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PeakOil is You

Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 06 May 2016, 09:46:26

AP - About 38 years ago I pumped a 500,000# frac down a vertical into a carbonate shale formation. That's far larger the almost all the individual fracs pumped recently and in some cases more then the total amount pumped in all the multi-stage fracs in some wells.

And while doc is right about smaller clean up fracs there is a long history of using fracs to increase productivity of tite formations that were damaged in the drilling process:

"Even though the birth of fracking began in the 1860s, the birth of modern day hydraulic fracturing began in the 1940s. In 1947, Floyd Farris of Stanolind Oil and Gas began a study on the relationship between oil and gas production output, and the amount of pressurized treatment being used on each well. This study lead to the first experiment of hydraulic fracturing, which occurred at the Hugoton gas field, located in Grant county, Kansas in 1947. In this experiment, 1,000 gallons of gelled gasoline and sand were injected into a gas producing limestone formation with a depth of 2,400 feet. This was then followed by an injection of a gel breaker. While this experiment failed to produce a significant production increase, it did mark the beginning of hydraulic fracturing.

Despite the failure in the Hugoton gas field experiment, research continued. On March 17, 1949, Halliburton conducted two commercial experiments; one in Stephens county Oklahoma, and another in Archer County, Texas. These results were much more successful. After achieving experimental success in 1949, fracking quickly became commercialized. In the 1960s Pan American Petroleum began using this drilling technique in Stephens county Oklahoma. In the 1970s, this extraction method was being used in the Piceance Basin, the San Juan Basin, the Denver Basin, and the Green River Basin."

So the 500,000# Rockman frac in 1978 was to get past damaged formation: it was an attempt to produce a formation that had never seen production in that area. BTW George Mitchell did a similar frac that same year...and he conned the govt into paying for it. The Rockman...not as clever. LOL.

And again once the proppant is pumped thru the perforation he reservoir doesn't know if it's a big frac or a small frac, a vertical well or a hz well, 1978 or 2008. Those dynamic are the same within the formation. The models used for a single frac stage in a hz well is identical to the model used in a vertical well.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 May 2016, 13:09:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')Perhaps more detail than anyone cares to hear, but who cares? :wink:


Surprised you didn't use the term skin factor in there somewhere. :wink:
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 May 2016, 13:20:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think peak oil is what is causing the economy to tank everywhere.


You mean, when peak oil happened in 2005 or so, or as it might be happening now? And by tanking, do you mean people running around buying all those new cars, and peak oil is causing this rush to buy autos?

http://www.autonews.com/article/2016010 ... rd-in-2015

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Okay we have a "glut" of oil, but why?


Higher prices made drill-baby-drill possible, and drill-baby-drill delivered the necessary technological change so that this will be going on for quite some time. Costs are coming down, and as costs come down, less productive wells can be drilled.

IHS study on well costs decreasing here:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25592

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') If the economy was going full bore and creating demand for lots of wave runners and big trucks and other nonsense it would be using all that oil and more.

Or more expensive thing, like plenty of new cars. proof in link above.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') We are so down around here that I have heard that the demand for food is down so much that a guy in the local market who cuts meat only gets 15 hours a week. Every 6th house or business is abandoned.
Is it like that where you live?


Move to a place with economic activity. Rural areas ain't it. Go to Austin Texas and be amazed by the construction going on just east of the airport. Go to Houston or Denver, and count cranes putting up new buildings.

Maine? Rural folk, lacking much in the way of a business friendly environment, relying on tourism and maybe distributing sea food. Appalachian trail hikers walking through? The country ain't Maine. Try visiting Atlanta, Washington DC, most any place in Texas, the Bay Area, Seattle, Denver, Albuquerque, Des Moines Iowa, Minneapolis You just live in a place that looks bad, doesn't mean the rest of the country looks the same.

Others in your state certainly have got the memo.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
PORTLAND, Maine — Maine was one of seven states with fewer people in 2015 than the year before, according to census estimates

http://bangordailynews.com/2015/12/22/n ... s-in-2015/

Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 06 May 2016, 17:06:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')urprised you didn't use the term skin factor in there somewhere.


I would have coupled with "adverse mobility ratio" but then everyone would quickly fall asleep (assuming they hadn't already) :lol:
The jargon in our industry is truly large and ever growing. I get a chuckle when I remember the number of times I sat around a table with a group of lawyers during one of our preps for litigation and saw the complete blank stares on their face given they weren't familiar with any of even the simplest engineering/geo lingo.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 06 May 2016, 19:38:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Try visiting Atlanta, Washington DC, most any place in Texas, the Bay Area, Seattle, Denver, Albuquerque, Des Moines Iowa, Minneapolis You just live in a place that looks bad, doesn't mean the rest of the country looks the same.


