by DesuMaiden » Mon 04 Apr 2016, 17:30:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'F')WIW, there was a past that was primarily agrarian, but the world population was much smaller then. There are other issues to consider, such as infant mortality rates, etc.
I never said the present population is sustainable...it is not. We have long exceeded the long-term carrying capacity of the Earth. It is just that it is unlikely there will be a sudden die off. More likely, a gradual decline in population until our population goes back down to levels during the Pathelolic. Eventually, I believe humans may go extinct...but that's probably centuries to millennia from now. I doubt humans will become extinct in a few decades...
But I doubt we will never become extinct...all species eventually become extinct. But unlike most species, our extinction will be due to our own undoing...we are a victim of our own success. We...as humans...are too clever and powerful for our own good. Most other species become extinct because of environmental reasons that out of their control...on the other hand, we may become extinct because we end up destroying ourselves with our excessive technological prowess.
But most likely, we will end up destroying most of the other life forms on the planet before we finally become extinct. I do believe Homo sapiens is the most destructive species known in the fossil record. Wherever mankind spread across the globe, a spasm of extinctions followed.
Of course, if business as usual continues (which it most likely will), we will become extinct sooner rather than latter. Unlike the collapse of previous civilizations, we ain't going to build another more glorious civilization after this one collapses. We...Homo sapiens...will eventually decend into Olduvai Gorge. In other words, we are going to slowly regress back to the Stone Age, and then finally extinction.
The reason I doubt we will be able to quietly go back to the 1700 AD is because back in the 1700s, there was still plenty of resources to exploit. But during the past three hundred years, thanks to the use of fossil fuels, we have depleted and exhausted almost all of the Earth's nonrenewable, finite and irreplaceable resources.
Let me give you an example. In previous iron-using civilizations (like the Romans, Greeks, and etc), they used high-quality, easy-to-mine iron ore to produce steel. However, over the centuries, all of the high-quality, easy-to-mine iron ore has been gradually used up. Today, in order to produce steel, we must mine low-quality iron-ore from difficult-to-access places that require a huge amount of fossil fuel machinery for the mining, processing and etc of the iron ore. As fossil fuels go into decline over the next couple of decades, our ability to go after such iron ore becomes more and more limited. Eventually, as such, our ability to utilize iron-based technology becomes more restricted and limited. Eventually, we might no longer have access to anymore iron. And since iron is another irreplaceable resource, this will result in us having to eventually have to go back the Stone Age.
Of course, this doesn't worry me too much because I doubt I will see civilization descend back to the Stone Age in my life time. But there is a very high probability people centuries from now might have to go back to the Stone Age due to the lack of accessibility of iron ore.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.