[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s site administrator you darn well know this has been discussed several times before now. You are perpetrating an administrative sin.

[smiley]

Volkswagen has designed the Beetle which gets the same mileage as a modern hybrid. And they did that 65 years ago. With 21 million sold the VW Beetle is also a bit more of an sales success as the Prius.

It is not an achievement to built a vehicle which gets the mileage of a Prius.

It is an achievement to waste so much resources and technology in doing so.

[FoxV]

well my hope is that out of the hybrid adventure there will be some good technilogical improvements that will either make hybrids much more fuel efficient to be worth their expense (+200 mpg)

or get electric cars going properly (not that fiasco they tried in CA). Already the battery technology is available for cheap (and powerful) electrics, all it realy needs is the manufacturing to ramp things up (and for people to get over being burned by the last electric effort)

[gnm]

Followed the battery link - Those are interesting in that they are fairly light weight but thier life cycle rating is lower than many available AGM and flooded batteries that exist currently. And I am betting that they are VERY expensive. I just bought a couple of 200Ah AGM's for $700.00 ($100.00 shipping) and that is nearly 1.5 times what I could have got the flooded equivalent for (I hate battery maintenence). I think its a safe bet that these would run you about twice what the AGM's go for per Ah (Amp/hour).

So yeah the batteries are here (if you are independently wealthy!)

-G

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'w')ell my hope is that out of the hybrid adventure there will be some good technilogical improvements that will either make hybrids much more fuel efficient to be worth their expense (+200 mpg)

or get electric cars going properly (not that fiasco they tried in CA). Already the battery technology is available for cheap (and powerful) electrics, all it realy needs is the manufacturing to ramp things up (and for people to get over being burned by the last electric effort)

[The_Toecutter]

First of all, that extra price premium is due to the NiMH battery. In the volume the battery is built for these cars, it could go for $150/kWh capacity. But Chevron Texaco owns the patent, and charges thousands per kWh capacity. The pack in the Prius, for instance, is 1.5 kWh. Chevron Texaco has sued companies who copied the battery and made them pay even more in royalties for the patent infringment, driving the price up even more.

Second of all, 200+ mpg cars aren't likely unless they are pure electric. The ICE is not efficient enough to let cars as we know them today achieve that kind of mileage. 120+ mpg for a midsize hybrid that seats five comfortably can be done with extreme reductions in aerodynamic drag. Plug-in hybrids that get 300 mpg or some such nonsense might get that on gasoline not counting in the other energy consumed. But you have to account for the other energy consumed, and that 300 mpg plug in hybrid looks to be more like 90-100 mpg on a 'tank' to wheels basis, both gas tank and battery pack being the point where energy consumption will be measured from. 33.8 kWh of energy in one gallon of gasoline. A pure electric car made from the size of a Prius could do 200 wh/mile or so at 60-70 mph 'tank' to wheels(In this case, the fuel tank being the battery). That's 170 mpg. Factor in all of the energy losses associated with producing and delivering the electricity, that 170 mpg is more like 70 mpg coal to wheels, slightly better than the Prius was as a pure gas car. Improve the power plant efficiency and reduce transmission losses and efficiency goes up accordingly. However, the fuel for that gas Prius, the gasoline, is not a fair comparison t\with the electric vehicle if you do 'tank' to wheels on the gas car for efficiency and 'powerplant' to wheels on the electric. It takes energy to get that oil and turn it into gasoline, ship that oil, ect. That electric car is going to be much more efficient overall than that hybrid can ever hope to be.

