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Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 02:50:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - Same point I've made before: folks can call any production "unconventional". But in the oil patch where I've resided for the last 4 decades there is no such this as unconventional or conventional production.


I don't doubt it. Or that non-industry folks hanging out blogging about it don't have a clue why that might be, because other non-industry folks all over the place keep saying silly things like that.

But then these are the same folks who often think "fracking" means drilling, oil from the Devonian shales of Ohio are the same as the bitumen of the Green River Basin, and that you as an industry guy are paid in something called EROEI, having forgone being paid in dollars.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rockman', '
') Those are qualifiers were use to describe the nature of the RESERVOIR and not the production itself. A fractured shale is an unconventional reservoir. A very title sandstone reservoir is a conventional reservoir. A high porosity reservoir sitting under 5,000' of water in the GOM is a conventional reservoir.


A fractured shale is a rock of some sort. As to its conventional or unconventional nature as a reservoir, well, maybe it is, and maybe it isn't. Depends on what YOU consider conventional, right? :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rockman', '
')The terminology issue becomes important because it confuses the discussion especially when it he s sidetracked by arguments over definition.


The terminology is mostly irrelevant to the bloggers who are always using it because they don't care about getting it right, just in using words they think makes them look like them oilfield folks.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 02:58:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')Building models is like masterbation: there's nothing wrong with either...as long as you don't start believing they are the real thing. LOL.


Don't let Monte read that. He may want to describe a sexual act like he did to me.


Oh, he is just a little irritated that he left evidence of his bad calls all throughout the website, and when you bring up an old thread where he was really off the rails, he take it hard. We need more professional ecologists around here, sure they don't know much about oil, geology, economics, math or logic, but I'll be they are hell on wheels trapping bears and getting them back to the wild, studying their travel patterns and whatnot, stuff like that.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 09:56:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')dam, run that through a grammar checker. Makes no sense any of it.


Made sense to me, you just have to remember the spell/grammar checker software often changes words to ones with a spelling close to the word you intended.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 10:32:53

Surely there are some things we can agree upon as being unconventional?
1. Corn ethanol distilled with electricity generated by coal or nuclear thereby converting coal into liquid fuel.
2. Alberta tar sands where some energy source is used to cook the bitumen out of the sandstone which then has to be mixed with light oils to make it liquid enough to transport.
After that it gets less clear. Is horizontal drilling and slick water fracking of a tight shale formation unconventional or just "Enhanced recovery" of conventional methods?
What about directional boring in thin coal seams and cooking out gas or liquids while the coal is left in place.
Any others? :?:
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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 10:53:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')urely there are some things we can agree upon as being unconventional?
1. Corn ethanol distilled with electricity generated by coal or nuclear thereby converting coal into liquid fuel.
2. Alberta tar sands where some energy source is used to cook the bitumen out of the sandstone which then has to be mixed with light oils to make it liquid enough to transport.
After that it gets less clear. Is horizontal drilling and slick water fracking of a tight shale formation unconventional or just "Enhanced recovery" of conventional methods?
What about directional boring in thin coal seams and cooking out gas or liquids while the coal is left in place.
Any others? :?:


That is too wide open. For example take corn ethanol. You can make pellets out of the corn stover and burn that fuel for the distilling process, or you can use a much better source like sweet potato or sugar beets or even sugar cane. Just because the US government cow tows to the corn lobby does not make corn even a good source for ethanol, let alone the best source.

For fracking the technology appears to be used for many more conventional fields than tight shale formations. From what I have learned hanging out around this site tight shale has always been a source with wells going back decades. Slick water fracking was invented for old conventional fields as enhanced recovery technology and using it for tight shale was more of an afterthought than a pre planned event.

For tar sands, I remember a few years back when in situ liquification was all the rage, first the huff and puff with steam injection in deep wells, then that injected air burn in the ground system that heated and upgraded to bitumen as it was produced. There have to be threads about both around here somewhere, maybe in the archives. My point being, using super cheap natural gas to melt the strip mined tar sand only won out technologically because the price of methane went down so far.

We use the cheap but wasteful method for tar sands because it is cheap, not because other methods do not exist. We use corn ethanol distilled with electricity because the American government heavily subsidized doing it that way, not because it is the best choice or most efficient. We frack tight shale formations because the technology was developed for easier old formations but when money was being thrown around by the barrel full it seemed like a good idea. Now tight shale fracking is still going on in some places even at the current prices, so it does have a successful niche application. But unless someone throws a bunch more money at it or the price goes triple where it is now the fracking rate will stay much lower than it was two years ago.
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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 11:02:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '
')
That is too wide open. For example take corn ethanol. You can make pellets out of the corn stover and burn that fuel for the distilling process, or you can use a much better source like sweet potato or sugar beets or even sugar cane. Just because the US government cow tows to the corn lobby does not make corn even a good source for ethanol, let alone the best source.

Regardless of the method or fuel supply the result is alcohol not oil so certainly not conventional oil production.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')For fracking the technology appears to be used for many more conventional fields than tight shale formations. From what I have learned hanging out around this site tight shale has always been a source with wells going back decades. Slick water fracking was invented for old conventional fields as enhanced recovery technology and using it for tight shale was more of an afterthought than a pre planned event.

For tar sands, I remember a few years back when in situ liquification was all the rage, first the huff and puff with steam injection in deep wells, then that injected air burn in the ground system that heated and upgraded to bitumen as it was produced. There have to be threads about both around here somewhere, maybe in the archives. My point being, using super cheap natural gas to melt the strip mined tar sand only won out technologically because the price of methane went down so far.

