[babystrangeloop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 'c')hinese gdp 9.1%

[evilgenius]

I take it that though you are providing a Yemeni example the feedback you are talking about is also something you are seeing where you are? Is that Hong Kong?

[babystrangeloop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') take it that though you are providing a Yemeni example the feedback you are talking about is also something you are seeing where you are? Is that Hong Kong?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')n a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.

Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.

What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.

[AgentR11]

I think it just did, at least with regard to the last paragraph. The US, EU, China and tagalong Japan just competed for priority access to Russia's gas and oil and grain... and we lost.

Won't hurt for a while, but its a done deal. When Russia has to choose between selling to the EU or selling to China at some eventual point in the future; the grain, oil, and gas will go to China, even possibly at a slight discount.

Whats been more intersting is how the cap on oil prices has played out because consumers are much more sensitive to price in their non-essential energy usage than expected. That'll make the play out take longer, but be much more jittery along the way.

As to jobs... well.

EMRATIO

It can't be hidden.

[Subjectivist]

Some days it just feels like the dark shadow of consequences is hanging over us like the Sword of Damaclese.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'I') think it just did, at least with regard to the last paragraph. The US, EU, China and tagalong Japan just competed for priority access to Russia's gas and oil and grain... and we lost.

Won't hurt for a while, but its a done deal. When Russia has to choose between selling to the EU or selling to China at some eventual point in the future; the grain, oil, and gas will go to China, even possibly at a slight discount.

Whats been more intersting is how the cap on oil prices has played out because consumers are much more sensitive to price in their non-essential energy usage than expected. That'll make the play out take longer, but be much more jittery along the way.

As to jobs... well.

EMRATIO

It can't be hidden.

[ROCKMAN]

"...but as we have bumped along the plateau for most of the last decade I see less and less forward thinking." Actually there has been intense forward thinking especially by the US pubcos. The question is how you define that forward time span. For China it's probably much closer to decades. For many US pubcos it's been quarter to quarter. You've seen my posts before: the oil patch wasn't caught with its pants down by the price collapse. Again: almost all senior pubco management has been through at least 2 boom/bust cycles. Why would they expect this last boom to be any different? That's exactly why the pubcos borrowed so much capex: to drill as much as possible as fast as possible to increase the value of their stock and options as fast as possible. Virtually everyone of us old fart managers understood that this was going to be our last rodeo: none of us will be here when the next boom arrives.

I find it very funny that so many who call us lying bastards are just as ready to call us shortsighted. We aren't short sighted...we all knew the bust was coming. We are lying bastards that have reaped great rewards as we are checking out. LOL. Except for the Rockman, of course. Not the lying bastard part...that's true. But the checking out part: last week a vendor asked me about retiring since I'll be 65 next spring. I told him hell no: I plan to work until my MS kills me...or if something worse happens. Being a fellow old fart I didn't have to explain what that meant. LOL.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;...but as we have bumped along the plateau for most of the last decade I see less and less forward thinking." Actually there has been intense forward thinking especially by the US pubcos. The question is how you define that forward time span. For China it's probably much closer to decades. For many US pubcos it's been quarter to quarter. You've seen my posts before: the oil patch wasn't caught with its pants down by the price collapse. Again: almost all senior pubco management has been through at least 2 boom/bust cycles. Why would they expect this last boom to be any different? That's exactly why the pubcos borrowed so much capex: to drill as much as possible as fast as possible to increase the value of their stock and options as fast as possible. Virtually everyone of us old fart managers understood that this was going to be our last rodeo: none of us will be here when the next boom arrives.

I find it very funny that so many who call us lying bastards are just as ready to call us shortsighted. We aren't short sighted...we all knew the bust was coming. We are lying bastards that have reaped great rewards as we are checking out. LOL. Except for the Rockman, of course. Not the lying bastard part...that's true. But the checking out part: last week a vendor asked me about retiring since I'll be 65 next spring. I told him hell no: I plan to work until my MS kills me...or if something worse happens. Being a fellow old fart I didn't have to explain what that meant. LOL.

