[tita]

Pop - Of course we can live on very much less luxury than we do. And yes, transport is a luxury we spend a lot on. This doesn't mean that there is no economy behind it. Swiss watches employs thousands of people to make expensive watches. Something that only a few people can afford, and only work when you have enough rich people willing to buy them. And from an african POV, the way we use cars for individual transport is the same way as we see very rich people buying these watches.

When the sales of these watches fall, it has a lot of consequences in just the swiss industry. But when the sales of the car industry fall? Well, it happened only very briefly in 1973 and 1980 and 2008. The last one being the worse, because like you say car is used in a more luxury way than before. Not sure about the consequences, but it implies quite a lot more people than just a small country like switzerland.

[ROCKMAN]

tita - Which brings us back to what folks CAN DO vs WILL DO. very few folks give up what they want to do r have until they are forced to. There's not single person on this site that doesn't consume fossil fuel they WANT TO CONSUME as opposed to what they MUST CONSUME. It might not be a huge amount for some but whatever it is could still be classified as an luxury by some.

[Revi]

I think the danger of peak oil won't pass until we have non fossil fuel substitutes for most of what we do. That's going to be a while.

There's a new way of living that is happening now. My nephews and nieces don't have cars and don't want them. I don't know if they even have drivers licenses. They don't want to live in our world. I'm pretty sure they all have cell phones, though.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - But here's the point: after we reach PO and there's much less affordable fossil fuels what will those "substitutes" cost the economies...both US and global. There seems to be a general assumption that when we run low on fossil fuels suddenly we'll be flooded with substitutes that cost considerably less. Why? We just went thru a fairly long period of high oil prices (but continued relatively low NG/coal prices) and no great surge of alternative energy. Except for wind in Texas, of course. But that weren't cheap. LOL. The state alone paid $7 BILLION in tax payer monies to expand the grid so we could ship the wind power from where it's generated to where it's consumed. Again, made very good long term sense but still not low cost.

So is the assumption that as we get closer to global PO the price of oil will fall? That makes no sense. And as we approach GPO will the price of the alts (for which there should be greater demand) decline? trhat'snot how the free market works: less competition and higher demand = higher prices. If it works that way with oil and eggs why wouldn't the pricing dynamics be the same with the alts?

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gain as long as there's no hard definition of "significant" it remains a relative proposition.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'P')op - Of course we can live on very much less luxury than we do. And yes, transport is a luxury we spend a lot on. This doesn't mean that there is no economy behind it.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')fter all the discussion we had he about the Red Queen's Race back in 2012-2014 I came to the conclusion that no matter what in geologic terms fracking will be a decade scale flash in the pan.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')If we get 15 or 20 years of additional growth in the oil supply beyond the 2005 peak in conventional oil, that will be great.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'P')op - Of course we can live on very much less luxury than we do. And yes, transport is a luxury we spend a lot on. This doesn't mean that there is no economy behind it.

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - True. Too many folks think philosophies or business plans control the oil patch. It's really just driven by the economics. Not just the evonomies of individual wells but the impact on pubco stock prices by giving the impression of growing asset value.

If oil prices get high again the shales will get hot again. And stay hot until the remaining locations are drilled up. That might be 5 years of 25 years but it will happen.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')fter all the discussion we had he about the Red Queen's Race back in 2012-2014 I came to the conclusion that no matter what in geologic terms fracking will be a decade scale flash in the pan.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')If oil prices get high again the shales will get hot again. And stay hot until the remaining locations are drilled up. That might be 5 years of 25 years but it will happen.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Nice evasion and cherry picking but I made it clear in that post that I was referring to the LTO we get from tight shale formations using modern techniques.

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - "Considering how fast production ramped up in just a couple of years, on prices quite a bit lower than the 2008 maximum, it probably wouldn't take even that much to kick off the next ballgame." True: the US pubcos (and their creditors) are looking for any opportunity to rekindle the process. But they need to do it very fast: in another couple of years many of the surviving companies today won't be around.

As far as the frac’ng process the definition posted fits the same for a vertical well drilled in 1955 and a horizontal Eagle Ford Shale well drilled in 2015. There has been some tweaking of the fluid chemistry but nothing very radical. And while some new down hole mechanical systems had to be developed to frac hz wells the frac dynamic once pumped into the formation hasn’t changed in more than 50 years: the rocks don’t care how the pressure and proppants got there. LOL.

So let’s focus on the horizontal drilling aspect. That was perfected in the late 90’s primarily in the Austin Chalk formation in Texas. In fact AC hz wells were drilled as far or further than most recent shale wells. Another interesting aspect of the AC: drilling multiple h laterals from the same vertical wells became common…rather rare in the recent shale boom. Fortunately the AC has much natural fractures so frac’ng was seldom used. But the hz well paths were drilled in both the AC and EFS for the same reason: to increase the exposure of the formations to the well bore. The vertical thickness of either formation was typically less than 100’. By drilling hz laterals thousands of feet long mimic drilling dozens of vertical well which allowed a very much improved probability of hitting any of the nearly vertical fracture systems.

[AdamB]

Looks like the EIA is on the ball again, quantifying how much of our natural gas abundance is coming through the use of hydraulic fracturing.

Half of US oil:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25372

2/3's of natural gas:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26112

Our tax dollars at work, cutting through the crap of speculation and arm waving. Shale revolution indeed.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - "Considering how fast production ramped up in just a couple of years, on prices quite a bit lower than the 2008 maximum, it probably wouldn't take even that much to kick off the next ballgame." True: the US pubcos (and their creditors) are looking for any opportunity to rekindle the process. But they need to do it very fast: in another couple of years many of the surviving companies today won't be around.

As far as the frac’ng process the definition posted fits the same for a vertical well drilled in 1955 and a horizontal Eagle Ford Shale well drilled in 2015.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ydraulic fracturing isn't drilling. It is a completion technology. And regardless of whether or not it is used in a vertical well, or a horizontal one, its purpose is generally the same. Today, just as it was back when boomers were born, about to unleash their consumerist ideology upon the world....

Increase cross sectional flow area.

[AirlinePilot]

I think most of us here would agree that the fracking going on pre 2000 was nothing near the scale of what we are seeing post 120$/bbl oil. The fracking today is only happening because of high priced crude. Prior to these high prices fracking was nothing more than a special purpose technique for wells which required its use. I.E. on a much lower scale of total production than what we see today in the Bakken etc.

For Rockman and rockdoc....please correct me if that is not a valid assumption.

[Revi]

I think peak oil is what is causing the economy to tank everywhere. Okay we have a "glut" of oil, but why? If the economy was going full bore and creating demand for lots of wave runners and big trucks and other nonsense it would be using all that oil and more. We are so down around here that I have heard that the demand for food is down so much that a guy in the local market who cuts meat only gets 15 hours a week. Every 6th house or business is abandoned.
Is it like that where you live?

[Pops]

Thanks for the lesson on rocks, rocks!

The obvious reason for making $10 million dollar holes is that $1 million dollar holes are over, extinct.

H drilling and fracking a shale well with a mile of contact in a shale layer 2 miles down and only 50' thick is a pretty amazing thing. The mobilization and tech to produce the frack boom is pretty awesome. But the mere fact the boom happened, is proof enough of the conventional peak. Again, why make $10M holes if $1M holes would do?

I have no idea if the same will happen elsewhere, but the EIA reference case from last year was for the US boom to peak 2020-ish then tail off over the following decade. Pretty well just as Tanada said.

The variable will be supply/demand as always. If demand comes roaring back, the price will jump and so will drilling and the local peak will come faster. If demand rises slower, so will price and drilling will stay confined closer to the sweetie places.

But as ever, depletion and decline continues. Lower demand growth means production will continue to fall and even eventual high price won't be able to bring it back to the previous level.

IOW, even $10M holes will be become extinct
.