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Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 20:05:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')FWIW, there are economists that argue that we will see chronic financial crisis due to large amounts of debt. They will likely not look at things like energy returns because economics usually involves money for indicators.


This place is peakoil.com, not badfinance.net

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')Similarly, geologists will argue that peak oil is inevitable (for obvious reasons) but will not be able to give the timing as that's dependent on other factors, such as the ability to generate more debt in order to sustain diminishing returns.


Rockman tends to say that POD matters. And I haven't noticed him mentioning a number of debt...if I recall, he says that his company wasn't doing debt? So if some companies don't need to borrow, why are you focused on borrowed money? The world isn't borrowing that much money to DRILL stuff, it is borrowing money to pay pensions, build militaries, feed folks, hand out workers comp money. You do know this is peakoil.com right, and not borrowingmoneyisevil.info?
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 20:07:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')reveals the threat of another global financial crisis.


Sounds like a conversation for globalfinancialcrisis.org, around here we are being amazed at how peak oil has led to higher production and lower fuel prices.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 20:11:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')The problem is that the peak and decline comes after only a few years. That's what you should in earlier graphs.


Are you sure? Seems like when the US made a run for peak #2, it did it nearly half a century at the one Hubbert predicted. Doesn't sound like "only a few years to me". Sounds like.. "might be another half century before we'll know for sure".
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby ennui2 » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 20:19:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')reveals the threat of another global financial crisis.


Sounds like a conversation for globalfinancialcrisis.org, around here we are being amazed at how peak oil has led to higher production and lower fuel prices.


And if you hang out in Gail's blog or PeakProsperity, that's the overall theme. It's almost all economics-talk.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 22:22:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Let's track my Post Peak Oil: The Slow Decline and RGR's "the market will respond" and see who is right. I wrote mine back in Dec 2004 and so far I have been spot on.


Looks like Mr reservegrowth won this one, unless your scheme included low prices and millions of barrels a day more because peak...it didn't happen when this was written!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')The market cannot anticipate what we have no way of knowing.


It didn't need to. Capital will go where capital goes, such are the workings of the invisible hand. And guess what? The market figured it out anyway!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')The decline rate and the URR"S.


..and the industry folks knew more about this as well...and worse yet...took advantage of those market forces when they came along and...how was it Adam Sieminski put it, something you undoubtedly predicted at least once before, based on your penchant for claiming you didn't say things that you said in this very thread, I have to give you credit for seeing these things elsewhere and I haven't seen those threads, so you MUST have know THIS was going to be said, right? Feel free to point me wherever that might be, and I'll get you on the "high credibility" list along with the industry folks, and maybe ralfy if he can show he isn't a monday morning quarterback.

The killer quote from a real energy information expert:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski explained in a conference call to reporters on Tuesday, “That is the largest single-year growth in U.S. production all the way back to the drake oil well in Titusville, Pennsylvania in 1859.”

http://www.eagleenergycore.com/oil-prod ... s-history/


Did you ever write in your book, or on this website, that this was about to happen? Was a high liklihood? Or the reason why? (Sarah Palin got it right, so surely those who have been around this topic did as well?)

Image
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 22:33:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'R')GR, what strawman arguments? I don't see the "doomers" making strawman arguments, so I'm not sure where you're getting that. In fact, you seem to be the one making strawman arguments.



Are you serious? I thought I was rather clear. Strawman arguements are when you build a model which does whatever you want it to do, and claim that the answer is a deterministic view of the future. ( Doomer modelers have to avoid probability models at all costs, because it requires you to recognize you could be badly wrong ). You do this for both supply ( usually rapidly decreasing ) and for demand ( usually rapidly increasing ), subtract one from the other and proclaim DOOM!!


Seriously? Someone around here who understands probability models? Well...now THIS is interesting. Not sure I agree with the idea of peakers avoiding them at all costs, certainly any credible organization would do this kind of modeling, if they want to be taken seriously.

