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Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Years

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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 13:45:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '.').. What does the world look like when the entire real national production of the United States is accomplished by the action of 1,000 humans and the robotic and computational tools at their command?

North Korea?

This is the same question that could be asked of the agricultural industry, also. Robots will be needed to feed a world of 9 billion. (... Setting aside the fact that other systemic problems will likely terminate the human experiment)

Of course, this is one more step in the distancing of humans from nature and the environment. They will be unaware of how to grow their own food, where it comes from or what goes into it's production (chemicals, pesticides). There is no going back.

What you need to know about the robots that feed humanity

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Iowa, there's a 3,000-acre farm that uses machines to accomplish most tasks, from seeding to fertilizing and chemical application. This land, owned by the Mitchell family, is known as one of the most mechanized farms in the United States, and it's far from being unique. The Mitchells and their equally high-tech neighbors are some of the top corn producers in the US, thanks to their machines. But more and more farmers in the country are also turning to agricultural robots, as laborers start dwindling in number and demands for crops and produce continue to grow. After all, they need all the help they can get to feed millions of people, since it's just not feasible to farm by hand anymore as it was a hundred years ago. Seeing as the US population has grown by 22.5 percent between 1990 (an estimated 250 million) and 2010 (310 million), and the Census Bureau expects it to balloon to more than 420 million in 2050, you can expect to see more robots doing the dirty work on more American farms.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')arlier this year, a tree nursery in Florida hired a fleet of robots called HV100 (or "Harvey"), designed by Boston firm Harvest Automation. These Wall-E-like robots autonomously space out saplings as they grow bigger and pack them tightly when it's time to sell them.

Image
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4J8TPOP-OM

A big problem for growers is that spacing is one of the least desirable jobs on the farm. The task involves bending over, picking up one or more containers in each hand (containers weight up to 22 pounds apiece), walking a few steps, and then bending over again to carefully place them in a specific, predefined pattern. Workers do this task daily throughout the growing season under conditions that range from >100°F heat to cold drizzle. The work is seasonal, injuries are common, and pay is low. Labor supply problems are widespread.

The undesirable nature of spacing work results in high turnover; growers find it difficult to predict how many workers will show up on a given day. Shortages lead to triage. When too few workers are available, growers perform only the most urgent jobs and neglect others. Such compromises can affect the yield and quality of the plants and the profitability of the business.

Labor headaches give the nursery and greenhouse industry a strong incentive to adopt robots. In fact, we have encountered virtually no growers who were unwilling to consider using robots.


Robot farmers are the future of agriculture, says government

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') new vision of robots patrolling the meadows and cornfields of the UK may seem dark and satanic to some, but according to farmers and the government it is the future, and will bring efficiencies and benefits, and an end to some of the most back-breaking jobs around the farm.

An increasing number of "farmbots" are being developed that are capable of finicky and complex tasks that have not been possible with the large-scale agricultural machinery of the past.

For instance, a "lettuce bot" is capable of hoeing away ground weeds from around the base of plants. A "wine bot" trundles through vineyards pruning vines. Other bots are under development to remotely check crops for their growth, moisture and signs of disease.


Are ag-robots ready? 27 companies profiled

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Autonomous machines don't need operators and can operate around the clock. Thus tight operational windows can be achieved for seeding and other time-sensitive activities.

... Modern farmers and ranchers are already high-tech. Digitally-controlled farm implements are regularly in use. There are partially and fully automatic devices for most aspects of agricultural functions from grafting to planting, from harvesting to sorting, packaging and boxing. Farmers use software systems and aerial survey maps and data to guide their field operations. They also use auto-steer systems included in many new tractors (or buy kits that do the same thing) which follow GPS and software guidance. Some farmers are already transitioning some of their operations to full autonomy. Thus forward-thinking farm owners today may be able to skip over slow, incremental improvements and jump directly to robotic and autonomous automation. But are the robots ready?

In a follow-up to my July, 2014 article “Will agricultural robots arrive in time to keep fruit and vegetable costs down?” this article profiles 27 of the many companies (from conglomerates to start-ups) attempting to provide robotic solutions for farming problems and explores what they are doing, when their products will be available, and at what cost.

Moorehead makes the distinction between “autonomous” systems, or “robots,” and “automated” systems that still require a driver onboard. In farming, automated products such as John Deere’s MachineSync and Claas’ AutoFill and Windrow Guidance have been on the market for a few years now.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 14:03:04

Killer robots. Invisible drones: not science fiction any more. Welcome to war.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')iving your soldiers superior technology has always been a significant factor in winning wars, but now it's the technology itself threatening to do the killing.

Autonomous killer robots that can hunt down humans and make their own decisions about who to exterminate are not science fiction or a problem for the future. They are a threat now.

