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THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Sun 03 Jan 2016, 19:16:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'I')'ve already lost? Haha. Low price of $34.

LOL! No. Updated.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Wed 06 Jan 2016, 14:49:54

Here's the initial scorecard for 2016:

Image

Only one day was reported by EIA for 2016 so far. Markets were closed for New Year's Day of course, and then the 2nd and 3rd were the weekend, so there was no data for those dates as well. I had forgotten about that, so the deadline to enter or change your guesses has been extended one more week!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Pops » Wed 06 Jan 2016, 15:00:00

That will be my best rank all year!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Pops » Wed 06 Jan 2016, 18:09:26

From POB

Image
http://peakoilbarrel.com/bakken-single- ... more-10980
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby dolanbaker » Wed 06 Jan 2016, 18:11:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', ' ')I had forgotten about that, so the deadline to enter or change your guesses has been extended one more week!

Good! ;) because the price has just zoomed south past my minimum price, I will change my low guess (again) one day before closing.
Brent has just dropped 6% 8O
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Subjectivist » Wed 06 Jan 2016, 19:46:14

I can only go up from here!
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Cog » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 00:35:44

Please adjust my low oil price to $32
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby dolanbaker » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 02:54:10

Please drop my low to $31
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 07:50:26

Cog and dolanbaker: Updated.

It seems to me there will be a slow steady rise in prices now that the US export ban has been lifted and production from N. Dakota and Texas are both in decline now. The continuing conflicts in the ME swill continue to put upward pressure on prices too. The only thing that seems to be keeping the price low at this time is the storage glut, but that too seems to be in decline, and by the end of the year, that "glut" will be greatly reduced.

We'll see.

Any last minute players? Come on! There's plenty of room!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Cog » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 10:37:55

When is the absolute last day we can modify prices?
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 13:26:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'W')hen is the absolute last day we can modify prices?


Before the weekly EIA report is released this next Wednesday, the 13th. I think the report is posted at 1:00 pm Eastern US time zone.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Cog » Fri 08 Jan 2016, 14:00:36

Thanks. I doubt the price will go much lower. Like trying to catch a falling knife.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby kublikhan » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 14:16:22

In that case here is my new low: $30
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby dolanbaker » Mon 11 Jan 2016, 14:58:25

Looks like I may be revising down again in a couple of days.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby dolanbaker » Tue 12 Jan 2016, 05:18:01

Can you please drop me down to $30 (last change I suspect)
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby careinke » Tue 12 Jan 2016, 19:11:19

OK, my final guess is:

High - 101
LO - 26.5
close 96
Average 48.6
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Cog » Tue 12 Jan 2016, 20:26:27

Please adjust my low price to $29.50
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Keith_McClary » Wed 13 Jan 2016, 20:59:53

War Between Saudi Arabia And Iran Could Send Oil Prices To $250
OilPrice.com
12 January 2016
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 13 Jan 2016, 21:26:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '[')url=http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/War-Between-Saudi-Arabia-And-Iran-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-To-250.html]War Between Saudi Arabia And Iran Could Send Oil Prices To $250[/url]
OilPrice.com
12 January 2016

So THAT'S KSA's strategy!

1). Convince the world you'll drive oil prices to self-destructive low prices. Drive a lot of Western competition out of business (for now) while you're at it.

2). When no one is watching, buy a bazillion oil futures. (Or a kazillion. The more the better).

3). Start a shooting war with Iran, somehow ensuring your oil facilities aren't largely destroyed in the process.

4). Unload the oil futures for 4x to 8x profits.

5). Laugh maniacally while you continue to sell your normal oil for at least as much as it was selling for when the whole sleigh ride began, for years to come.

....

Pretty sneaky!

Geopolitics is funny though -- wars being unpredictable and all.

...

Now, if they didn't hate Iran and they could get Iran in on the game and both sides fake it -- wow, couldn't THAT be some fun? Hmmmmm. Maybe OPEC has the wrong strategy.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Thu 14 Jan 2016, 06:15:05

Alright. Here's the first "official" scorecard after the grace period

Image

Good luck everyone!

What happened to SteinarN?
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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