But it is difficult to get folks to even kick out a resource cost curve to attempt to prove peak oil, asking for a probabilistic one (one way of building this type of stuff into a model) might be beyond anyone except an organization interested in such things.

ASPO USA might be interested, as they claimed a few years ago when they went to the EIA and had a meeting and whatnot. 4th paragraph down. No word from PCI or ASPO if those collaborations and look see at EIA models resulted in anything. ASPO died soon thereafter I think, or maybe they were just too embarrassed to go back? I mean, this was Dec/2012, and within 2 years oil production had exploded faster than ever before in the US.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2012- ... we-learned
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 22:39:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '
')
Its a beautiful set of checks and balances.


Except this time out as the demand goes down, so will the standard of living. The product people can't afford won't be just too expensive to afford, but also in short supply while being the driving force behind all economic growth. Demand will not drop that much as oil and gas are necessities. It might slow the rise in the price, but that is all. We are seeing it now.

Stagflation will set in, where prices go up and the economy can't grow. Bernanke will helicopter in some money for us all to spend.

The house of cards will come down.

What are you smoking???


Hung by your own petard. AGAIN. Ben did helicopter in money. We had a recession. No house of cards came down. SLOW the rise in price? How about REVERSE it, and drop it back to real prices in gasoline like the early 70's? That is the definitive time for cheap oil. And the economy did grow, all the way from 2009 to 2014, with higher crude prices after the 2008 plunge.So you really don't have an operative theory that works at all.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 22:53:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')For me to say that oil demand will continue to follow historical trends, especially when 35% of the world's population GDP is growing at 9.2%, is not an attempt to ignore anything, your position or anyone elses.

The oil may not be there to demand, but that point is quote moot as it doesn't change the outcome. Energy shortage.


Since the day this post was written, a decade ago, have you experienced in any way, an energy shortage? Has anyone refused to sell you gasoline because they had none? Has the local utility company told you they can't provide you with electricity? Have you not been able to get natural gas to heat your home or water? Ever?

I have not had any of these problems during this time. My electricity rates are cheaper, my natural gas heating bill is cheaper, the real price of gasoline right now is about the same as it was in 1970, and there is this thing called a glut. You can tell it is happening when storage is full.

Image

Yup...looks like enough of a glut that the energy statistical and analytic experts think it might take years to work off. You were saying something about energy shortage? Let me guess, you didn't mean in your lifetime perhaps?

At any point in time, back here a decade ago, did your professional ecological experience give you some insight on things turning out the way they have today, with storage full, crashing prices, and OPEC having to compete with new American oil supplies, American oil exports, natural gas exports?

http://blogs.platts.com/2016/02/10/us-b ... g-exports/
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 22:57:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')There is no cheap oil, or any other kind of glut on the horizon.


Petard! Yet again!

So how is the glut in your neck of the woods? I've been paying less than $1.90/gal for premium lately.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 23:06:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')How will we invest in a renewable energy system if our wages have been cut? Where will this alternative system come from?


The usual way. The government will subsidize it. A single trip through central Kansas should be amazing to anyone who thinks that renewables won't scale. Scaled to the horizon they have.

And don't get me started on Roscoe Texas or Ivanpah.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Wed 10 Feb 2016, 23:12:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')How will we invest in a renewable energy system if our wages have been cut? Where will this alternative system come from?


We won't. We will physically help build them using manual labor. It will take time. It will come from a powerdown of everything. Basic needs will be met, with the remaining resources used to build sustainable systems.


Here is the assembly of one. Not much in the way of manual labor.

Image

It has happened already, in central Kansas, along the NV/CA border. And it didn't come from powerdown, but subsidies. And all that electricity is powering my surfing computer, iPhone and TV...so you got one right! My basic needs are being met!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')We will fight over it.


