[americandream]

Population is a function of material conditions and the need for population (think about this before asking) is a function of reason.

Conditions being on all fours, a state of equilibrium can be assisted into place. Just as can attending to the necessary risks of climate and limits to modernity (again, think about this as it has a lot more going on.)

[onlooker]

"Yeah, you are right, but it is better to accept reality, and figure out a way to adapt to a dystopian future...rather than delude one's self into thinking that everything is perfectly fine, and there is nothing to worry about. Taking steps to prepare for a chaotic future is better than doing nothing until it is too late to prepare." You hit it on the nail Desu. One can ignore reality but one cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality. Sooner or later not preparing and confronting proactively our reality will just allow this reality to hits us that much harder.

[DesuMaiden]

Onlooker, look at it this way...most people are reluctant to change their life styles. That's why they think technological innovation will magically solve all of our problems, and that business as usual can continue indefinitely. They say, "oh, free energy is going to solve all of our energy problems...oh if we run out of a resource, we can always find a replacement for that resource" or some other very naive thinking along those lines. It requires more courage to accept the fact that business as usual cannot continue for more than a few more decades (at most)--let alone indefinitely--and we need to implement major changes in our life style if most of us are to survive.

Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of society has unwavering faith that technology will solve all of the problems we are facing because they have been conditioned from birth to believe this myth. I believe many people I've talked to show unbelievable arrogance when they can't even contemplate the possibility that business as usual cannot last for much longer...like John Michael Greer said "people now worship the religion of progress"

That is exactly right...people now believe in never-ending progress as their new religion. Most people have become so selfish and hedonistic that they will have a very difficult time surviving a society of net energy decline...

A planet that is becoming ever-more crowded with less and less resources for the ever-growing population will inevitably have an unpleasant outcome. More conflict over the ever-scarcer resources on this planet will ensure over the coming decades.

[onlooker]

All very true Desu. What is more is that people are afraid of this uncertain future. I believe deep down many do suspect we are reaching hard limits. Yet the raw fear of living a unpredictable stage in their lives that may end their life prematurely or at best make their existence much more precarious instills this fear. I mean one sees it in the inevitable process of aging as people demonstrate fear of aging and of death. I think this is all quite natural. In the larger scope of things is where your points are very valid, that great masses of people have bought into the myth of human progress as inevitable and equate that progress with technology and better standards of living. Well, this is now unrealistic as our trajectory is leading us not to a technotopia but a regression to more primitive ways of living as civilization withers and as death rates skyrocket. Even now the greatest worry is how much more damage we are capable on inflicting on the planet especially in regards to global warming. So we stand on the cusp of making the future habitability on Earth of most life forms quite questionable. We may have passed in fact that threshold already as evidenced by the ongoing 6th Great Mass Extinction, feedbacks starting to activate in climate change and the vast contamination of our planet.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'A')ll very true Desu. What is more is that people are afraid of this uncertain future. I believe deep down many do suspect we are reaching hard limits. Yet the raw fear of living a unpredictable stage in their lives that may end their life prematurely or at best make their existence much more precarious instills this fear. I mean one sees it in the inevitable process of aging as people demonstrate fear of aging and of death. I think this is all quite natural. In the larger scope of things is where your points are very valid, that great masses of people have bought into the myth of human progress as inevitable and equate that progress with technology and better standards of living. Well, this is now unrealistic as our trajectory is leading us not to a technotopia but a regression to more primitive ways of living as civilization withers and as death rates skyrocket. Even now the greatest worry is how much more damage we are capable on inflicting on the planet especially in regards to global warming. So we stand on the cusp of making the future habitability on Earth of most life forms quite questionable. We may have passed in fact that threshold already as evidenced by the ongoing 6th Great Mass Extinction, feedbacks starting to activate in climate change and the vast contamination of our planet.

[americandream]

Debt is just a forwardisation mechanism in capitalism and no more. But to expect a set of social relations dependent on exchange to contemplate its own demise whether by synthesis or extinguishment as a consequence of that exchange, is bizarre.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'D')ebt is just a forwardisation mechanism in capitalism and no more. But to expect a set of social relations dependent on exchange to contemplate its own demise whether by synthesis or extinguishment as a consequence of that exchange, is bizarre.

[KaiserJeep]

Desu, I just do not expect anything to collapse, ever.

The primary means of extending the remaining supplies of fossil fuels will be self-imposed efficiencies brought about by the cost of energy.

For example, the typical vehicle should be sized for the typical occupancy of 1-2 people and less than 100 lbs of cargo. The vehicle itself, whether electric or fuel-powered, need weigh no more than 500 lbs (plus a payload of occupants and cargo limited to another 500 lbs) and travel no faster than 35 mph. No more V-8's, V-6's or 4 cylinder engines - try 1-2, or better yet, a BEV.

Most electricity on the grid is wasted. Security lighting is an example of an unnecessary use of power. Perfectly fine electronic sensors exist which can detect mammals and birds by body heat alone - there is no need to make the planet glow into space from the nightside. Nor do empty rooms in your house need illumination - or the one you are sitting in for that matter. The house processor should track the position of all occupants and allow illumination via the nearest lamp, but only to voice command of an authorized occupant.