As they say, your mileage my vary. The Boston area is booming right now. Lots of construction projects. GE moving in.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby joelund » Sat 07 May 2016, 11:23:15

With only the 20 or so rigs running in the Bakken, only the sweet spots of Mountrail, McKensie, Dunn are drilled. However, the fracks are large and getting larger. Normal frack on ~10,000' lateral, 55 stage, plug and perf will use 7 million #s of sand. Hess and Whiting are estimating 1 million Bbl recoveries per well. Whiting is also boasting of a secret diverting agent (liquid maybe?) that forces the frack to all stage perforations uniformly.

Don't go in the bars in williston.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 09 May 2016, 08:14:22

Joe – OK: 7 million #'s in 55 stages = 127,000# per stage. Makes my point: compare that to the 500,000% the Rockman pumped in one stage in that vertical well over 35 years ago. If the potential had been there I could have pumped 20 such stages (10 million pounds) down the same well bore. Longer laterals and more frac stages (which really bump up costs a good bit) are required when drilling areas with lower potential. As far as diverting agents they’ve also been used for decades. Maybe Whiting has a more effective flavor…maybe not…time will tell. But just like frac’ng in general there have been relatively small incremental improvements over the decades but in general no big “step changes” for many, many years.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 09 May 2016, 12:48:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joelund', 'W')ith only the 20 or so rigs running in the Bakken, only the sweet spots of Mountrail, McKensie, Dunn are drilled. However, the fracks are large and getting larger. Normal frack on ~10,000' lateral, 55 stage, plug and perf will use 7 million #s of sand. Hess and Whiting are estimating 1 million Bbl recoveries per well. Whiting is also boasting of a secret diverting agent (liquid maybe?) that forces the frack to all stage perforations uniformly.

Don't go in the bars in williston.


The EIA had already commissioned a report about this last fall. Increasing well completion complexity, falling drilling costs, completion costs becoming a larger part of the all-in CapX and OpX.

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/drilling/
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 09 May 2016, 13:55:58

Here we go round the mulberry bush again with PStarr's "peak oil caused the credit crisis" and "every recession = peak oil" narrative.

Image
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 09 May 2016, 18:09:50

I responded the first 100 times you brought this up.

Peak oil did not cause the credit crisis. Liar loans, ARM resets, and CDOs did. How many times must the inconvenient truth of that pass in your hollow head before it sticks rather than goes out the other ear?
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 09 May 2016, 22:59:56

Lets all please play nice, insults serve no purpose, no matter who is throwing them.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 10 May 2016, 08:39:26

Maybe it's the fact that Maine is a resource based economy, or our Governor or something, but maybe the rest of the country is booming. Great... I am thinking of moving, but at my age I like the scenery and I have a job.

It's some consolation that the effects of climate change seem to be felt more acutely elsewhere. Small consolation...
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 10 May 2016, 13:16:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'H')ere we go round the mulberry bush again with PStarr's "peak oil caused the credit crisis" and "every recession = peak oil" narrative.

Image


I provided a wonderful chart and reference filled post showing why that never happened, that appears to have been vanished. is there a rule on too much data being utilized to refute inaccurate statements I missed somewhere?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 10 May 2016, 13:20:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'M')aybe it's the fact that Maine is a resource based economy, or our Governor or something, but maybe the rest of the country is booming. Great... I am thinking of moving, but at my age I like the scenery and I have a job.


Proving better than anyone else every could why economics works, and how doom is mostly a personal issue. Your friend loses his job, its a recession, you lose your, its a depression.

Unless you examine the economy outside your rural area, it is easy to see gloom and doom. That is all plenty of rural areas have. And the same reason why American children have been fleeing them for the big city for generations now.

But a single city like Austin, blowing and going, can bring up the average wage statistic for half a normal sized state, but that doesn't mean that those living in the sticks will notice.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')It's some consolation that the effects of climate change seem to be felt more acutely elsewhere. Small consolation...


Big consolation. Can you imagine how the folks owning property along the Outer Banks are going to feel when a century from now they might have to watch the ocean having gotten a little closer? They might be more than a little worried then I bet...
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 10 May 2016, 14:00:55

Adam - "Can you imagine how the folks owning property along the Outer Banks are going to feel when a century from now they might have to watch the ocean having gotten a little closer? They might be more than a little worried then I bet..." And that's a point I've made repeatedly: no one owning beach front property today will see the loss in a 100 years because they'll be dead. LOL. Even a baby born today won't see much of a change between age 20 and 60. Which isn't to minimize the loss of the shoreline. But as far as impacting an individual today they won't really see much of a change in their life time. Of course that's not focusing on the development of more severe weather in some areas. But your comment focuses on SLR and not changes in weather patterns. OTOH many tens of millions have suffered from severe weather events long before GHG production became a factor. Such as the greatest loss of life from a hurricane that hit Texas more then 100 years ago.

But as I've said before perhaps I have a different attitude having grown up living below sea level in Nawlins which will eventually sink into the GOM even if there were never a global SLR.
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