[ennui2]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/201 ... d199cce792

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')break-even costs have fallen as companies have traversed the learning curve. In the early days of the shale boom, break even costs of $100/bbl were common. But oil prices remained at that level for a long enough period of time that operators gained a lot of experience in optimizing hydraulic fracturing in horizontal wells. As a result, the portion of the break even costs that are a function of the well cost and the amount of oil ultimately recovered steadily declined.

[ROCKMAN]

Pstarr – “Much of the recent growth in world oil production since the Great Recession has been enabled by high oil prices and questionable investment…”. It might seem that way but the actual data shows a different slant. From 1920 to the US peak in 1971 production increased almost 800% from 1.2 mm bopd to 9.5 mm bopd. During that entire time the inflation adjusted price of oil was very stead between $20-25/bbl. During the recent shale boom we saw production increase about only about 90% thanks to those high oil prices.

As far as cumulative production we produced about 90 billion bbls of oil from 1920 to 1971. And from 1971 to 2005 about 100 billion bbls. But a significant amount of that 100 BILLION bbls came from fields older than 1971. Granted all those wells are down to stripper level but there are a huge number of them out there. And I must point out that between 1986 and 2004 part of that 100 billion bbls was produced when prices averaged between $30 and $40 per bbl…about where we are today. Bottom line: we discovered and produced a sh*tload of oil in the US at prices at or below current levels.

The more interesting stat IMHO is the rather small increase in production during the late 70’s boom when the inflation adjusted price of oil jumped above $100/bbl for a short while as well as more than twice as many rigs drilling as we saw during the shale boom.

Globally not a very different story. During the low oil price period between 1986 to 2005 production increased 25%. From 2005 thru 2014, during the high oil price time, it increased about 28%. A shorter time span but at about the same rate as it did during the low price period. And of course a good bit of that increase came from the US shales.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'E')ven if $60 is the line, the economy can survive $100/bbl oil.

[ROCKMAN]

It just occurred to me but to answer the question of whether that "danger" has passed or not maybe each one needs to first define what the "danger" might be: higher oil prices, less production, more military adventures, more unemployment, etc.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Can the world economy thrive above $40 oil? It only did so for a very short time?

Evidence suggests $60 is untenable.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'E')ven if $60 is the line, the economy can survive $100/bbl oil.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '
')There is such an immense amount of fat to cut, with SUV drivers and needless commuting by those who could telecommute, that the hardships imposed by a new-normal of $100/oil really wouldn't be that big of a deal. Whining about having to telecommute or drive a hybrid or no longer flying to the Bahamas for vacation would be a first-world problem.

[ralfy]

Even with resources shared equally across the world population, we still see overshoot:

https://theconversation.com/if-everyone ... uble-43905

That means there isn't even fat that can be cut.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'E')ven with resources shared equally across the world population, we still see overshoot:

https://theconversation.com/if-everyone ... uble-43905

That means there isn't even fat that can be cut.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Also of note? Cheap oil ended in 1970. Most of us were raised under more expensive oil, and it was so horrifying...we didn't even notice.....

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'E')ven if $60 is the line, the economy can survive $100/bbl oil.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Also of note? Cheap oil ended in 1970. Most of us were raised under more expensive oil, and it was so horrifying...we didn't even notice.....

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Also of note? Cheap oil ended in 1970. Most of us were raised under more expensive oil, and it was so horrifying...we didn't even notice.....

[M_B_S]

My answer is NO

The sheeple whant to believe but its all about physics.

You can allways print money but no oil=energy.


https://next.ft.com/content/255dea78-18 ... af20d5575e

Crude soothsayers should recall cautionary tale of ‘Peak Oil’

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('M_B_S', 'M')y answer is NO

The sheeple whant to believe but its all about physics.

You can allways print money but no oil=energy.


https://next.ft.com/content/255dea78-18 ... af20d5575e

Crude soothsayers should recall cautionary tale of ‘Peak Oil’

[ROCKMAN]

T – Good points. But given what we’ve experienced the last 15 years perhaps it’s time to stop trying to characterize PO (or the lack of PO) by oil prices, rig counts, production rates, etc. It seems clear IMHO the global PO will be characterized by all/by none of those factors. It will be the volatility of the dynamic. Look at the focus of most of the ongoing debates: it’s about the radical change in those trends such as the price of oil, rig count, storage volumes, global production rates, etc.

The story really isn’t about those absolute numbers but the swings. Yes: back to that same weathered acronym: the POD. The quality of life for just about everyone won’t be determined by the date of GPO but by the position they hold in the POD. A position that can change radically in a relatively short period of time…just as we’ve seen in the last dozen years.

Just consider how it affected Aubrey: the hottest oil man on the planet to voluntrially taking a dirt nap just a few years later. LOL.

[Revi]

It seems like a lot of the high flyers have come up and came down spectacularly in recent years. Remember Matt Simmons? He was a little early with his predictions, but he managed to get the world out anyway. I think we are going to see some things starting to happen very soon. Twilight in the Desert was his book about Saudi oil, and it looks like they are in trouble nowadays. What goes up must come down, despite what AdamB thinks.