Third, most electric cars would charge during offpeak hours to meet 95% of their needs. Knowing this, we can supply 100 million pure EVs with our current grid, perhaps even up to 150 million. Taken from another post of mine: A midsize EV with an aerodynamic body like a Prius converted to pure electric(not plug in hybrid, but gas engine and shit removed) will have an energy efficiency of about 200 wh/mile at 60 mph. 12 kW. The average American drives about 32 miles per day, 12,000 miles per year. So, using a fully electrified Prius as the average(aerodynamic and smaller sports cars and compacts will do better, SUVs and trucks worse), with a 12 kW power demand on average(Half of the driving is done 30 mph in the city, not 70 mph on the highway), were looking at an average of 200 wh/mile, 2400 kWh consumed per year per car average 'battery pack' to wheels. Count in charging losses of 92% and battery losses of 95% and overall consumption from plug in your garage is 230 wh/mile. To count in the occasional long trip using quick chargers which aren't as efficient, we'll make that 250 wh/mile from the plug. So that's now 3000 kWh per car per year. 200 million cars would mean 600,000,000,000 kWh of electricity consumed. According to the CIA world fact book, America as a whole consumes 3.7 trillion kWh per year from the plug(ie. after all transmission and power plant inefficiency losses are accounted for, power consumed). Guess what? 600 billion divided by 3.7 trillion is an increase in electricity demand of only 16.2%. Most of this will be consumed during off peak rates where the grid is only making use of 50% of its capacity or so. So unless all those cars are charging during on peak, we won't need such a drastic increase in generating capacity.

Fourth, Jevon's paradox is not a rule, but a special case that just so happens to be extremely prominent with our current economic system. People are encouraged to consume instead of save. As we are now, most who have spare money simply spend it instead of save it. That doesn't mean they will always spend. Those who grew up in the great depression are likrewise another extreme that saves instead of spends. The corrollary to Jevon's paradox provides an example based exactly on our current economic system of continuing growth. The reality, as us peak oilers understand, is that we don't have the resources for continuing and unlimited growth. Change the economic system and eliminate the need for growth, and you've made some headway with the problem of both PO and Jevon's paradox. The technology is ready, but is humanity?

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '
')Fourth, Jevon's paradox is not a rule, but a special case that just so happens to be extremely prominent with our current economic system. People are encouraged to consume instead of save. As we are now, most who have spare money simply spend it instead of save it. That doesn't mean they will always spend. Those who grew up in the great depression are likrewise another extreme that saves instead of spends. The corrollary to Jevon's paradox provides an example based exactly on our current economic system of continuing growth. The reality, as us peak oilers understand, is that we don't have the resources for continuing and unlimited growth. Change the economic system and eliminate the need for growth, and you've made some headway with the problem of both PO and Jevon's paradox. The technology is ready, but is humanity?

[The_Toecutter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he People who "encouraged to consume" are encouraged to drive cars. They are one in the same. If we continue driving cars, even energy efficient ones, it will mean resources & energy will get sucked away in the process (aka Jevon's Paradox). In our society today cars are not a means to an end but an end in itself. By that I mean cars exist for the purpose for us to devour commodities. There is no reason to expect anything different after PO. Once oil decline sets in the very idea that we should continue driving would be extremely stupid. If we our successful at maintaining traffic jams & car crashes, it would not likely be for long. And then when we are really compelled to dump cars, there will be no chance for us to do anything. Every car built is a wind turbine NOT built. Every freeway built is a hydro site NOT built. Think about it.

We would be far better off getting rid of cars so we can devote our time and resources to more important things.

[DriveElectric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')FoxyV, when are you and other well informed peakers ever going to get it? Improvements of MPG in cars will only waste more energy and create more environmental degradation.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DriveElectric', '
')
Not really. Read a few more threads here in the Energy Technology forum and you will learn a lot about what is going on. There are numerous solutions that are feasible.

[The_Toecutter]

Dub, it may be to your benefit to stop with the insults. Those are in violation of the forum rules.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust go thru a stack of old Popular Mechanics to see it for yourself. Oh but the DriveElectric guy wants us to trust that his techno hype will come for real this time. He's got the research in a lab somewhere to prove it!

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '
')EROI is excellent for industrial hemp. It may not yield as much per acre as palm, but it can be grown on desert land unsuitable for other plants, needs no fertilizers, needs no pesticides, and yields a much higher EROI than any plant out there. Hemp also would help prevent further soil erosion, and is not water intensive like soy or canola would be. Water scarcity can be drastically reduced by lowering environmental pollution which renders unfit for consumption fresh water, and by eating less meat, which livestock is a much heavier consumer of water than food derived from plants. Cutting industrial processes by increasing efficiency also cuts water used in industrial processes.

