Survivor Peak Oil: Outwit, Outplay, Outlast.

by **mark** » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 08:13:59

Montequest wrote:

"Not just the human species, all species. And we all can grow until we reach the limits of our environment to support us, then nature steps in and culls us back to a sustainable population. That is the nature of all life on earth."

Yes indeed, Monte, but we're the only animal concious of our own existence and death. And, can we not learn and grow sustainably without the intervention of nature?

We can, but we are not required to do so only by ourselves; which leads to the real problem of human existence...but that's for another topic.

by **Raxozanne** » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 08:34:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'M')ontequest wrote:

"Not just the human species, all species. And we all can grow until we reach the limits of our environment to support us, then nature steps in and culls us back to a sustainable population. That is the nature of all life on earth."

Yes indeed, Monte, but we're the only animal concious of our own existence and death. And, can we not learn and grow sustainably without the intervention of nature?

by **TheTurtle** » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 09:29:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', ' ')Anyway growth is unsustainable in a closed environment ultimately.

by **MonteQuest** » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 11:37:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'M')ontequest wrote:

"Not just the human species, all species. And we all can grow until we reach the limits of our environment to support us, then nature steps in and culls us back to a sustainable population. That is the nature of all life on earth."

Yes indeed, Monte, but we're the only animal concious of our own existence and death. And, can we not learn and grow sustainably without the intervention of nature?

by **jimmydean** » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 14:28:30

In regard to resouce wars I'm just curious at what $$ per gallon do we get widespread civil unrest perhaps not as dramatic as Mad Max but enough to put us under martial law; $10/gallon? That may be the precursor to a global resouce war.

With the high percentage of Americans having personel firearms this could be nastier than a global resource war.

Then again this kind of thing will be more likely to first happen in poorer nations where rationing causes widespread bankrupcies/unemployment and chaos.

by **MonteQuest** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 17:48:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jimmydean', 'I')n regard to resouce wars I'm just curious at what $$ per gallon do we get widespread civil unrest perhaps not as dramatic as Mad Max but enough to put us under martial law; $10/gallon? That may be the precursor to a global resouce war.

by **DantesPeak** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 18:27:26

Gasoline use is up 2% in the US, but what is more surprising is that diesel use is up even more - 5% - even though it has gone up faster than gas over the last year.

A recessionary economy will reduce energy demand, but maybe not by much. The Federal Reserve and Congress will probably even fight small recessionary declines in energy use by trying to stimulate the economy again. They will fail if we are really at PO, and the recession was caused by energy related demand destruction.

by **The_Toecutter** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 18:28:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t a large party on the 4th, I asked people what they would/will do as the price of gas rose. Most said they would cut out cable TV, their extra phone lines, magazine subscription, golf less, etc. Not one said they would drive less. When asked why, it was mostly because they couldn't. There has been no demand destruction after a 58% rise. I wonder what price it will take? As long as American can go to the refi-ATM, they will pay whatever the price is. Some have no choice.

by **jimmydean** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 18:51:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')t a large party on the 4th, I asked people what they would/will do as the price of gas rose. Most said they would cut out cable TV, their extra phone lines, magazine subscription, golf less, etc. Not one said they would drive less. When asked why, it was mostly because they couldn't. There has been no demand destruction after a 58% rise. I wonder what price it will take? As long as American can go to the refi-ATM, they will pay whatever the price is. Some have no choice.

by **jeffvail** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 19:15:43

While America produces more GDP now per barrel of oil than, say, in the 1970's, America's ongoing expansion into suburbia and exurbia has also dramatically decreased the elasticity of our demand for oil. We've backed ourselves into a corner, and as I see it, we basically have two choices when it comes to dealing with higher gas prices:

1. Cut out the cable, golf, other discretionary income, and keep on driving as we presently due (low elasticity of gasoline demand). As MonteQuest's 4th of July poll suggests, this seems to be the popular choice. Of course, it only makes the eventual need to actually address the problem more difficult...

2. Convert to a less gas-intensive lifestyle. While on the face of it this is the sensible option, it also has drastic consequences for our economy: there are huge sunk costs in existing housing, infrastructure, commercial real estate, etc. Abandoning those sunk costs will send us into a recession/depression just as quickly. Only a VERY gradual decline in oil supply, or a VERY gradual rise in crude prices will allow sunk-cost investment to perform adequately over the next 20 years or so to facilitate a "soft landing"... and that doesn't seem too likely to happen, at least in my world!

~Jeff
www.jeffvail.net

by **The_Toecutter** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 20:12:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')ly a VERY gradual decline in oil supply, or a VERY gradual rise in crude prices will allow sunk-cost investment to perform adequately over the next 20 years or so to facilitate a "soft landing"... and that doesn't seem too likely to happen, at least in my world!

by **avo** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 22:04:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')t a large party on the 4th, I asked people what they would/will do as the price of gas rose. ... Not one said they would drive less. When asked why, it was mostly because they couldn't.

by **MonteQuest** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 23:57:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t a large party on the 4th, I asked people what they would/will do as the price of gas rose. Most said they would cut out cable TV, their extra phone lines, magazine subscription, golf less, etc. Not one said they would drive less. When asked why, it was mostly because they couldn't. There has been no demand destruction after a 58% rise. I wonder what price it will take? As long as American can go to the refi-ATM, they will pay whatever the price is. Some have no choice.

by **MonteQuest** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 00:01:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jeffvail', 'W')hile America produces more GDP now per barrel of oil than, say, in the 1970's, ...

by **MonteQuest** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 00:12:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('avo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')t a large party on the 4th, I asked people what they would/will do as the price of gas rose. ... Not one said they would drive less. When asked why, it was mostly because they couldn't.

by **avo** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 01:12:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')t a large party on the 4th ... At a dinner party later in the day ...

by **somethingtosay** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 01:20:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'A')aron,

Really, what's the real problem? Peak oil is a symptom, overpopulation is a symptom. Fractional reserve banking is a symptom. So, what's the real problem?

Inquiring minds want to know!

Thanks for the post Monte (where've you been?) and those wonderful replies all.

by **MonteQuest** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 01:22:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('avo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')t a large party on the 4th ... At a dinner party later in the day ...

by **avo** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 02:29:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')atisfied and appreciative clients. :-D

by **Raxozanne** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 02:32:24

Ok so the problem is growth.

Monte says that any species will multiply until it reaches the limits or goes above the limits and then nature will cull us back.

Ludi says that some cultures have managed to avoid unlimited growth and therefore (I presume) avoid this cycle of boom and bust. (sorry for quoting Ludi I hope you don't mind)

I found this article on the Tukano tribe. It suggests that they knew about how they population would have an effect on the environment. Here is the link to the article (well actually its an extract from a book). You only need to read the bit entitled 'The Tukano: A Primal Adaptation'.

I was wondering if this is an example of people being able to avoid the boom and bust through culture? Maybe there is some hope??? Any comments?

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