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Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby careinke » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 17:28:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'G')reat graph. Do you supposed it is just coincidence that unemployment generally drops during Dem administrations and rises during most Repub ones?


No, while Dems are labeled tax and spend, the GOP should be labeled borrow and spend. Repub's in power compete for capital with the private sector. Debt almost always increases more under GOP administrations.


When I was in the service, most of our raises came under Democratic presidents. My father told me the same thing happened when he was in.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby Tanada » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 17:35:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hy do you ask that question Tanada? Are you countering certain arguments that the glut now (and the shortage during the $147 run-up) were OPEC-member strategies? If so I agree with you.

Other than a few years of SA Swing Producer effect, OPEC has had little influence on world supply/demand. They all produce like heck to keep their young restless and demanding youth population well supplied with DVD's and baby carriages. I have never paid any attention to OPEC's claims for cartel control. With the exception of SA on several rare occasions (that I can recollect right now) no member of OPEC has ever not produced at its maximum. Of course I can not prove this, as said members have never even exceeded their assigned quotas. They merely increase reserves lol


I didn't ask a question, I sketched out a scenario showing that we could be much worse off today than we are. We are not nearly as prepared as we should be, but neither are we totally in the dark as we were in 1969.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 19:32:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'M')ontequest says: <I>Employment is rising, but spending is not anywhere close to pre-crash</I>


Clearly that is a misstatement. My bad. Don't know why I wrote it that way.

What I meant was that spending wasn't rising during that period as much as the FED wanted it to.

Consumers were deleveraging. Now, not so much.

Image

Now, they are releveraging via student debt, sub-prime car loans and massive credit card spending exceeding pre-crash levels.

Image
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 19:45:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'W')owser, you have made 16,000 posts now. I would have figured that you would have a basic comprehension of data interpretation. Apparently not, as you subscribe to the non-peer reviewed Tverbergian Economic Theory.


In this ghost town remnant of peakoil.com past, you might want to avoid ad homs and shooting the messenger snips. You might not have anyone to debate. 8)

Wouldn't it have been better to just ask for clarity? Or posted your graph with a ? mark?

I'm not known for not doing my homework. 8)
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby ennui2 » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 19:59:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '&')quot;I'm not known for not doing my homework. 8)"

Yes indeed, Marmico is about to learn a lesson in humblebility. If he/she hangs around long enough lol


Yes, about that homework... I'm still waiting for your book report on how algae blooms supposedly "save" us from global warming.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby kublikhan » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 20:07:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote(' MonteQuest', 'N')ow, they are releveraging via student debt, sub-prime car loans and massive credit card spending exceeding pre-crash levels.
Last I heard, household debt was still below pre-crash levels. Further, household income was increasing during that deleveraging and the economy was growing. Thus household debt as a % of GDP and as a % of disposable income fell even harder than absolute debt levels and continues to fall even now:

Household Debt to GDP for United States

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter falling for almost five years, household debt (measured in dollars) has risen in each of the last seven quarters, as the primary forces exerting downward pressure on household debt in previous years (mortgage charge-offs and negative net mortgage originations) have waned, while consumer credit has been expanding at a robust pace. The recent growth in household debt, however, has so far fallen a bit short of growth in disposable personal income (DPI); as a result, the debt-to-DPI ratio (one common measure of leverage) continued to edge down through the end of 2014.

Nominal household debt rose in almost every quarter since the beginning of the series in 1952 until the second quarter of 2008, when it reached a peak of $13.32 trillion. Then, starting in the third quarter of 2008, and over the following 4-1/2 years, household debt fell (in nominal dollars) by a cumulative amount of $940 billion, until reaching a low of $12.42 trillion in the first quarter of 2013. Since then, nominal household debt has risen in every quarter (albeit relatively slowly) and it stood at $12.70 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2014--about $280 billion higher than the low reached in 2013q1.

The debt-to-DPI ratio fell sharply in the 2008-2012 period, as the decline in nominal debt seen in Figure 1 was accompanied by rising disposable personal income in most quarters of that period. Since then, the ratio has edged down a bit more as nominal debt has continued to rise, but at a slightly slower pace than DPI.
Deleveraging and Recent Trends in Household Debt
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby vtsnowedin » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 20:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'M')ontequest says: <I>Employment is rising, but spending is not anywhere close to pre-crash</I>


Clearly that is a misstatement. My bad. Don't know why I wrote it that way.

What I meant was that spending wasn't rising during that period as much as the FED wanted it to.

Consumers were deleveraging. Now, not so much.

Image

Now, they are releveraging via student debt, sub-prime car loans and massive credit card spending exceeding pre-crash levels.

Image

I wonder what that chart would look like if it was plotted on a per capita or per household basis and properly adjusted for inflation? ( The real inflation rate not the one that ignores fuel, food, health care, and rent which eat up 75 % of the average Joe's paycheck)
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 20:39:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'L')ast I heard, household debt was still below pre-crash levels.