[mgibbons19]

This thread has suddenly become quite troubling. Mostly because both sides are making good points while being fairly onoxious toward the other. Could cars be made better? yes, certainly. and toejam's electric cars are a really cool example. But what's implied here that is negative about cars is twofold. First, their true costs are not realized. The parking, paving, EMTs, freeways, and so on are all publicly funded so the average citizen has no idea what his/her car is costing. Esp since they try very hard not to add up in their heads the lease/loan costs, gas costs, toll costs, maintenance costs, and insurance costs. These costs add up to so much that they must be depressing to the average American. Better just pay it and don't think about it too much. After all, a car here is a necessity.

Secondly, cars set up a market for space that is also not realized by the general public. Freeways in town = less good town. Parking all over town = negative urban space. Cars require so much space in cities that their accomodation destroys cities. But the average citizen experiences this only as "they need more parking here" and "this neighborhood is really friggin scary" without ever seeing that the two are connected.

Implied in this second point is that cities don't have to suck. They can be beautiful. They can be comfortable. They can be scaled intimately but not cramped. The suburbs may be a great solution to 1898 Manhattan, but why are we building in reaction to 1898 Manhattan? Simply because the average American (myself included) has a knee-jerk reaction to cities as evil.

This is the point that is missed with the name-calling and vitriol. Money spent on more freeways more parking lots more strip malls more bestbuys more walmarts represents money not spent on grassroots retail, on responsible individual homeownership, on pleasant neighborhoods with pleasant parks and so on. Money spent on widescale mileage incentives is not money spent on light and heavy rail.

Ppl will always travel 20 mins to work. The tail end of the curve will always travel 60+. It doesn't matter if it's on foot for 1-4 miles of walking or its in helicopters for 20-200 miles away. This is why we cannot solve the problems with technology. Because the market equilibrium is a balance of time and space - not technology.

And this is why, even though I am a biker, toejam's point is essentially correct. Cars as recreation, for the well to do, or mechanically inclined, are not a problem. Cars as the entireity of our transportation and urban infrastructure is the problem.

Sorry for the long post, but this is one of my pet issues, and both sides deserve a fair and respectful argument.

[dub_scratch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', '
')Sorry for the long post, but this is one of my pet issues, and both sides deserve a fair and respectful argument.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'I') just wish that we as a society would realize this and decided instead to skip this last dreadful step, step back, take a good look, see that we don't need this, and get rid of it. I did and I absolutely have no need for anything like a biofuel car.

[bentstrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', 'I') just wish that we as a society would realize this and decided instead to skip this last dreadful step, step back, take a good look, see that we don't need this, and get rid of it. I did and I absolutely have no need for anything like a biofuel car.

[Starvid]

Hehe, it's quite funny that some of you believe that more efficient cars will increase our oil problems. I sure hope you people drive Hummers!

[The_Toecutter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')mmm. . . . . . OK everybody, lets switch to a vegiterian diet in order to keep having so much fun being stuck in traffic jams. What a deal! And while we are at it, we'll keep pouring our national wealth on all the good stuff we love, freeway ramps, parking lots, parking garages, collision shops, emergency rooms, lawyer offices. Oh, and forget that solar PV collector too. You just won't be able to afford it after forking over the few bucks you have for one of these sustainable bio-hybrid-hyper-ethanol-diesels. You'll just have to sit in the dark between driving times.

[The_Toecutter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')oney spent on more freeways more parking lots more strip malls more bestbuys more walmarts represents money not spent on grassroots retail, on responsible individual homeownership, on pleasant neighborhoods with pleasant parks and so on. Money spent on widescale mileage incentives is not money spent on light and heavy rail.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'T')o think we'd have to starve to continue our driving habits is ludicrous, but depending on how we approach the peak crisis and how much we reduce the amount of driving done and by eliminating an outright need for an automobile, we don't have to be faced with that option.