[Tanada]

Weeds are not Entropy, weeds take CO2 and organize it into complex carbohydrates in the form of Cellulose.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', ' ')Hence so much rhetoric about 'sustainable growth'- pixie dust, but the mantra allows the profit motive to continue.

[onlooker]

"We'll keep doing what we do until we can't... ...and then we won't." -- James Kunstler

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')hat recalls Montequest, so persistent and consistent in his mantra of overshoot based on ecological principles in turn based on the laws of physics, biology and chemistry. Why did not humanity listen to the scientists and science from which all of this may have been avoided. After all, is not ultimately Science their to teach us and give us some wisdom in managing our affairs.

[ennui2]

Monte, I would have expected you to pivot your rhetoric away from peak-oil per se and more to a general limits-to-growth mantra with an emphasis on AGW, since that is something that is still seizing the headlines (albeit with conservatives firmly rooted in denial still, despite the Pope's conversion, etc...)

So I don't think it's fair to say the public is totally clueless when it comes to limits-to-growth. I think those who are clued into AGW and ecological collapse are currently at the bargaining stage (i.e. technofix).

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'S')o I don't think it's fair to say the public is totally clueless when it comes to limits-to-growth.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
And as long as The Tragedy of the Commons is relevant, it matters little. Are you familiar with Garret Hardin's piece? How do you see a collective awareness ever overcoming it?

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
And as long as The Tragedy of the Commons is relevant, it matters little. Are you familiar with Garret Hardin's piece? How do you see a collective awareness ever overcoming it?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')n a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.

Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.

What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.

[AgentR11]

"no one" would be a false statement. My position has pretty much always been, that demand destruction is not a problem, rather it is the solution. That it would work iteratively, price goes up; inefficient uses get deleted, price falls, some loose uses resume but not all, baseline needs gradually fill in, price rises again, more inefficient and superfluous uses get deleted, price falls. Rinse, repeat.

OTOH, prices will NOT normalize, once the TRC pulled the plug on controls long ago, supply and demand became fully in control, and their long response times guarantee large swings in price. In short, there is no "normal" price. There is only a normal supply/demand/price model.

As to replacing "efficient machines with SUV's"; not really happening since SUV's are reasonably efficient now. Someone going from a Sedan to a regular SUV will not burn that much more fuel; so don't expect demand changes from that side. I'd look more towards folks in India and China buying their FIRST cars and trucks. Going from a 50mpg scooter to a 20mpg car/truck WITH air conditioning.. for hundreds of millions of people could make a huge impact on the demand side, but its a slow process.

So.. a few monster trucks? Nah.
300,000,000+ new/first time ICE car owners. Dat's the ticket.

As to "New Morning" tech and enlightenment? fantasy.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'B')ut I'm not even sure that idea included fuel so cheap that we need to invent new ways to waste it, or can go back to buying monster trucks.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')And post peak prices are certainly starting a pandemic...SUV and car buying for starters, and the new supply is US based, so we don't even have to invade folks to get it, just pony up leasing costs to landowners and drill a well somewhere in North Dakota or Texas.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'B')ut I'm not even sure that idea included fuel so cheap that we need to invent new ways to waste it, or can go back to buying monster trucks.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', ' ')And post peak prices are certainly starting a pandemic...SUV and car buying for starters, and the new supply is US based, so we don't even have to invade folks to get it, just pony up leasing costs to landowners and drill a well somewhere in North Dakota or Texas.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Well..I guess that it is fortunate that organizations like the EIA and IEA didn't fall for only decline, all decline, all the time then? Not sure I'm thrilled with the idea that economists know better how resource development plays out, but they do have the resources and expertise to have known some of those things were about to happen I guess.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')n a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.

Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.

What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', ' ')Yes, I remember the most popular graphics were those charts that had a big wedge for unconventional taking up the slack and everyone swearing up and down that unconventional flow rates and ROI would not be able to pull it off. Well, so far it has.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', ' ')More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?