[dolanbaker]

I'm going out on a limb by saying that the price at the start of the year will be the lowest and would like to change my low to $36

[vtsnowedin]

That might work out for you. I'm thinking that warm weather in the East from El Ninio will save on heating oil and drive prices a little lower before things turn around.

[PeakOiler]

I came across this Reuter's "opinion" article predicting that oil will "blow past $80/barrel in 2016":

Reuters Article

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he next big move in the price of oil will be up. For now, OPEC producers are flooding the market with cheap crude. But low-cost OPEC producers will win the hydrocarbon price war because they can fight harder for longer. And when they win, the price of oil will rise.

[Pops]

Hmmm, this is a tough year
EIA says US down 1.1 total next year
KSA is up 1.5 Iraq another half
Iran may add up to a million, surely a half mil by March
Iraq has grown lots but that's slowing
Bakken export does something, don't know what
baseline production falls slightly

China's industrial profits were down $100 billion in '15 but they haven't tanked, demand is still growing somewhat
IEA predicts slower US growth than this year (2.2mbd 3qtr)
but still up globally 1.2mbd

The US economy is so goofy even the people on Bloomberg this morning look a little dazed when offering forecasts lol


So I'm gonna backpedal a little and say the glut persist all year but builds slow.

so POer if you would revise my guess please


Low 28
high 48
close 48
avg 38

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.')..so POer if you would revise my guess please


Low 28
high 48
close 48
avg 38

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.')..so POer if you would revise my guess please


Low 28
high 48
close 48
avg 38

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'I') think it would be interesting if you would put the EIA, Goldman Sachs, The IEA, OPEC and any other widely published predictions in the chart so we can judge ourselves against the "experts".

[vtsnowedin]

I'd read that as low 26 high 90 and average 58 and stick that in as EIA's unofficial guess just for comparisons sake. They are like weathermen and stick in chance of flurries into every forecast so they can't be pinned down as wrong.

[Tanada]

This link is the EIA chart for 2011-2016 average prices,
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/table ... tcode=2016

Here is a news report about Goldman Sachs forecast for 2016,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he bank now assumes that a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, the dominant North American oil blend, will average $45 through next year — down from $57 a barrel the last time the bank had a forecast.

There's an outside chance the price could fall even lower because "while not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels, which we estimate near $20 a barrel, is becoming greater as storage continues to fill," the bank said.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.')..I would say the GS forecast is 57 high, 45 average, 20 low but that is just my interpretation of the above paragraphs.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/goldman ... -1.3223993

Here is the link for OPEC's December 2015 report, it is a pdf as a flip book,

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/flipbook/M ... 015.html#1

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.')..I would say the GS forecast is 57 high, 45 average, 20 low but that is just my interpretation of the above paragraphs.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/goldman ... -1.3223993

Here is the link for OPEC's December 2015 report, it is a pdf as a flip book,

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/flipbook/M ... 015.html#1

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I') think I've done this game before but I'm not on the spreadsheet.

Please put me down for

HIGH 76.57
LOW 30.00
CLOSE 70.29

Thanks!

--Plantagenet

[salinsky]

I've been hanging in second place most of the past year, but with this new year, I feel a great deal of uncertainty. One wonders why there are not more contestants, there is no need to feel embarrassment if one does poorly. I've been waiting for SteinarN to show his hand, but expect he'll wait until the last day.
Here's my guesses:
High: $51.50 Low: $26.50 Close: 49.50 Avg: 41.50

SAL

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('salinsky', 'I')'ve been hanging in second place most of the past year, but with this new year, I feel a great deal of uncertainty. One wonders why there are not more contestants, there is no need to feel embarrassment if one does poorly. I've been waiting for SteinarN to show his hand, but expect he'll wait until the last day.
Here's my guesses:
High: $51.50 Low: $26.50 Close: 49.50 Avg: 41.50

SAL

[farmlad]

High - 76, low- 26, close - 37, ave- 42 Thanks

[GoghGoner]

I've already lost? Haha. Low price of $34.

[Outcast_Searcher]

High 50
Low 15
Close 35

Average 30


I'm looking for the status quo (with a nasty wash-out at some point) while we wait for the KSA to decide they've done enough destruction to the expensive oil producers. Clearly, I'm guessing the KSA won't pull back on production enough to matter in 2016.

Given my track record in these little contests, this prediction is bound to be completely wrong.

[AutomaticEarth]

I'd like to change my numbers to the following:-

High - 77
Low - 30
Close - 60
Average - 45

Thanks and sorry for the additional work.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AutomaticEarth', 'I')'d like to change my numbers to the following:-

High - 77
Low - 30
Close - 60
Average - 45

Thanks and sorry for the additional work.