Yes: about 2 bopd per well and a sh*t load of water. The first hz well was drilled in the middle of 4 “depleted” producers and flowed 400 bopd. I can’t give details as to why this worked because I would have to kill everyone here. LOL. And the Rockman wasn’t the first to recognize all the stranded oil in this field as well as others in the trend. But he was the first one to figure out how to produce that oil profitably: numerous other efforts failed economically. And one more trade secret I can’t share. And yes: my little company (that very few in the Texas oil patch even know exists) was the first one to drill a commercial successful hz well in the Gulf Coast in a conventional sandstone reservoir.

FYI: there no seismic data that would have even hinted at the possibly redevelopment of this reservoir. Again I can’t begin to off all the tech training to folks here to allow them to grasp even the simplest fundamentals: it has taken me 4 decades to get to where I am now and I’m still learning. So believe or don’t believe and continue arguing amongst yourselves. This is all I have to say on the matter.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll three reserve measures (volumetric, materials balance, and production decline curve) of legacy fields require some combination of current/past production and OOP. There is no way to determine the size of a legacy reservoir if that historical perspective is missing. This is why Saudi Arabia has been able to maintain reserve in Ghawar at exactly 250 BBO for 35 years. And that is meaningless.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'G')uys, guys, guys. If you don't want to believe me that's OK. But for more than 40 years one of my primary duties has been estimating reserves IN DEVELOPED AND PRODUCING FIELDS. Seismic data is too coarse a tool to help.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', ' ')But it doesn't change the fact that we have no more huge discoveries of cheap oil.

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - For years I would run into many companies that wouldn't even review a prospect if there wasn't 3d seismic. Of course 3d seismic was a huge advance. It provided a much better success rate. Unfortunately one of the reason for that better success was that 3d seis probably killed more prospects then it got drilled. OTOH there have been many viable prospects that couldn't be killed or improved by 3d. My hz redevelopment of a conventional oil field for example. 3D wouldn't not have killed it or made it an easier sell. I sold it on the basis of a very unique and relatively unknown reservoir production dynamic. If you showed what I was able to do the majority of Houston reservoir engineers would call you a liar. Really. LOL. That's how very unique the reservoir dynamics have played out. I tried selling the idea for 10 years with no buyers. The I found my owner who has made non-oil patch $BILLIONS by thinking out side the box.

That and $90/bbl got my wells drilled. LOL.

[onlooker]

"Evidence suggests $60 is untenable."
And the corollary can be made that less than $60 is untenable for Shale and Tar production and deliverance to market.