[Tanada]

I see this thread and the Collapse Probably Won't Happen thread as the two main sides of the so called Peak Oil Debate. The self styled Doomers believe collapse will be like a row of Dominoes, everything is now set up so that we will rapidly fall apart once the world can no longer get as much oil as it can afford to burn. On the other side of the coin we have the members accused of being Cornucopians collapse-probably-won-t-happen-pt-2-t71852.html in their outlook, that no matter what the problems are that arise we clever Hominids will find a way to work around them and carry on.

When I joined up to this website I considered myself a Moderate, I believed we would bang our head on lots of problems and find lots of solutions, but things would be far from Perfect.

The longer I have been here and the more life beats down on me the more I have shifted toward the Doomer side, though I am far from their deepest beliefs. We had this wonderful gift of a grace period on the plateau at the top of world peak. We did little to prepare for the down slope that I can see. Yes some people and businesses have installed wind/solar systems for their own microgrid use. Yes some people practiced gardening or planted food forests or did some other thing to be better prepared on an individual or family basis. Our culture on the other hand dug in its heels, threw money at maintaining BAU just as hard as it could and tried whistling its way past the graveyard.

The dominoes are all set to fall in rapid succession and here we are with little tremors and rising winds threatening to start the change reaction.

[kanon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')The dominoes are all set to fall in rapid succession and here we are with little tremors and rising winds threatening to start the change reaction.

[ennui2]

I think it's the failure of humanity to develop holistic thinking. We reach at simple conclusions instead. And so we'll continue playing whack-a-mole.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kanon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')The dominoes are all set to fall in rapid succession and here we are with little tremors and rising winds threatening to start the change reaction.

[Ibon]

In another thread I recently commented that it is not our species that will collapse or go extinct but rather our narratives about how dominant and powerful we are. Adaptability is a hallmark of our species. Humility has been in short supply. The combination of adaptability and humility will emerge as the dominant narrative as a result of upcoming consequences. That is the prerequisite for long term sustainability.

That is the reason I have always been more an advocate that collapse wont happen. But as time has passed I have also tended to become more short term pessimistic as I remain long term optimistic.

To see a future narrative of a humbled and adaptive human self regulating seems to require short term consequences that may well fit the definition of collapse.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') think it's the failure of humanity to develop holistic thinking. We reach at simple conclusions instead. And so we'll continue playing whack-a-mole.

[onlooker]

Yes I also have read that Nature functions like an interrelated Web and it is resilient up to the point when too much of that Web is destroyed or harmed. That is when a tipping point or threshold is reached which brings down the entire system/ecosystem in question. Also, yes ever since the Enlightenment/Renaissance period Mankind seems particularly focused on the mechanistic cause and effect dynamic while also separating the various scientific disciplines. This leads inevitably to a non-holistic linear mode of thinking. In fact, Nature functions as a whole and most often in cycles based on immutable laws that as Tanada states eloquently always end up reasserting themselves. Tipping points or Thresholds are not linear events but exponential and involve not simple singular cause and effect dynamics but multi-faceted diverse processes that usually are interrelated. Equilibrium and stasis are always temporary as Entropy is always present pushing change albeit at times in very gradual time frames.

[Ibon]

I fight entropy every day in my storage room, in the weeds that persist in my garden, in the potholes on our 4WD road. It is a battle never won, only a temporary holding at bay.

This is a metaphor for our whole species, we are only holding at bay the inevitable correction. Patchwork solutions, band aids.

At times noble but profoundly ignorant. Kudzu Ape.

[onlooker]

That recalls Montequest, so persistent and consistent in his mantra of overshoot based on ecological principles in turn based on the laws of physics, biology and chemistry. Why did not humanity listen to the scientists and science from which all of this may have been avoided. After all, is not ultimately Science their to teach us and give us some wisdom in managing our affairs.

[SeaGypsy]

Science is like everything else, a business. Drawing the most leverage where is the most profit. Business & growth always come first, science which gets in the way will naturally be dismissed. Hence so much rhetoric about 'sustainable growth'- pixie dust, but the mantra allows the profit motive to continue.

[onlooker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'S')cience is like everything else, a business. Drawing the most leverage where is the most profit. Business & growth always come first, science which gets in the way will naturally be dismissed. Hence so much rhetoric about 'sustainable growth'- pixie dust, but the mantra allows the profit motive to continue.

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