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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Survivor Peak Oil: Outwit, Outplay, Outlast.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Postby The_Toecutter » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 03:52:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')k, what causes growth, and what is the real problem? The answer to that question, for me, is rooted in each individual's motive and in society's unwritten laws. For example, many solutions I hear floated around to decrease oil consumption are “fuel economy must increase” or “people must drive less” or “the price of fuel must increase”. The flaw with such solutions is while the middle class is required, en mass, to pay dearly for such solutions., the wealthy and the ruling elite are exempt from it, due to their greater access to resources and political power. While you may be driving a hybrid and turning down your thermostat, to do your part to conserve energy, The President will be chauffeured and pampered around in Air Force One, so that he can congratulate you and give you a medal, using far more energy than you saved in the process.


You make a lot of good points. In a sustainable society, the wealthiest of society will have to have a drastically reduced share of the pie, otherwise everyone suffers, sort of like today.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o for me, when the profit motive remains the core value system both on an individual and at the societal level, then growth will always be present. The only time no growth in the steady state would be viable is when there is no profit motive, and everyone lives within the limits that they find themselves in. They do not seek to increase their own wealth beyond what is necessary to live a fulfilling life; and they give to others what they do not need, and sometimes do need, freely.


This is not necessarily true. A profit driven society can co-exist with reduced consumption and net zero growth. Instead of shipping entire goods like computers or televisions long distances, for example, blueprints might be sent via computer on how to duplicate the parts locally and a small enterprise could assemble the product. Build the product to last longer than normal in an effort to conserve resources? You reduce consumption. You can still make a profit, even though the economy may not be growing in size since just enough goods are being made to replace what is no longer in operation, with having what is no longer in operation recyled instead of trashed. Historically, luxuries have only existed for a small number of wealthy elites as the peasants did without and did all the work. Depending on which type of post peak scenario we have, this doesn't have to be the case if we move from a more domination-oriented society to a more partnership-oriented society. Instead of buying junk we don't use and occupying ourselves with endless products, we should instead pick a few things and stick to those if we even choose to pick anything at all. A move away from advertising is needed and a move towards examining the implications of what you purchase is needed for some semblence of a consumer society to continue in the future.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince that is virtually impossible, and has never happened in mankind’s history, nor is it likely to occur in the future, growth will always be present, and so resource wars and economic collapse occur to rebalance and redistribute growth/power/wealth/success, and is a long term consequence of motive.


Sadly, you are completely correct. Key word, 'virtually' impossible. It doesn't mean that it is. In our history, human beings have never been anywhere near as educated as they are today, either. Education and being aware of the consequences of what is consumed and taking responsibility for those consequences on individual, government, and corporate levels could make this a reality. But again, I don't expect humanity to impress me anytime soon. Doesn't mean that an attempt would be worthless though.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Postby Doly » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 04:36:36

Growth hasn't always been present in every society. There have been cultures that have been generally content with what they had, with no expansionist ambitions. This isn't necessarily static: think about the Chinese, who have the longest surviving civilization and have recently had a successful population control method.
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Postby The_Toecutter » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 05:09:36

Their method was nothing short of totalitarianism. There are better ways to control population, such as improving living standards, providing education, and making it so children are economic burdens instead of assets by being a developed enough nation that children aren't needed to care for the parents in old age or provide cheap labor thus relegating them to be economic burdens instead of assets. Note how in America, Canada, Australia, Western Europe and in Japan, the birth rates are negative! It can also be argued that the Chinese method has created more problems than it supposedly solved(ie. disproportionate ratio of males to females sparking sex trade, thousands of deaths, reduced personal freedom, ect.).
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Postby Ludi » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 07:30:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'O')k so the problem is growth.

Monte says that any species will multiply until it reaches the limits or goes above the limits and then nature will cull us back.

Ludi says that some cultures have managed to avoid unlimited growth and therefore (I presume) avoid this cycle of boom and bust. (sorry for quoting Ludi I hope you don't mind)

I found this article on the Tukano tribe. It suggests that they knew about how they population would have an effect on the environment. Here is the link to the article (well actually its an extract from a book). You only need to read the bit entitled 'The Tukano: A Primal Adaptation'.

I was wondering if this is an example of people being able to avoid the boom and bust through culture? Maybe there is some hope??? Any comments?


Many, if not most, indigenous populations have/had some methods for limiting their population, because their territories were finite and they were very aware of the cost of fighting with neighboring tribes.
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Postby jimmydean » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 11:31:40

Posters here have the advantage of a head start on the upcoming oil based economic crisis but probably most of us have done little so far in our lives to prepare for it.

Such is human nature. We tend to continue our current paths at all costs until a crisis happens that forces us to change.

Maybe it's at least time to plan a peak oil lifestyle strategy and know the indicators that would set that plan in motion.
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Postby MonteQuest » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 11:36:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('avo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')atisfied and appreciative clients. :-D


If you don't mind telling, I'd be interested in knowing what business you're in; I'd like to know what profession goes along with your many insightful posts here.