Space heating and air conditioning are other examples of wasted energy. It is much more economical to heat or cool the clothing a person is wearing rather than the space they live in. Properly designed structures also maintain fairly constant temperatures without periodic energy inputs. Simply require all structures to be built or retro-fitted to the Passive House standards before they can be sold. Non-compliant structures cannot be sold and must be recycled. Hello, tiny house - people can live quite comfortably in less than 200 square feet per person.

Our civilization can actually be run on approximately 1/4th the present level of energy. After the imposition of energy reduction standards that force the re-implementation of much of our existing infrastructure, vehicles, and residences, we could live comfortably on 1/20th to 1/10th the present amount of power.

All of a sudden, a 100% renewable power scenario becomes viable - which it is not today.

These types of revolutionary changes will come from non-mainstream politicians such as Teddy Roosevelt, Ross Perot, Donald Trump, or Bernie Sanders. So vote early and vote often in the next election.

Don't become emotionally invested in collapse, either. It just will never happen IMHO. Change yes, collapse no.

[onlooker]

Yeah Kaiser sure. I am sure you believe this too. http://singularityhub.com/2014/07/13/th ... w.facebook
The World in 2025” Predicts Abundant Solar Power and Food, Tailored Drugs, Gene Therapies
For a few million maybe. The rest of the billions I do not think so. Full blown collapse

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'D')ebt is just a forwardisation mechanism in capitalism and no more. But to expect a set of social relations dependent on exchange to contemplate its own demise whether by synthesis or extinguishment as a consequence of that exchange, is bizarre.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')eah Kaiser sure. I am sure you believe this too. http://singularityhub.com/2014/07/13/th ... w.facebook
The World in 2025” Predicts Abundant Solar Power and Food, Tailored Drugs, Gene Therapies
For a few million maybe. The rest of the billions I do not think so. Full blown collapse

[SeaGypsy]

Almost the opposite of that looks most likely, at current pace 90% of people will have access to electricity by 2040, sanitation is improving throughout the developing world & there is no shortage of the key inputs for mass agriculture except water, which suffers from waste like all the other key resources do. Unfortunately the feedstock for electricity & agriculture looks to be coal & NG, so AGW continues to become a more pressing problem.

[onlooker]

I do not think that is right Sea. First of all how will consumers in poor countries even afford this access to electricity. Oil is needed to mine and transport the NG and Coal. Oil that is becoming more expensive and difficult to access. Also, soil erosion continues apace which will signify less land to cultivate crops. Oh and Phosphate is a key resource which may seem steep declines. I do not see how you can get around the problem of diminishing fresh water supplies. Water filtration systems are expensive as are Desalination plants and all run on energy which last time I check costs money. At least you account for AGW which will I think be a huge problem in Subtropical regions by 2040.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I') do not think that is right Sea. First of all how will consumers in poor countries even afford this access to electricity. Oil is needed to mine and transport the NG and Coal. Oil that is becoming more expensive and difficult to access. Also, soil erosion continues apace which will signify less land to cultivate crops. Oh and Phosphate is a key resource which may seem steep declines. I do not see how you can get around the problem of diminishing fresh water supplies. Water filtration systems are expensive as are Desalination plants and all run on energy which last time I check costs money. At least you account for AGW which will I think be a huge problem in Subtropical regions by 2040.

[onlooker]

"Of course, the end of the fossil fuel era, despite the temporary hardships it might bring, will also bring us benefits like more local community, healthier food, more nature to enjoy and etc."
Yes, this is this hope that once our ability afforded by fossil fuels to create planet wide devastation ends, hopefully the people by then will adjust their lifestyles to be as Earth friendly and sustainable as possible to give the chance for the Earth to heal and for humanity and other creatures to have the opportunity to continue to dwell on this planet.

[jedrider]

Yes, but you are on the deck of the Titanic, so are you going to dance or jump into the icy water?

I'm dancing

Only benefit, I can see of being aware is that the trappings of me, me, weigh much less when you know what's ahead and what's causing it.

[Lore]

Most people are not clueless, they just don't want to think about things they don't don't like to think about. It's called "whistling past the graveyard".

[Cog]

I just want three things and I will be fine with this lower lifestyle deal.

Beer
Central Air
Internet

As long as those things can be guaranteed to me, I'm good with all the rest of it.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '&')quot;Of course, the end of the fossil fuel era, despite the temporary hardships it might bring, will also bring us benefits like more local community, healthier food, more nature to enjoy and etc."
Yes, this is this hope that once our ability afforded by fossil fuels to create planet wide devastation ends, hopefully the people by then will adjust their lifestyles to be as Earth friendly and sustainable as possible to give the chance for the Earth to heal and for humanity and other creatures to have the opportunity to continue to dwell on this planet.

[ralfy]

FWIW, there was a past that was primarily agrarian, but the world population was much smaller then. There are other issues to consider, such as infant mortality rates, etc.