I wouldn't be too concerned about what Toyota has to say about diesels. The Japanese have long been diesel haters (more so than the US) and prefer to push gasoline/petrol technologies.
Here in Europe we have the opposite situation. Instead of whinging about pollutants, makers like VW and Mercedes-Benz (DaimlerChrysler) are working on systems to supress NOx or storage catalysts to capture it.
Particulate filters are becoming the norm to meet Euro IV emission regulations and economy continues to be 40% better than a regular petrol engine. Use hybrid technology with diesel and you could be looking at 35% plus improvement over hybrid petrols.
Zero sulpher diesel fuel will help emissions too and ensure the Urea technique works.
See:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040417/news_lz1d17diesel.html
Don't forget that diesels output less CO2 than petrols too - such that they are favoured in many European taxation schemes that are aimed at cutting pollution.
Another plus, diesel engines are tougher and longer lasting than petrol engines, and so that potentially means cars spending longer on the road and less being built in a factory - another plus for the environment. There are many reasons for this extra durability, one fundamental reason is the fact that the engines are unstressed. I can drive my diesel car at 30mph in fith gear using no more than 1100rpm. Thanks to the huge amount of torque low-down in the revs, the car isn't labouring or stalling and the engine is barely ticking over. Even at 70mph in fifth gear, the car is still doing no more than 2500rpm.
This amount of torque and the low-revs required make modern diesels very driveable too. So, there's no compromises to make - in fact the overtaking ability is amazing.
I'm amazed that 5 US states have banned the sale of diesels - this is very short sighted. The new emissions control technologies and still improving power will see diesels becoming the engine of choice in Europe.
There is also another important consideration: congestion.
With all roads becoming ever busier, cars are driving more of their journeys at low speed whilst the engine is cold. Diesels produce less pollutants whilst they are cold and yet warm up quicker:
http://text.islington.gov.uk/html/airquality/december/december.html
Quote:
Diesel cars could make a significant impact on air quality in urban areas where most cold starts occur, especially when it is considered that a catalyst on a petrol car would take several minutes to reach its operating temperature
You just can't write off diesel. I don't see a near-term future where everyone drives petrol-electric hybrids. Rather, I see that people in Europe will continue with diesels (and the pollution control will improve) and avoid hybirds due to the extra cost in purchasing and maintenance.
In the US, hybrid gasoline engines will have large success (40-50% of the market) when fuel prises rise enough to make the extra purchase cost insignifcant. Soon, awareness of improving diesel technology will reach US law makers and diesel will take-off, taking a 5-10% chunk of the car/truck market.
Once infrastructure for diesel improves and attitudes change most world markets will harmonize to 40-50% diesel split with many cars being hybrid electric. And that includes the US. IMHO.
I think it's a good point too that we're concerned with Peak Oil and not the environment as such.
In this case diesel just makes perfect sense in trying to reduce oil consumption to maintain a plateau for as long as possible and ensure a smooth transistion to an oil free tomorrow.
No new technology required, just a willingness to ditch those big petrol V8s and a few pumps changed to DERV.
Burning the midnight oil, whilst I still can.