My background is that of a National Park Ranger, but currently I work as a construction foreman doing custom home constrruction and remodeling. I didn't say that they necessarily go along, but they do listen. For the most part, I would say it pretty much runs the gambit of what we see here, sans the ad hominem attacks. 8) If you stay way from Mad Max scenarios, which I do here and in public, I find you get a better audience.
And as the price of gas goes up, it garners more disciples.

I find that people who have "attitudes" don't go along. Denial and ignorance, I guess.
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Postby MonteQuest » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 11:43:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'M')any, if not most, indigenous populations have/had some methods for limiting their population, because their territories were finite and they were very aware of the cost of fighting with neighboring tribes.


Yes, many indigenous cultures were forced by pure survival necessities to limit their population. They never had technology to create a phantom carrying capacity. It's the bloom and crash populations that always grow beyond the support. We are one of latter.
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Postby avo » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 13:48:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('avo', 'I')f you don't mind telling, I'd be interested in knowing what business you're in; I'd like to know what profession goes along with your many insightful posts here.


My background is that of a National Park Ranger, but currently I work as a construction foreman doing custom home constrruction and remodeling.


Monte, thanks for the info. There seems to be a very broad spectrum of interests, backgrounds, professions, etc, of the people posting here, and overall I've been impressed with the quality of writing and analysis that I've found. Having woken from the consensus trance only six weeks ago, I've been playing catch-up, and what I've found here has been invaluable.

Thanks.

Avo
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Postby MonteQuest » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 16:29:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('avo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('avo', 'I')f you don't mind telling, I'd be interested in knowing what business you're in; I'd like to know what profession goes along with your many insightful posts here.


My background is that of a National Park Ranger, but currently I work as a construction foreman doing custom home constrruction and remodeling.


Monte, thanks for the info. There seems to be a very broad spectrum of interests, backgrounds, professions, etc, of the people posting here, and overall I've been impressed with the quality of writing and analysis that I've found. Having woken from the consensus trance only six weeks ago, I've been playing catch-up, and what I've found here has been invaluable.

Thanks.

Avo


You are most welcome. Over the last 30 years, I have been involved in ecological and environmental issues for the NPS, US Forest Service, and US Fish and Wildlife. My training is mostly in resource management and ecology. A rock climbing/SAR accident put me out of law enforcement/resource management with the NPS.
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Postby holmes » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 19:00:02

hello avo. I like your common sense. welcome. i am an ahole (i think from anger from whats going on) but that doesnt mean im not a nice fella.

- "discontent is the first step in the progress of a man or a nation".
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Postby avo » Fri 08 Jul 2005, 02:02:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'h')ello avo. I like your common sense. welcome.


Thanks!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', ' ')i am an ahole (i think from anger from whats going on)


Hey, I'm pretty pissed myself. I'm still trying to come to terms with the fact that the whole political/economic/scientific establishment (of which I am a part) has dropped the fucking ball so spectacularly.

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Postby ohanian » Fri 08 Jul 2005, 03:24:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', ' ')Note how in America, Canada, Australia, Western Europe and in Japan, the birth rates are negative! It can also be argued that the Chinese method has created more problems than it supposedly solved(ie. disproportionate ratio of males to females sparking sex trade, thousands of deaths, reduced personal freedom, ect.).


Bullshit! There are no countries in the world where the birth rate is negative.


It is physically impossible to give birth to a negative number of babies. And I stake my life on the previous statement.
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Postby The_Toecutter » Fri 08 Jul 2005, 04:54:11

Maybe I should correct myself: the population growth of the non-immigrant population is negative due to the birthrate being lower than the death rate. That's basically what I was trying to get at.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 02:27:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'M')aybe I should correct myself: the population growth of the non-immigrant population is negative due to the birthrate being lower than the death rate. That's basically what I was trying to get at.


Sorry, but due to population demographics, it is not.

Population growth rate:
0.92% (2005 est.)
Birth rate:
14.14 births/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Death rate:
8.25 deaths/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Net migration rate:
3.31 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2005 est.)

Fertility rate, on the other hand is barely replacement. It will take a few years for this to move through the population.

Total fertility rate:
2.08 children born/woman (2005 est.)
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Postby The_Toecutter » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 03:55:48

Ahh, it changed again, along with the fact I used the wrong terms. Last I checked was a few years back.

Anyway, here's the stats for Europe:

http://www.overpopulation.com/faq/Basic_Information/total_fertility_rate/europe.html

In 1998 Europe and the New Independent States' total fertility rate was 1.5. The chart below gives the total fertility rate for all countries of Europe and the New Independent States. The thumbnail map to the right gives the same information in graphical form.

You could map a correlation between higher living standard and lower fertility rate.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Postby MonteQuest » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 13:46:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'A')hh, it changed again, along with the fact I used the wrong terms. Last I checked was a few years back.

Anyway, here's the stats for Europe:

http://www.overpopulation.com/faq/Basic_Information/total_fertility_rate/europe.html


Again, demographics have the upper hand. Of the countries listed below, only Germany's population is having a net decline.