Why not just use the gas retail and leave the tar sands for the future?
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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 11:07:38

The USA is importing some seven million barrels of crude oil a day. Does anyone have a number for the Barrels of oil equivalent being consumed in North America each day growing and processing corn ethanol and extracting tar sands bitumen?
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Re: Oil Production decline likely to be more gradual, than s

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 11:21:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Oh, he is just a little irritated that he left evidence of his bad calls all throughout the website, and when you bring up an old thread where he was really off the rails, he take it hard.


What I've found on the internet is that people would rather defend their past positions to the end of time than to simply admit being wrong and move on. Everyone online's like career politicians in that respect.
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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 12:16:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')dam, run that through a grammar checker. Makes no sense any of it.


Sort of like all those shortages during recessions that don't exist? Except one is bad grammar, and the other not knowing facts?

I'll take the grammar nazi beating any day of the week over the other thanks.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 12:27:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')urely there are some things we can agree upon as being unconventional?
1. Corn ethanol distilled with electricity generated by coal or nuclear thereby converting coal into liquid fuel.


Nothing unconventional about corn ethanol. You appear to be equating the process of manufacturing with unconventional because there are more common or cheaper ways of that manufacturing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')2. Alberta tar sands where some energy source is used to cook the bitumen out of the sandstone which then has to be mixed with light oils to make it liquid enough to transport.


Mining is a time tested and true process going back millennium. Gold, zinc, copper, our civilization has been built on doing this, so mining dirt that happens to be close to the surface doesn't seem particularly unconventional.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') After that it gets less clear. Is horizontal drilling and slick water fracking of a tight shale formation unconventional or just "Enhanced recovery" of conventional methods?


Define conventional methods. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic completions began before more people on this site were born. Production from shale source rocks predates the 20th century, so certainly the use of oil and gas from shale source rocks isn't unconventional in the sense it was just discovered.

Because conventional versus unconventional changes with time, just because something is new today doesn't necessarily make it unconventional, just new. Was all oil for lighting once unconventional, because whale oil was more common?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') What about directional boring in thin coal seams and cooking out gas or liquids while the coal is left in place.
Any others? :?:


How about CTD in the Prudhoe? Is it unconventional because it is expensive and not used in the Bakken to create mini-CO2 projects? Is CO2 EOR being applied immediately to green field production in the ROZ of the Permian Basin unconventional because it is just starting up?

I think it might be a meaningless difference, more used to help people make a sharp distinction where there is none. Marriage between members of the opposite sex was once conventional, and between same sexes ostracized. And yet in a few short years, hey, johnny has two daddys. Big flipping deal. Horizontal drilling? Big flipping deal? Some chemical engineering 101 to steam oily dirt off said dirt? Big deal, I steam my car to get the dirt off it as well, no difference here except scale.

I am voting for there being no difference between the two, only a shift in time, when something new hasn't been in the public consciousness enough to become "conventional" yet.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 12:41:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Nothing unconventional about corn ethanol. You appear to be equating the process of manufacturing with unconventional because there are more common or cheaper ways of that manufacturing.


Why yes they have been distilling whiskey and other grain spirits for a few hundred years so it is nothing new.
What is "Unconventional" about it is using it on a large scale and calling the output crude oil under the label "All other liquids"
That you don't understand the difference renders the rest of your post nonsense and not worth responding to.
Have a good day.
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Re: Oil Production decline more gradual, than steep Pt 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 14 Feb 2016, 13:03:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Nothing unconventional about corn ethanol. You appear to be equating the process of manufacturing with unconventional because there are more common or cheaper ways of that manufacturing.


Why yes they have been distilling whiskey and other grain spirits for a few hundred years so it is nothing new.
What is "Unconventional" about it is using it on a large scale and calling the output crude oil under the label "All other liquids"


There is nothing about scaling up a manufacturing process that makes the act itself unconventional. There is nothing unconventional about including a fuel used in millions, if not hundreds of millions, of vehicles here in the US and labeling it with all other liquids that are also combusted in those millions, if not hundreds of millions, of vehicles.

That second point is just a bookkeeping thing, it has to be accounted for somewhere, and it is unlikely that when used as a liquid fuel, it would be counted in the "all other drinkable alcohols for human consumption" category.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') That you don't understand the difference renders the rest of your post nonsense and not worth responding to.
Have a good day.


I thought it made perfect sense, but then that might be because I don't have any axe to grind on this issue. Jeffrey Brown is trying to defend a peak oil estimate of his, or his buddies, from far in the past now, and the only way he can do is sub-divide liquid fuels into their component parts, and pretending that THOSE parts matter more than THOSE parts.

It is an easy stunt to pull, for example, you can declare peak easy oil by only counting the stuff of a certain density. Or discovered under land, instead of water. Or in first world countries, as opposed to those other ones. Or those not coming from source rocks, those reservoired in, or not, carbonates, I mean we can create a peak in any decade we want by just counting our favorite oils and excluding counting the others.

Goes against the intent of this being a big debate, oil fueling the transport of the planet, and there being more and more of it, but to some people it is more important being right, then actually understanding why there were wrong in the first place.

So sure, you can call whatever type of oil you want whatever you want. And because the concept is as flexible as I've described, you have every right to do it. Which is also why it is also irrelevant.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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