Any doubt about that can be removed by reading US Department of Defence budgets covering the past 12 years and by talking to scientists at the forefront of military-funded research. Having done so, the following scenario becomes frighteningly real.


As the 2011 US defence research budget makes clear, the military's "robust robotics" program has been developing techniques that enable robotic agents to achieve effective levels of autonomous reasoning "whether humans are present or not".

In fact, earlier budgets show the US military has been developing autonomous hunter-killer weapons, robot learning and reasoning technologies, unmanned combat armed rotorcraft and drone swarms for more than a decade.

The 2016 budget outlines a newer strand of research. It shows the military developing "hybrid biological-computational platforms" and new approaches for using physiological and neural signals to make human-machine systems more efficient. It also warns that ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]... Current modelling approaches are heavily reliant on human insight and expertise, but the complexity of these models is growing exponentially and has now, or will soon, exceed the capacity for human comprehension - 2016 DARPA Budget - pg 25/308 - Big Mechanism program

The "if we don't do it, the enemy will" attitude of military powers will be one obstacle. Former US Army officer and autonomous weapons expert, Sam Wallace put the hawkish side of the argument in a written response to calls for a UN ban.

"Machines excel at making split-second tactical decisions that humans have trouble with," he says. "This could lead to a significant disaster if we choose not to develop any systems capable of combating these types of threats.

"How would you fight against 50,000 small agile robots invading a village if you only have four or five drones controlled by humans trying to find and shoot them down?"
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 18:05:20

What's interesting to me is that none of these types of systems are high-dollar in their production form. By that, I mean, individually, the little bots are really nothing special; its the organic, networked software system that is the significant development. This presents a problem from the security side, in that it only takes one lapse, and not only does North Korea catch up; but they get your code base to spend umpteen bajillion hours analyzing for vulnerabilities.

So not only do you have the "Terminator/Skynet" risk, along side just regular error risk; you also have the risk that some North Korean twerp will have just the right virus stored on his gear to deliver, to muck up the works with one tap of a key. And even if our program's security is top notch, and error free; do you trust the Russians to be as careful with theirs? Or the Chinese? India? All have substantial numbers of top notch mathematicians, computer scientists, and mechanical engineers. Most of this stuff is talked about in the associated academic journals. Its not particularly super-secret stuff.

We do beat the snot out of all of them in matching the tech side to the finance and investing side; but the tech itself is neither magic, nor unique.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 17 May 2018, 16:50:58

I don’t much like Kissinger but found myself reading this article on AI and considering his words. I need to reread it to take in his entire position. Some interesting insights.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... ry/559124/
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 17 May 2018, 17:14:11

I am at least a hobbyist when it comes to AI - an EE with 35+ years experience in computing, even longer a fan of SF, and I now (being a retired member) have access to the IEEE pubs on the subject.

I do NOT subscribe to the theory that AI forms any kind of a hazard for humans. In fact I would give 99% probability to the scenario that humans and AI's will form partnerships that benefit both. I would give 0.9% probability that fearful humans will be successful at stopping AI developments. I would give 0.1%, or 1 in 1000 odds that AI's would in any way harm humans of their own accord (and a somewhat higher probability that AI controlled mechanical systems would be used by some humans to harm others). (In fact, drones and autonomous gun platforms are already in use.)

Virtually everything can be abused by hateful humans. Fear of such abuse does not constitute an excuse to stop technological progress in any field.
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Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 09 Nov 2018, 22:11:27

Just for you KJ, the Chinese news agency has launched an AI news reader.

https://omny.fm/shows/the-jeff-fisher-s ... -anchor-bo
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 11 Nov 2018, 13:03:47

Great so next we will get Termnator doing TSA strip search body cavity exams?
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby Cog » Sun 11 Nov 2018, 19:26:30

I know of no robot that can take a 30.06 AP round to the chest and survive it. That bullet will go through 3/4 inch armor plate. Frankly, I'm a bit disappointed in the robots I've seen demonstrated. They are made of sheet metal, plastic, and exposed wiring and hydraulics. Hardly the thing of sci-fi horrors just yet.
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Re: Elon Musk: Killer Robots will eliminate us all in 5-10 Y

Unread postby careinke » Mon 12 Nov 2018, 00:31:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I') know of no robot that can take a 30.06 AP round to the chest and survive it. That bullet will go through 3/4 inch armor plate. Frankly, I'm a bit disappointed in the robots I've seen demonstrated. They are made of sheet metal, plastic, and exposed wiring and hydraulics. Hardly the thing of sci-fi horrors just yet.


I've seen (on a TED Talk) a drone the size of a slice of bread do a self directed facial recognition search while flying an unpredictable pattern and once it acquired the target kamikaze into the victims head setting of a half ounce charge through the skull into the brain. Try shooting that with your 30-06.

Oh it can also work with thousands of other drones. Think how easy igt could have been to take out Osama.
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