United Kingdom:

Population growth rate: 0.29% (2004 est.)
Birth rate: 10.88 births/1,000
Death rate: 10.19 deaths/1,000
Net migration rate: 2.19 migrant(s)/1,000

Germany:

Population growth rate: 0.02% (2004 est.)
Birth rate: 8.45 births/1,000
Death rate: 10.44 deaths/1,000
Net migration rate: 2.18 migrant(s)/1,000

France:

Population growth rate: 0.39% (2004 est.)
Birth rate: 12.34 births/1,000
Death rate: 9.06 deaths/1,000
Net migration rate: 0.66 migrant(s)/1,000

Spain:

Population growth rate: 0.16% (2004 est.)
Birth rate: 10.11 births/1,000
Death rate: 9.55 deaths/1,000
Net migration rate: 0.99 migrant(s)/1,000

Netherlands:

Population growth rate: 0.57% (2004 est.)
Birth rate: 11.41 births/1,000
Death rate: 8.67 deaths/1,000
Net migration rate: 2.91 migrant(s)/1,000

Sweden:

Population growth rate: 0.18% (2004 est.)
Birth rate: 10.46 births/1,000
Death rate: 10.38 deaths/1,000
Net migration rate: 1.67 migrant(s)/1,000

Switzerland:

Population growth rate: 0.54% (2004 est.)
Birth rate: 9.83 births/1,000
Death rate: 8.44 deaths/1,000
Net migration rate: 4.05 migrant(s)/1,000
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Postby holmes » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 15:59:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('avo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'h')ello avo. I like your common sense. welcome.


Thanks!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', ' ')i am an ahole (i think from anger from whats going on)


Hey, I'm pretty pissed myself. I'm still trying to come to terms with the fact that the whole political/economic/scientific establishment (of which I am a part) has dropped the ball so %*spectacularly.

Avo

hey avo dont sweat it bud. This is how bad it is: In my small town last night some scumbag went into my truck and stole my toolbox. My nice toolbox. I made the mistake of not locking one of my doors(tired from working all week and nights and weekends). You see how twisted it is avo, Its now OUR fault when we get robbed because WE did not lock our door. AND ITS NOT EVEN THE END OF THE OIL YET. Thats why these drools who think everything will go fine are stupid dumb %*. Thats all they are, nothing else. So I have been talking with some leos and firemen and folks in the community most of these jackings are white trash crystal meth scum. So if any filthy king wants to take our guns away I say shoot all the bastards. I CANNOT WAIT FOR CIVIL WAR. Ill start wasting the junkies first and the punks who support them.
and i live in a small "nice" nw town. The whole country is cahnging exponentially.
LOL. yeah halfway down the backside of the curve and all will be fine. *% off creeps. And if i caught the * i would have to kill the * and bury the body. cuz the "liberal" laws back the scum criminals. Its bad. no one can prve otherwise. the alice in wonderland *tards. Eat my ass yall. your utopia is in your small little creepy mind. There is not alternative energy source to keep your dysfunction going. It will keep getting worse. OVER BREEDING #1 root cause of all problems.

[edited for profanity by MQ} :-D
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Postby somethingtosay » Sat 09 Jul 2005, 17:07:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('avo', '
')Hey, I'm pretty pissed myself. I'm still trying to come to terms with the fact that the whole political/economic/scientific establishment (of which I am a part) has dropped the fucking ball so spectacularly.

Avo


Yes , it is bizzare with all the brainpower in the worlds Universities / research orgs / Corporate labs / Government facilities, none of them are aware of the coming difficulties or are attempting to change the course the world economy/politics is on. The scientific community, as a group, are in denial. Bizzare.

I have a Mech Eng degree myself, from 19 years ago, and in 4 years of study only 1 proffessor, actually talked about the oil supply issues. He spent 1 hr on oil depletion and I forgot about his message until 5 years ago. It really makes me wonder what the world's post secondary education system has been created for if they cannot see nor understand the coming storm.
Welcome to the second foundation.
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Postby some_guy282 » Sun 10 Jul 2005, 18:23:42

This talk of net population growth is making me think of consequences for the third world. As industrialized nations like the US and members of the EU find it increasingly harder to take care of their own citizens, they're likely to greatly reduce the amount of immigrants they accept or close their borders entirely. This will make overpopulation in the third world even worse.

A Peak Oil induced economic downturn in first world countries could also greatly affect some countries. I live in NYC, and I recently saw a segment on the news about money wiring services like Western Union. The segment talked about increases in fraud. Here in NYC those money wiring places are big business. There are a lot of immigrants, especially from various caribbeam islands. Most of these people send a portion of their wages back home to their families. As they lose their jobs, the checks will stop coming... part of the economic domino effect. Outwit, outplay, outlast indeed...
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Postby The_Toecutter » Sun 10 Jul 2005, 19:17:26

I stand corrected, Montequest. I'm wondering why I thought that. Maybe projected future population growth of the non-immigrant population for these is negative?

Even still, the growth rates of 1st world nations are much lower than 3rd world nations, and a positive correlation can be established between how poor a country's quality of life is on the UN quality of life index and how high their population growth rate is.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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