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THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 08:14:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I') think I've done this game before but I'm not on the spreadsheet.

Please put me down for

HIGH 76.57
LOW 30.00
CLOSE 70.29

Thanks!

--Plantagenet


Hi Plantagenet. Welcome back to the game. Please make a guess of the average price too. Thanks!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 08:15:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'I')t's a year where we'll either see KSA continue its policy of destroying higher break-even competitors or there'll be some conflagration taking the price to the moon. Even though the latter seems plausible in the current climate, I think we'll mainly see BAU.

High 57
Low 27
Close 45

Edit: reduced Low price due to sanctions being lifted on Iran in 2016.


Welcome back to the game. Please make a guess of the average price for the year too. Thanks!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 08:17:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'H')igh 52.50
Low 14.25
Close 48.00


Please make a guess of the average price for the year too. Thanks!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 08:23:24

Here's the updated scorecard:

Image

Reminder: If an average price is not posted, then an average price will be calculated from the other three guesses at the deadline.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby dolanbaker » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 08:34:33

I will drop my bottom to $34 as we're around that now. ;)
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby davep » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 12:34:22

Average 41
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 17:52:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'A')verage 41


Thank you davep.

I updated the spreadsheet.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SeaGypsy » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 17:57:54

Av 38

Sent from my HUAWEI Y520-U33 using Tapatalk
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Tue 22 Dec 2015, 18:13:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'A')v 38

Sent from my HUAWEI Y520-U33 using Tapatalk


Thanks! Updated.

I sent PMs to the others asking them to post their average guesses.

I'll post another scorecard soon.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Subjectivist » Wed 23 Dec 2015, 09:56:56

I would like to change my low to $30.95 and my average to $53.33 please.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby MB » Wed 23 Dec 2015, 10:24:39

High: $78
Low: $30
Close: $48
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Wed 23 Dec 2015, 18:52:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'I') would like to change my low to $30.95 and my average to $53.33 please.


Updated.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Wed 23 Dec 2015, 18:54:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MB', 'H')igh: $78
Low: $30
Close: $48


Welcome to our game! Please post an average price estimate too. Thanks!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Cog » Wed 23 Dec 2015, 22:41:56

High: $55
Low: $37.50
Close: $45
Average $47
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Thu 24 Dec 2015, 08:13:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'H')igh: $55
Low: $37.50
Close: $45
Average $47


Welcome aboard, Cog. Gotcha down.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby kublikhan » Thu 24 Dec 2015, 13:57:01

Low: $35
Average: $45
Close: $50
High: $50
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Revi » Fri 25 Dec 2015, 22:53:02

It's going to be an interesting challenge this year. Some surprising changes might take place. We are all adjusting our positions prior to being put in the starting gates. I am guessing much lower than in years past after reading Shortonoil's posts and getting to understand his ETP model. I could be wrong... I usually end up in the middle of the pack anyway.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Mon 28 Dec 2015, 09:21:58

Here's the list of players so far:

Image

Reminder: You can change your estimates up to the deadline next week (when the EIA releases their first report for 2016).

If an average price is not posted, an average will be calculated from the other three guesses. I'll italicize those numbers.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported this article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;We expect both prices to rise next year," said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank. "A short-term slide can't be excluded, due to persisting oversupplies, negative sentiment and stronger downside momentum."

Figures from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries imply a glut of more than 2 million barrels per day, equal to over 2 percent of world demand. Oversupply is expected to persist into the earlier part of next year.

"The global supply and demand tables are still showing a heavy picture for the first half of 2016," said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix.

Reuters Article
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby wildbourgman » Mon 28 Dec 2015, 21:55:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildbourgman', 'H')igh: 72
Low: 27
Ending: 68


Ok Peak Oiler, lets go with $43.50 as an average
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Tue 29 Dec 2015, 12:24:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildbourgman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildbourgman', 'H')igh: 72
Low: 27
Ending: 68


Ok Peak Oiler, lets go with $43.50 as an average


Thanks!
Updated.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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