Your links only go back to 2013.

FED data from the chart I posted: From the peak in Q3 2008 of $14.1 trillion, household debt began to dip during the crash, bottomed out at $13.3 trillion in Q3 2012, and has been rising since, reaching $14.1 trillion in Q3 2015.
Probably now higher at the end of Q4.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby kublikhan » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 20:58:38

My first link goes to 3rd quarter 2015, same as yours. My second link goes to the end of 2014. I could not find FED data that backs up your wolfstreet numbers. St Louis FED reports household & nonprofit debt peaked at 10.7 trillion in Q2 2008 and stands at 9.5 trillion as of Q3 2015. New York FED reports overall household debt peaked at $12.7 trillion and as of Q3 2015 stands at $12.07 trillion. Either way it seems to me the FED is reporting household debt is still below peak. Not sure why wolfstreet is reporting something different.

Households and Nonprofit Organizations

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s of September 30, 2015, total household indebtedness was $12.07 trillion. Overall household debt remains 5% below its 2008 Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion.
Household Debt and Credit Report
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 21:07:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'N')ot sure why wolfstreet is reporting something different.


The wolfstreet chart says the ST. Louis FED is the data source. Not sure why there is such a difference.

PS the wolfstreet chart includes nonprofits. Also, your FED link was home mortgages liability for households and non-profits, excluding non-household debt.

Image
Last edited by MonteQuest on Mon 01 Feb 2016, 21:28:07, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby kublikhan » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 21:13:24

I think I found the data they used:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')omestic nonfinancial sectors Households Total(seasonally adjusted)
2007: 14.2 trillion
2015Q3: 14.1 trillion
Debt Outstanding by Sector

Based on this looks like they are right that we will soon pass(or probably have already) the previous peak in household debt. You can probably account for the discrepancies in the various numbers if you dig into the definitions they use but this is good enough for me.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 01 Feb 2016, 21:31:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'B')ased on this looks like they are right that we will soon pass(or probably have already) the previous peak in household debt.


Yes, even if you strip off the non-profit data which made my post's number higher.

The releveraging chart I posted excludes the non-profit debt your numbers show.

I think we are in agreement for a change. :-D
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby marmico » Tue 02 Feb 2016, 07:41:03

Household debt service and financial obligations ratios are the lowest since 1980 (the commencement of the data series).

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=3jZp

2015 household gasoline spending to aggregate wage ratio is the 8th lowest in the 69 year data set.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=3jZt
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby dohboi » Tue 02 Feb 2016, 10:13:46

It’s time to worry about the economy
http://qz.com/607162

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t’s a funny thing about globalization. It works on both the way up and the way down.

For the last year the US has been an economic bright spot, in stark contrast to once high-flying emerging markets that powered global growth in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

The first two of the so-called BRICs—the formerly fast-growing emerging market nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China—are suffering through downright nasty recessions. China is slowing fast. Outside the emerging markets, Europe inches along. And Japan remains Japan, last we checked, meaning very little growth.

And now the brightness in the US appears to be dimming, at least a bit. The latest benchmark update on the US manufacturing sector shows activity continued to decline in January, marking four straight months of contraction. The strong US dollar—it’s up about 13% against the currencies of major trading partners—is a key culprit.

But the US isn’t alone. China’s manufacturing sector is shrinking, too, leaving us with the troubling specter of the world’s top two manufacturing economies in open retreat.


So that would leave...India as the one major economic bright spot in the world!!?? 8O
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby EdwinSm » Tue 02 Feb 2016, 11:14:05

buyeverything.gif
A lesson from the past (2007) about borrowing, borrowing, borrowing, although I am not sure the 2017 date for Superland is 100% correct.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 02 Feb 2016, 11:23:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'H')ousehold debt service and financial obligations ratios are the lowest since 1980 (the commencement of the data series).


Only marginally lower. When even then it was unsustainable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', '2')015 household gasoline spending to aggregate wage ratio is the 8th lowest in the 69 year data set.


Due to recent cheap gasoline. As recent as 2011, it was spiking.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby marmico » Tue 02 Feb 2016, 13:13:17

Now that you have completed the household stock (assets/liabilities) to flow (income) and flow to flow deleveraging, kindly compute the stock to stock deleveraging.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Postby dohboi » Thu 04 Feb 2016, 13:55:29

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/02 ... g-roberts/

The West Is Traveling The Road To Economic Ruin
— Paul Craig Roberts

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..economic theory is really a device for ripping off the untermenschen. International trade theory concludes that countries can service huge debts simply by lowering domestic wages in order to pay creditors. This is the policy currently being applied to Greece today, and it has been the basis of the IMF’s structural adjustment or austerity programs imposed on debtor countries, essentially a form of looting that turns over national resources to foreign lenders...

...Western economies have been financialized in a predatory way that sacrifices the public interest to the interests of the financial sector. That is why the economy no longer works for ordinary people. Finance is no longer productive. It has become a parasite on the economy.
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