But we didn't. We just drilled plenty-o-wells.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby ennui2 » Thu 11 Feb 2016, 11:53:37

For those who continue to resist the term:

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/article ... -the-teens

We're in a glut.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby JimBof » Thu 11 Feb 2016, 18:10:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'F')or those who continue to resist the term:

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/article ... -the-teens

We're in a glut.


Ennui you are in denial. Remember "All things must pass"
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby ralfy » Thu 11 Feb 2016, 19:50:31

The glut involved expensive production that can only be maintained given debt repayments requiring increasing prices:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... to-survive
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 01:43:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f we start down the decline slope by 2010 as predicted we could see a 20 mbpd shortfall by then. Do the math.


With due respect, Monte, but that number is highly unlikely.


Sure. Because Monte picked someone and then assigned to them the idea AS PREDICTED. Obviously his sources were horrible at predicting anything. Considering we made up that PREDICTED 20 million/day drop and ADDED another 10 a day on top of it...we are beginning to see why Monte was led astray. Bad sources. Not his fault, he just didn't do the math like you did. It happens.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smiley', '
')Of course a slight decline or even the absence of growth is bad enough. But 20 Mbd in 5 years is simply not realistic. Even Campbell who is a notorious pessimist is 'only' predicting a total decline of 5 Mbd in that period.


You nailed it Mr Smiley.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 01:48:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', ' ')as predicted... who's prediction?


Well, other than Lynch and the USGS, almost everyone.


Why would you exclude one of the groups that got it right? Certainly Lynch is an economist of some type who should have been listened to because he revealed why Colin was always wrong, but the USGS folks are premiere geoscientist types, they can beat most anything else with a stick when it comes to this geology stuff. We are talking about the direct intellectual descendants of Hubbert. Who did you use as a source, Simmons? The "we need to use nukes on the Gulf!" guy?
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 01:55:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Do the math.

Let's hope that this doesn't become reality.


It didn't. You are making it difficult to recommend listening to a trained ecologist when it comes to oil and gas stuff Monte. Don't professionally trained ecologists have to take at least ONE geology or math course, so they know good sources from bad, can do the math and not just assume that all declines are declines when obviously it was how fast money could increase production beyond demand levels that really mattered? Rockmans POD principle is still holding up here pretty well, comparing the past to reality, and your unknown decline estimates that became increases and abandoning true geoscientists who know something about this, is this really the kind of objective analysis taught in ecologist schools nowadays? Or back when you went anyway?
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 02:00:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')
Decline rate by USGS? Neither have I. I was referring to the projected peak based upon known recoverable reserves. I think 2032 has been the most cited figure derived.

The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-062-03/FS-062-03.pdf

Do the math based upon the stated recoverable reserves.


Oh Monte, you are trying to WIGGLE!!

That wasn't a RESERVES report, says so right in the title. And anytime someone says "Do the math" and there wasn't any math necessary to read the numbers for UNDISCOVERED accumulations.


Monte, is this true? Do you really not know the difference between reserves, and the kind of technically recoverable estimates that the USGS does?
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby AdamB » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 02:05:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReserveGrowthRulz', ' ')Feel free to prove me wrong though.


Look. Have you nothing better to do that nitpick a simple fact to death?

My original point was that, other than Lynch and the USGS, almost everyone predicting the peak says it is likely to occur by the end of this decade.


Oops. Now you are being insistent that your bad sources are right. Did you SERIOUSLY believe these people, or are you just screwing with people here?

According to you now, 6 years after this was supposed to happen, it still hasn't.

How extensively have you changed your sources? USGS folks must be top of the list, state of the art, right there at the top? Along with EIA perhaps, I mean, these are the folks who didn't fall for this "likely to occur by the end of this decade" claptrap, let us make sure we put them top'o'the pile for not falling for what your sources sold you.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Postby sjn » Fri 12 Feb 2016, 04:26:44

AdamB, please slow down and allow other posters to respond. Perhaps a little humility wouldn't hurt either. Clearly you will disagree, but people holding different views and opinions to you aren't automatically wrong.
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