$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'E')IA study puts it around 340+ recoverable I believe. The real issue is, just as it was in the US, how much does oil have to cost before the next "revolution" kicks into gear.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14431
PeakOil is You
THE Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil
Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil
by Pops » Tue 05 Jan 2016, 09:32:12
Actually it has to do with lots more than simply price. There are a variety of reasons the US was the first and largest producer of crude and they all apply double to LTO.
Here is what has happened globally so far, again, even after 5 years of the highest average prices ever...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')otable shale resource exploration efforts are underway in several countries, including Algeria, Australia, Colombia, Mexico, and Russia. However, commercial shale development of the type demonstrated in the United States requires the ability to rapidly drill and complete a large number of wells in a single productive geologic formation. The logistics and infrastructure necessary to support this level of activity, including the drilling and completion processes, the manufacturing of drilling equipment, and the distribution of the final product to market are not yet evident in countries other than the United States, Canada, China, and to some extent, Argentina. Other above the ground factors such as ownership of mineral rights, taxation regimes, and social acceptance also play a role in decisions regarding the development of shales and other tight resources.
But let's just say that the EIAs resource number is right; and with a swipe of the magic hand all the listed impediments are swept away, (governments cede mineral and production rights to landowners and make taxes favorable; roads, rails, pipelines water sources spring into existence; manufacturing infrastructures appear from nowhere, protesters vanish, etc);
and let's say the economy has no problem with $1-2-300 bbl prices...
IOW, all that shale could be magically unlocked.
It would delay peak at most 5 years.
My guess is all of that won't happen in a timely enough manner to significantly offset the decline of the giant conventional reservoirs that are 80% of production. It's better than a sharp stick in the eye but then the only real surprise was how resilient the economy was to high price with help from unlimited government credit. The whole peak oil theory is that peak happens somewhere around the half-point of production... the second half has to come from somewhere.
For that matter, I don't necessarily believe LTO has peaked in the US, at least in the sense that it is a physical, geological impossibility for the flow to exceed the prior peak. Given $1-200 prices tomorrow, I have no doubt it would soon surpass last year. But every minute that goes by is another minute of declining legacy production and depleting resource base.
The underlying, most important fundamental of course is conventional depletion. But even more so with the very fast LTO decline. Depletion never sleeps, it continually erodes the $10 shoulders that $100 LTO stands on... even as we tap blather into the eather. That is and always has been the key to delaying peak oil, offsetting continuous depletion.
The question is, how long before decline / depletion of conventional and the LTO sweet spots already tapped makes revisiting the previous peak impossible?
1 year?
3-4-5 years?
Tik-Tok
.
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-
Pops - Elite
- Posts: 19746
- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil
by Tanada » Tue 05 Jan 2016, 10:35:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')ut let's just say that the EIAs resource number is right; and with a swipe of the magic hand all the listed impediments are swept away, (governments cede mineral and production rights to landowners and make taxes favorable; roads, rails, pipelines water sources spring into existence; manufacturing infrastructures appear from nowhere, protesters vanish, etc);
and let's say the economy has no problem with $1-2-300 bbl prices...
IOW, all that shale could be magically unlocked.
It would delay peak at most 5 years.
My guess is all of that won't happen in a timely enough manner to significantly offset the decline of the giant conventional reservoirs that are 80% of production. It's better than a sharp stick in the eye but then the only real surprise was how resilient the economy was to high price with help from unlimited government credit. The whole peak oil theory is that peak happens somewhere around the half-point of production... the second half has to come from somewhere.
For that matter, I don't necessarily believe LTO has peaked in the US, at least in the sense that it is a physical, geological impossibility for the flow to exceed the prior peak. Given $1-200 prices tomorrow, I have no doubt it would soon surpass last year. But every minute that goes by is another minute of declining legacy production and depleting resource base.
The underlying, most important fundamental of course is conventional depletion. But even more so with the very fast LTO decline. Depletion never sleeps, it continually erodes the $10 shoulders that $100 LTO stands on... even as we tap blather into the ether. That is and always has been the key to delaying peak oil, offsetting continuous depletion.
The question is, how long before decline / depletion of conventional and the LTO sweet spots already tapped makes revisiting the previous peak impossible?
1 year?
3-4-5 years?
Tik-Tok
.
.
and let's say the economy has no problem with $1-2-300 bbl prices...
IOW, all that shale could be magically unlocked.
It would delay peak at most 5 years.
My guess is all of that won't happen in a timely enough manner to significantly offset the decline of the giant conventional reservoirs that are 80% of production. It's better than a sharp stick in the eye but then the only real surprise was how resilient the economy was to high price with help from unlimited government credit. The whole peak oil theory is that peak happens somewhere around the half-point of production... the second half has to come from somewhere.
For that matter, I don't necessarily believe LTO has peaked in the US, at least in the sense that it is a physical, geological impossibility for the flow to exceed the prior peak. Given $1-200 prices tomorrow, I have no doubt it would soon surpass last year. But every minute that goes by is another minute of declining legacy production and depleting resource base.
The underlying, most important fundamental of course is conventional depletion. But even more so with the very fast LTO decline. Depletion never sleeps, it continually erodes the $10 shoulders that $100 LTO stands on... even as we tap blather into the ether. That is and always has been the key to delaying peak oil, offsetting continuous depletion.
The question is, how long before decline / depletion of conventional and the LTO sweet spots already tapped makes revisiting the previous peak impossible?
1 year?
3-4-5 years?
Tik-Tok
.
.
Something we have not spent much time talking about the last year because of low prices relevant to your comment above. For at least the period 2011-2014 I heard the more right knee jerk types complain that President Obama refused to issue any oil drilling leases in the Federal lands where over half of the Bakken shale beds are located. All of the drilling and fracking done in the last seven years has been on private or state lands exclusively leaving something like 60 percent of the Bakken play out of bounds for the drilling companies.
So what will the policy of a President Clinton or a President Trump be with regards to drilling federal lands and fracking the shale beds under it? If the price goes back into the $100.00/bbl range by the inauguration in January 2017 or soon after that federal leasing could be the key issue to the USA once again producing a lot of fracked shale oil. I get the feeling no matter who wins the election there will be enormous pressure to open federal lands to drilling.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
- Tanada
- Site Admin
- Posts: 17094
- Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA
